1. Ozone and SO2 NAAQS Implementation Updates
FINAL 9/29/15
SCOTT MATHIAS
Sesarm/metro-4 fall AIR DIRECTOR’S Meeting
October 27-28, 2015

2. Overview Ozone NAAQS Implementation Update Exceptional Events Updates
SO2 NAAQS Implementation and Designations

3. NAAQS Reviews: Status Update (as of October 1, 2015)
Ozone
Lead
Primary
NO2
Primary SO2
Secondary NO2 and SO2 PM CO
Last Review Completed (final rule signed)
Mar 2008
Oct 2008
Jan 2010
Jun 2010
Mar 2012
Dec 2012
Aug 2011
Recent or Upcoming Major Milestone(s)1
Oct 1,
Final rule signed
January 5, 2015
Proposed rule published in FR
April 6, 2015
Comment period closed
June 2-3, 2015
CASAC meeting to discuss 2nd draft ISA and REA Planning document
August 13, 2015
CASAC teleconference to discuss letters on 2nd draft ISA and REA Planning Document
Fall 2015
1st draft ISA
Draft IRP
Dec 2015
TBD3
Additional information regarding current and previous NAAQS reviews is available at:
1 IRP – Integrated Review Plan; ISA – Integrated Science Assessment; REA – Risk and Exposure Assessment; PA – Policy Assessment
2 Indicates court-ordered deadline
3 TBD = to be determined

4. Anticipated NAAQS Implementation Milestones (updated October 1, 2015)
DRAFT - DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
6/4/2018
Anticipated NAAQS Implementation Milestones (updated October 1, 2015)
Pollutant
Final NAAQS
Date
Designations Effective
Infrastructure SIP Due
Attainment Plans Due
Attainment Date
PM2.5 (2006)
Oct 2006
Dec 2009
Oct 2009
Dec 2014
Dec 2015 (Mod)
Dec 2019 (Ser)
Pb (2008)
Oct 2008
Dec
Oct 2011
June
Dec
NO2 (2010) (primary)
Jan 2010
Feb 2012
Jan 2013
N/A
SO2 (2010)
(primary)
June 2010
Oct 2013
(+3 rounds)
June 2013
April 2015
(2018, 2019, 2022)
Oct 2018
(2023, 2024, 2027)
Ozone (2008)
Mar 2008
July 2012
Mar 2011
Mid
Mid
PM2.5 (2012)
Dec 2012
Apr 2015
Dec 2015
Oct 2016
Dec 2021 (Mod)
Dec 2025 (Ser)
Ozone (2015)
Oct 2015
Dec 2017*
Dec * *
Section 110 plans will be needed for multiple NAAQS in coming years.
* Tentative. Could be later if 2017 ozone data are considered.

5. 2008 Ozone NAAQS Implementation
46 Areas designated nonattainment effective July 20, 2012.
Final 2008 Ozone NAAQS SIP Requirements Rule: “Implementation of the 2008 NAAQS for Ozone: State Implementation Plan Requirements Rule” published March 6, (80 FR 12264).
Contains final rules to interpret CAA ozone implementation requirements for the 2008 NAAQS, and guidance on many aspects of the attainment planning requirements for designated nonattainment areas.
Revoked 1997 NAAQS effective April 6, 2015 and established anti- backsliding requirements.

6. 2008 Ozone NAAQS Implementation: KEY DATES
Due July 2014 – Emissions statement rule, emissions inventory, and RACT SIPs
Due July 2015 – Attainment plans and demonstrations for Moderate areas
July 20, 2015 – Marginal area attainment date (attainment determined by air quality data)
Due early 2016* – RACT SIPs, attainment plans and demonstrations for reclassified Moderate areas (* final date TBD by rulemaking)
Due July 2016 – Attainment plans and demonstrations for Serious and above areas
July 20, 2018 – Moderate area attainment date (attainment determined by air quality data)

7. Marginal area attainment date was July 20, 2015.
2008 Ozone NAAQS Implementation: Proposed Actions for Marginal Nonattainment Areas
Marginal area attainment date was July 20, 2015.
On August 27, 2015, EPA proposed several actions for 36 Marginal areas:
Determinations of attainment by the attainment date proposed for 17 areas.
One-year extensions of the attainment date proposed for 8 areas.
Reclassification to Moderate due to failure to attain by the attainment date proposed for 11 areas.
Proposal also includes 2 options for Moderate area attainment plan due date:
Beginning of each area’s 2017 ozone season, or
January 1, 2017 (for all seasons).
Comment period closed September 28, 2015.
Clean Air Act requires EPA to take final action by January 20, 2016.

8. Progress on Ozone NAAQS Attainment
(2004 Designations)
2008 Ozone
(2012 Designations)
Initial Nonattainment Areas
115 46
Areas Redesignated to Attainment 80
(prior to revocation) 2
Current Nonattainment Areas 35 45
Clean Data Determinations 25 1*
Proposed Redesignations/
Redesignation Substitutes 1
(as of September 10, 2015)
Current Nonattainment Areas is 45
The number is 45 because the Charlotte area is split into two areas - NC has been redesignated to maintenance and SC is still considered nonattainment.
* Determinations of attainment by the attainment date proposed for 17 areas on August 27, 2015.

9. 2015 OZONE STANDARDS Promulgated October 1, 2015.
Will be effective 60 days after publication in the Federal Register.
Memo issued by Acting Assistant Administrator on October 1, 2015 outlines EPA’s plans for addressing issues related to:
Guidance available to agencies;
Ensuring major source permitting is effective and efficient;
Designating areas;
Background ozone;
Interstate ozone transport;
The challenges of reducing ozone in California;
Managing monitoring networks;
Emissions from wildland fires; and
Transportation planning.

10. After NAAQS Promulgation
Anticipated Schedule for 2015 Ozone NAAQS Implementation Rules/Guidance/Tools
Action
After NAAQS Promulgation
Planned Dates
Final 2015 Ozone NAAQS revision, monitoring rules, exceptional event demonstration schedule, and PSD permit grandfathering provision
Upon promulgation
October 2015
Propose Exceptional Events Rule revision and guidance on wildfire-related ozone demonstrations
1 month
November 2015
Area designations guidance (including Rural Transport Areas)
4 months
February 2015
Final update to PSD permit modeling guideline (Appendix W; proposed July 2015)
8 months
June 2016
Final Exceptional Events Rule revision and guidance on wildfire-related ozone demonstrations
10 months
August 2016
States submit area designation recommendations
12 months
October 2016
Interstate ozone transport contribution assessment NODA
Propose nonattainment area rules/guidance (including area classifications, SIP due dates, nonattainment NSR provisions)
Final designations, classifications, and nonattainment area SIP rules/guidance
24 months
October 2017
Update to transportation conformity guidance
25 months
November 2017
States submit Infrastructure and Transport SIPs
36 months
October 2018
States submit Attainment plans
5-6 years
Nonattainment Area Attainment Dates (Marginal – Extreme)
5-22 years
Rev

11. Area Designations
Final area designations due Fall based on final DVs (120-day letters by June 2017).
Early-certified 2017 data may also be relevant to final designations.
We expect state designation recommendations to be based on and preliminary 2016 data, including any exceptional event considerations.
Exceptional event demonstration submission deadlines:
October 1, 2016 for events
May 31, 2017 for 2016 events
Nonattainment area classification scheme
Percent-above-standard approach?
Voluntary reclassifications

12. Design value thresholds 1-hour ozone (ppm)
Area class
 Design value thresholds
1-hour ozone (ppm)
Percent above 1-hour NAAQS of ppm
Class DV Thresholds (ppm)
0.075
0.070*
Marginal
from
0.121 NA
0.076
0.071
up to
0.138
15.00%
0.086
0.081
Moderate
From
0.160
33.33%
0.100
0.093
Serious
0.180
50.00%
0.113
0.105
Severe-15
0.190
58.33%
0.119
0.111
Severe-17
0.280
133.33%
0.175
0.163
Extreme
Equal to or above
* For discussion purposes. Final thresholds will be established through notice-and-comment rulemaking.

13. (213 counties)
(28 counties)

14. FREQUENT Implementation QUESTIONS
Timing of revocation for 2008 ozone NAAQS?
What are the anti-backsliding requirements for the NAAQS?
For nonattainment areas bumped up to Moderate for 2008 NAAQS, will states owe an attainment demo?
For areas bumped up to Moderate for 2008 NAAQS, will states need to provide a separate RACT SIP or can they complete the RACT requirement for both 2008 and 2015 NAAQS at once?
Flexibility for VOC RACT or VOC NSR in NOx limited areas?
RFP accounting: Can out-of-area reductions be used for compliance?
Others?

15. Ozone from Background Sources
Background ozone refers to ozone that forms from natural sources, such as wildfires or stratospheric intrusions, and from man-made pollution from sources outside the U.S.
EPA is planning for further discussions with stakeholders on assessing areas for high background ozone and on applicable policies and tools, including:
Exceptional event exclusions
Area designations and rural transport areas
Section 179B international emissions
Potential stakeholder discussion questions: 
From the stakeholder perspective, what additional data elements and/or model improvements are needed to better characterize background O3 levels across the U.S.?
From the stakeholder perspective, has EPA properly characterized the various CAA provisions under consideration for areas influenced by background O3?
Are there sufficient technical tools and data available to make the demonstrations necessary to legally invoke relevant CAA provisions?
How should background O3 be treated in modeling accompanying Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) permits?

16. Figure 2-15, EPA Policy Assessment
Figure 2-15, EPA Policy Assessment. Distributions of the relative proportion of USB O3 to total O3, from 2007 CAMx source apportionment modeling, binned by model MDA8 O3.
>60 ppb =
Illustration

17. OZONE Permitting Recap of final PSD permit grandfathering provision
Are state permit authorities using this provision?
Plans for issuing ozone SIL and MERPs guidance
PSD Offsets (see 40 CFR (b)(3))
Nonattainment NSR Offsets
Preparing for future nonattainment
Interpollutant substitution

18. Current Thinking on Exceptional Events Rule Rule Revisions

19. Current Thinking: Wildfire/Ozone Exceptional Events Implementation Guidance
Full document name: Draft Guidance on the Preparation of Exceptional Events Demonstrations for Wildfire Events that May Influence Ozone Concentrations
What does the draft guidance do?
Incorporates and applies the proposed rule revisions to wildfire/ozone events.
Provides example analyses, conclusion statements, and technical tools that air agencies can use to provide evidence that the wildfire event influenced the monitored ozone concentration.
Identifies fire and monitor-based characteristics that would allow for a streamlined demonstration package.
Invites comment on the appropriateness of either expanding the wildfire/ozone guidance, or developing a separate guidance document, to specifically address demonstration components for prescribed fires.

20. 2010 SO2 NAAQS Implementation
EPA revised primary SO2 standard on June 3, 2010 (75 ppb/1- hour).
29 areas designated nonattainment effective October 4, 2013.
Final Guidance for 1-hr SO2 NAAQS Nonattainment Area SIP Submissions issued on April 23, 2014.
EPA regional offices are working to assist states with SO2 NA areas in applying this guidance to develop SIPs, redesignate areas, etc.
Attainment plans for 29 areas currently designated nonattainment were due April 4, 2015.

21. SO2 NAAQS Data Requirements Rule
Final Data Requirements Rule, issued on August 10, 2015, establishes requirements for air agencies to monitor or model ambient SO2 levels in areas with largest sources of SO2 emissions to help implement the 1- hour SO2 NAAQS.
At a minimum, air agencies must characterize air quality around sources that emit 2,000 tons per year (tpy) or more of SO2 or adopt enforceable emission limits that ensure that the source will not emit more than 2,000 tpy of SO2.
Based on 2011 emissions data, a threshold of 2,000 tpy accounts for approximately 412 sources and covers 89% of U.S. SO2 emissions.
Based on more recent data, it is estimated that about 10% fewer sources now exceed this threshold.
Final rule establishes a schedule for air agencies to characterize air quality and to provide that air quality data to the EPA. It does not establish a designations schedule.

22. SO2 NAAQS Data Requirements Rule: Implementation Timeline
January 15, 2016: Air agency identifies sources exceeding threshold and other sources for which air quality will be characterized.
July 1, 2016: Air agency specifies (for each identified source) whether it will monitor air quality, model air quality, or establish an enforceable limit.
Air agency also accordingly submits a revised monitoring plan, modeling protocols, or descriptions of planned limits on emissions to less than 2,000 tpy.
January 2017
New monitoring sites must be operational by January 1, 2017.
Modeling analyses must be submitted to EPA by January 13, 2017.
Documentation of federally enforceable emission limits and compliance must be submitted to EPA by January 13, 2017.
Early 2020: Monitoring sites will have 3 years of quality-assured data which must be submitted to EPA.

23. 2010 SO2 NAAQS Designations
Court order issued on March 2, 2015 by U.S. District Court for Northern California establishes the following deadlines consistent with a settlement with original plaintiffs:
July 2, The EPA must complete a round of designations for areas associated with 68 EGUs in 24 states and any undesignated areas with violating monitors (based on data).
December 31, The EPA must complete an additional round of designations for any area a state has not elected to monitor per the provisions of the DRR starting January 1, 2017.
December 31, The EPA must complete all remaining designations (primarily expected to be areas where states have elected to monitor per the provisions of the DRR).
Plaintiff states have appealed the March 2, 2015 court order, and in a separate action, North Carolina has filed its own designations deadline suit.

24. 2010 SO2 Designations Due BY July 2, 2016 Under COURT ORDER
Includes areas with a monitored violation of the 2010 SO2 NAAQS (based on data).
Preliminarily (based on final 2012 – 2014 data):
Chatham County, Georgia
Hawaii County, Hawaii
Iron County, Missouri
Williams County, North Dakota
Brown County, Wisconsin
Carbon County, Wyoming

25. 2010 SO2 Designations Due by July 2, 2016 Under court order
Includes areas where there are sources (electric power plants) that as of March 2, 2015, have not been “announced for retirement,” and meet one of the following emissions thresholds:
16,000 tons of emitted in 2012 or
2,600 tons of SO2 emitted in 2012 with an average emission rate of at least pounds of SO2 per mmBtu.
“Announced for Retirement”
Any stationary source in the United States with a coal-fired unit that as of January 1, 2010, had a capacity of over five (5) megawatts (MW); and
That has announced as of March 2, 2015, that it will cease burning coal at that unit through a company public announcement, public utilities commission filing, consent decree, public legal settlement, final state or federal permit filing, or other similar means of communication.
Yields 68 sources in 24 states.

26. No later than September 18, 2015
Schedule for Completing 2010 SO2 NAAQS Designations Due by July 2, 2016
Milestone
Date
Court Order
March 2, 2015
Impacted states may submit updated recommendations and supporting information for area designations to the EPA
No later than September 18, 2015
States requested to review any third party information received by the EPA
No later than November 17, 2015
The EPA notifies impacted states concerning any intended modifications to their recommendations (120-day letters)
On or about January 22, 2016, but absolutely no later than 120 days prior to final designations (March 2, 2016)
End of 30-day public comment period
On or about March 4, 2016
Impacted states provide additional information to demonstrate why an EPA modification is inappropriate
On or about April 8, 2016
The EPA promulgates final SO2 area designations (no later than 16 months from Court Order)
No later than July 2, 2016

27. Unclassifiable DESIGNATIONS considerations
*** [Internal - Deliberative] ***
Unclassifiable DESIGNATIONS considerations
“Unclassifiable” = An area where the EPA cannot determine based on available information whether the area is or is not meeting the 2010 SO2 NAAQS and whether the area contributes to a violation in a nearby area.
See “Updated Guidance for Area Designations for the 2010 Primary Sulfur Dioxide NAAQS”, Attachment 2, March 20, 2015.
The SO2 DRR requires states to characterize air quality in any area previously designated unclassifiable, in the same manner as it requires air quality characterization for areas that have not yet been designated.
Any additional information developed pursuant to the SO2 DRR for areas initially designated unclassifiable, will be used to inform possible future actions by the EPA or the state (e.g., to determine whether the area is attaining or not attaining the standard, and possibly change the area’s designation).
Additional guidelines will be assessed on a case-by-case basis.
See SO2 Data Requirements Rule – 80 FR page (August 21, 2015).