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Figure 4. Sensitivity of illustrative simulated cumulative US deaths to cigarettes per day (CPD) reduction and to Excess Risk transition rates. See text.

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Presentation on theme: "Figure 4. Sensitivity of illustrative simulated cumulative US deaths to cigarettes per day (CPD) reduction and to Excess Risk transition rates. See text."— Presentation transcript:

1 Figure 4. Sensitivity of illustrative simulated cumulative US deaths to cigarettes per day (CPD) reduction and to Excess Risk transition rates. See text for scenario descriptions. From: Population Modeling of Modified Risk Tobacco Products Accounting for Smoking Reduction and Gradual Transitions of Relative Risk Nicotine Tob Res. 2017;19(11): doi: /ntr/ntx070 Nicotine Tob Res | © The Author Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please

2 Figure 3. Example individual smoking history and risks
Figure 3. Example individual smoking history and risks. Top: a smoker initiates smoking at age 18, reduces cigarettes per day (CPD) by half at age 35, and quits at age 40. Bottom: Excess Risk (ER) rises or falls gradually after each change toward the equilibrium ER. From: Population Modeling of Modified Risk Tobacco Products Accounting for Smoking Reduction and Gradual Transitions of Relative Risk Nicotine Tob Res. 2017;19(11): doi: /ntr/ntx070 Nicotine Tob Res | © The Author Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please

3 Figure 2. Modeling of former smoker relative risks by age, age quit, and sex.<sup>15</sup> Relative risks of death decrease with age (though absolute risks still increase sharply with age) and decay approximately exponentially after quitting. Decay rates are slower at older ages. The same exponential fits were used for men and women due to negligible differences. From: Population Modeling of Modified Risk Tobacco Products Accounting for Smoking Reduction and Gradual Transitions of Relative Risk Nicotine Tob Res. 2017;19(11): doi: /ntr/ntx070 Nicotine Tob Res | © The Author Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please

4 Figure 1. Relative risk of death versus cigarettes per day, and fitted curve. Relative risk (RR) increases with CPD, though RRs vary by study and may increase with years smoking. Differences in sex were small and therefore ignored. A logarithmic curve served to fit the data. From: Population Modeling of Modified Risk Tobacco Products Accounting for Smoking Reduction and Gradual Transitions of Relative Risk Nicotine Tob Res. 2017;19(11): doi: /ntr/ntx070 Nicotine Tob Res | © The Author Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please

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