1. Developing methods and tools for local, target-oriented, action selection processes
Markus Robèrt, PhD Royal Institute of Technology Charlotta Palmlund, Project Manager Feasability studies Swedish Transport Administration
Our presentation is about a research project performed by KTH and financed by STA

2. Content Preparatory Studies and the challenges we aim to address
The research project: Transforming national targets to local target scenarios and action plans according to the CERO-methodology

3. Preparatory Studies and the challenges we aim to address
Bakade in denna rubrik i nästa bild…

4. New Government bill
“The formal planning of individual road and rail projects should be preceded by a Preparatory Study which means an unprejudiced multimodal analysis with application of the Four Step Principle.”
Rethink
Optimise
Improve
Invest

5. Experiences from Preparatory Studies
The contradiction: Applying the Four Step Principle and starting from a blank page
Same general gross list of potential soft measures in all studies (carpool, walking school buses etc.)
Unsatisfying work shop format – a demand for new tools
Measures/actions lacking proven connection to
Specific targets for each study, such as reliable travel times with PT
National targets, such as CO2-reduction
Hard to find relevant measures without knowledge about local conditions, such as travel behavior. Maybe it would be possible to improve the method of generating measures in Preparatory studies using the Cero methodology?
=> A need for back casting for a target oriented selection of locally specific measures/packages

6. The case: Preparatory Study for the Urban Area ”Solna-Sundbyberg-Bromma”
Political demand: New housing for ~ inhabitants…
…while air quality and traffic noise is an obstacle for developments.
Overall aim of the study: “To create conditions to develop an accessible, dense and attractive urban area"
The area is not very ”City like” at the moment
The amount of car traffic makes travel times unreliable for all transport modes
Fragmented area with roads and railways that constitute barriers and a lay out that is hard for cyclists and pedestrians to get an overview of
Utvecklingen av Den täta staden ska bidra till riksdagens etappmål om begränsad klimatpåverkan

7. 60 percent of the car trips are generated by people commuting to work in to the area
~ (52%)
~ (25%)
~4 300 (8%)
It’s not possible to be unprejudised – we all had preconceptions about car use in the area going in to the study, so we made a analyzis of travel behaviour.
~9 400 (15%)

8. The research project applied in Large Work Place Areas
Relevant measures to reach the local targets:
Well connected cycling network
Measures to prioritise Public Transport
Reduce the number of car trips to enable the urban developments
Focus on large Work Place Areas due to the amount of car commuting to the area
The question from Trafikverket to Markus was: if it would be possible to upscale the Cero method from indiviual companies to larger geographical areas? The purpose would be to find local measures within the first three steps of the four step principle, relevant for the specific targets.

9. 2. The research project: Transforming national targets to local target scenarios and action plans
Eller är det “New tool for local, target-oriented, action selection process”?

10. Choosing target parameters
CO2-equivalents (Swedish national transport target: 40% to 2020)
Kilometers per travel mode
Number of trips
Improved population density (given by per capita figures)
Aggregate travel time (number of hours)
Health indicators (physical active commuting kJ)
%CO2

11. The CERO-methodology

12. Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions (commute trips)
13 car commuters switch to public transport
Train tickets to 4 commuters with longest distance
Encourage 31 car commuters to renewable fuel cars
Allow telecommuting at least once a month
Offer eco-driving to at least 115 car commuters
Encourage cycling to 36 car commuters ….

13. CERO-tool for building target scenarios

14. Applying the CERO-database… Travel data from >150 000 observations

15. To simulate realistic travel volumes...
Estimate travel time and distance from a probability distribution in the CERO-database
- Geographic location
- type of organization
Utilize a population density map in the country
Estimate a transport choice model by applying the CERO database

16. Turning theory into practice in workshops

18. Review and defense of each group’s target scenario and action plan…
Each of the four groups presented their target scenarios and adherent action plans
Feedback from other groups
Are the set of actions balanced to the efficiency targets in the scenarios?
Deadlines and feasibility?
Plans for the process, anchoring, general advice forward?

19. An itterative process between stakeholders…

20. Feedback from the planning group…
This target-oriented approach was less “fluffy and fuzzy” but needs more resources to drive the process forward
Teach the teachers and provide external support with anchoring at the project participants' organisations
Detailed cost-benefit analyses and traffic modelling would benefit the defined target scenarios to achieve priority
Transport targets and policy objectives need to be adapted specifically to local conditions and accessibility targets

21. Next step: Horizon 2020 ”GrowSmarter” Apply the CERO-Action Selection Process in Barcelona, Köln, Stockholm

22. Thank you!
Markus Robèrt, PhD, Royal Institute of Technology
Charlotta Palmlund, Swedish Transport Administration