1. Invited Presentation World Forum on Shooting Activities
Gary Mauser
Professor emeritus

2. Would banning firearms reduce murder and suicide?
A review of international evidence

3. Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy Spring 2007 Vol 30 (2)
Don B. Kates
Gary A. Mauser

4. Don B. Kates Gary A. Mauser American Criminologist
Professor of law (ret.)
Pacific Research Institute,
San Francisco, CA, USA
Gary A. Mauser
Canadian criminologist
Professor emeritus
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby, BC, Canada

5. Claim
The United States has the industrialized world’s highest murder rate because of high availability of guns
Facts
Russia has a much higher murder rate
In general, higher gun ownership rates are associated with lower homicide rates
(both internationally and intra-nationally)

6. Comparing homicide rates: United States and Russia (per 100,000 people)
Year
USA
Russia (USSR)
1960s
5.5 14
1990s
8.1 24
2002
5.6
20.5
2009
5.0 15
Sources: Russia and USSR: W A Pridemore, Using newly available homicide data to debunk two myths about violence in an international context, 5 Homicide Studies, 267, The 2002 homicide rate come from JURISTAT: Homicide in Canada (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics).
United States: FBI UCR data

7. Claim
Europe has low murder rates because of stringent gun control
Facts
Europe had low murder rates before gun controls introduced in twentieth century
Research does not support effectiveness of stringent gun controls

8. Notes, Tables 1 – 2
Tables cover all the Continental European nations for which the two data sets given are both available. In every case we have given the homicide data for 2003 or the closest year thereto because that is the year of the publication from which the gun ownership data are taken. That publication is the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, SMALL ARMS SURVEY 2003 (Oxford U. Press 2003) at pp. 64 and 65, tables
The homicide rate data come from the pamphlets JURISTAT: Homicide in Canada (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics) for the years

9. Table 1 Gun ownership and murder rates
Nation
Murder rate
(per 100,000)
Gun ownership (guns per 100,000)
Murder rate year
Russia
20.54
4,000
2002
Lithuania
11.70
1998
Hungary
2.22
2,000
2003
Finland
1.98
39,000
2004
Sweden
1.87
24,000
2001
Poland
1.79
1,500
France
1.65
30,000
Gun Policy gives a somewhat different figure for Lithuanian gun ownership, 2.6 firearms per 100 people, or 2,600 per 100,000. But the year is not given. The figures in Table 1 come from the Swiss Small Arms Survey.

10. Table 1 (cont’d) Gun ownership and murder rates
Nation
Murder rate
(per 100,000)
Gun ownership
(guns per 100,000)
Murder rate year
Denmark
1.21
18,000
2003
Holland
1.20
300
2002
Greece
1.12
11,000
Switzerland
0.99
16,000
Germany
10,000
Luxembourg
0.90
Norway
0.81
36,000
2001
Austria
0.80
17,000

11. Banning handguns
Restricting access to handguns does not correlate with lower murder rates
Countries that ban handguns typically have higher murder rates than neighboring countries

12. Table 2 Comparing murder rates of neighboring European nations
Handgun policy
Murder rate
(per 100,000)
Year
Belarus
Banned
10.4
Late 1990s
Poland
Allowed
1.98
2003
Russia
20.54
2002
Source: Homicide rates from 'Homicide in Canada, 2004,” Mia Dauvergne, Juristat, vol. 25, no. 6, Can Centre for Justice Statistics, Stats Can Homicide in Canada, 2003,” Mia Dauvergne, Juristat, vol. 24, no. 8, Can Centre for Justice Statistics, Stats Can Homicide in Canada, 2002,” Joseé Savoie, Juristat, vol. 23, no. 8, Can Centre for Justice Statistics, Stats Can Homicide in Canada, 2001,” Mia Dauvergne, Juristat, vol. 22, no. 7, Can Centre for Justice Statistics, Stats Can. 2002

13. Table 2 cont’d Comparing murder rates of neighboring European nations
Handgun policy
Murder rate
(per 100,000)
Year
Russia
Banned
20.54
2002
Finland
Allowed
1.98
2004
Norway
0.81
2001
Note: After publication, a few errors in this table were discovered in the sources, specifically,
the murder rate for Luxembourg and the gun ownership rate for Germany.

14. Explanatory Note to Table 3
It bears emphasis that the following data come from a special U.N. report whose data are not fully comparable to those in Tables 1 and 2 because they cover different years and derive from substantially differing sources.

15. Do ordinary people murder?
Table 3 shows European countries with descending order of murder rate
No apparent correlation between murder and civilian firearms ownership

16. Table 3 - Eastern Europe Gun ownership and murder rates
Nation
Murder rate (year)
Rate of gun ownership
Russia
20.54 [2002]
4,000
Moldova
8.13 [2000]
1,000
Slovakia
2.65 [2000]
3,000
Romania
2.50 [2000]
300
Macedonia
2.31 [2000]
16,000
Hungary
2.22 [2003]
2,000
Sources: Gun ownership rates from Small Arms Survey 2003, Tables 2.2 and 2.3
Murder rates from JURISTAT: Homicide in Canada (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics) for the years and from the Seventh United Nations Survey of Crime Trends and Operations of Criminal Justice Systems, covering the period (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention.).

17. Table 3 (cont’d) - Eastern Europe Gun ownership and murder rates
Nation
Murder rate (year)
Rate of gun ownership
Finland
1.98 [2004]
39,000
Poland
1.79 [2003]
1,500
Slovenia
1.81 [2000]
5,000
Cz. Republic
1.69 [2000]
Greece
11,000

18. Is the United States uniquely violent?
Table 4 shows countries in descending order of combined murder and suicide rates
The United States does not have the highest intentional death rate. It falls midway in this collection

19. Table 4 – Intentional Deaths: United States vs. Continental Europe
Nation
Suicide
Murder
Combined rates
Russia
41.2
30.6
71.8
Estonia
40.1
22.2
62.3
Latvia
40.7
18.2
58.9
Lithuania
45.6
11.7
57.3
Belarus
27.9
10.4
38.3
Hungary
32.9
3.5
36.4
Ukraine
22.5
11.3
33.8
Slovenia
28.4
2.4
30.4
Finland
27.2
2.9
30.1
1. Based in general on U.N. Demographic Yearbook (1998) as reported in David C. Stolinsky, "America: The Most Violent Nation?" Medical Sentinel v. 5 (# ) It should be understood that, though the 1998 YEARBOOK gives figures for as late as 1996, the figures are not necessarily for that year. The YEARBOOK contains the latest figure each nation has provided the U.N. which may be 1996, 1995, or 1994.
2. The Swiss homicide figure Stolinsky, supra, reports is an error because it combines attempts with actual murders. We have computed the Swiss murder rate by averaging the 1994 and 1995 Swiss National Police figures for actual murders in those years given in R.A.I. Munday & J.A. Stevenson, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE DEBATE BEFORE LORD CULLEN (Essex, Eng., Piedmont: 1996) at p. 268.

20. Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths: United States vs
Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths: United States vs. Continental Europe
Nation
Suicide
Murder
Combined rates
Denmark
22.3
4.9
27.2
Croatia
22.8
3.3
26.1
Austria
22.2
1.0
23.2
Bulgaria
17.3
5.1
22.4
France
20.8
1.1
21.9
Switzerland
21.4
24.1
Belgium
18.7
1.7
20.4
United States
11.6
7.8
19.4
Poland
14.2
2.8
17.0
Note: These figures include all suicides and murders, not just suicides or murders involving firearms.

21. Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths: United States vs
Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths: United States vs. Continental Europe
Nation
Suicide
Murder
Combined rates
Germany
15.8
1.1
16.9
Romania
12.3
4.1
16.4
Sweden
15.3
1.0
16.3
Norway
0.8
13.1
Holland
9.8
1.2
11.0
Italy
8.2
1.7
9.9
Portugal
Spain
8.1
0.9
9.0
Greece
3.3
1.3
4.6
Note: These figures include all suicides and murders, not just suicides or murders involving firearms.

22. Notes, Table 4
1. Based in general on U.N. Demographic Yearbook (1998) as reported in David C. Stolinsky, "America: The Most Violent Nation?" Medical Sentinel v. 5 (# ) It should be understood that, though the 1998 YEARBOOK gives figures for as late as 1996, the figures are not necessarily for that year. The YEARBOOK contains the latest figure each nation has provided the U.N. which may be 1996, 1995, or 1994.
2. The Swiss homicide figure Stolinsky, supra, reports is an error because it combines attempts with actual murders. We have computed the Swiss murder rate by averaging the 1994 and 1995 Swiss National Police figures for actual murders in those years given in R.A.I. Munday & J.A. Stevenson, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE DEBATE BEFORE LORD CULLEN (Essex, Eng., Piedmont: 1996) at p. 268.

23. More guns, more death?
Does access to firearms by civilians increase murder rates and suicide rates?
No apparent correlation between total intentional death rate and civilian firearms ownership

24. Table 5 European Gun/Handgun Violent Death
Nation
Suicide
w /handgun
Murder
w/ handgun
Percent households w/ guns
Percent households w/ handguns
Belgium
18.7
1.7
16.6%
6.8%
France
20.8
1.1
22.6%
5.5%
W Germany
15.8
8.9%
6.7%
Holland
9.8
1.2
1.9%
1.2%
Italy
8.2
16%
Norway
12.3
0.8
32%
3.8%
Sweden
15.3
1.3
15.1%
1.5%
Switzerland
27.2%
12.2%
Source: Household firearms ownership British Home Office figures published in R. Munday and JA Stevenson, Guns and Violence: The debate before Lord Cullen, (1996)

25. Notes, Table 5
1. As to derivation of the homicide rates see Table 1, note 1. The data on household firearms ownership come from British Home Office figures printed in R.A.I. Munday & J.A. Stevenson, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE DEBATE BEFORE LORD CULLEN (Essex, Eng., Piedmont: 1996) pp. 30 and 275.

26. Table 6 European Firearms-Violent Deaths
Nation
Suicide
Suicide with gun
Murder
Murder with gun
Guns per 100,000 population
Austria
N/A
2.14
0.54
41.02
Belarus
27.26
9.86
16.5
Czech Rep.
9.88
1.01
2.80
0.92
27.58
Estonia
39.99
3.63
22.11
6.2
28.56
Finland
27.28
5.78
3.25
0.87
411.20
Germany
15.80
1.23
1.81
0.21
122.56
Greece
3.54
1.30
1.33
0.55
77.00
Source: Report to the Secretary General on April 25, E/CN.15/1997/4. UN Economic and Social Council, Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice, Gun ownership is based upon random telephone surveys.

27. Table 6 (cont’d) European Firearms-Violent Deaths
Nation
Suicide
Suicide with gun
Murder
Murder with gun
Guns per 100,000 population
Hungary
33.34
0.88
4.07
0.47
15.54
Moldova
N/A
17.06
0.63
6.61
Poland
14.23
0.16
2.61
0.27
5.30
Romania
4.32
0.12
2.97
Slovakia
13.24
0.58
2.38
0.36
31.91
Spain
5.92
1.58
0.19
64.69
Sweden
15.65
1.95
1.35
0.31
246.65
Source: A special UN report. The data are not directly comparable with Tables 4 and 5

28. Banning guns does not reduce murder rates

29. Irish murder incidents before and after 1972 handgun ban
Source: Garda Stochana Annual Reports
Note 1: Data not available for 1996
Note 2: The population of the Republic of Ireland grew from 2.9 million in 1950 to 3.8 million in 2000.

30. Jamaican murder rates before and after 1976 firearm ban
Source: Professor A. Francis, University of the West Indies
Note: The population of Jamaica grew from 1.87 million in 1970 to 2.58 million in 2000 according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica.

31. Explanatory Notes for Subsequent Chart
Recently published data confirm earlier analyses by Kates-Mauser that firearms ownership and homicide rates are not positively correlated internationally
Civilian firearms ownership (shown by red line) increase from left to right. Source: UN Office on Drugs and Crime, Global Study on Homicide, 2011
Homicide rates (shown by vertical blue bars) from the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, SMALL ARMS SURVEY 2007
In general, nations with higher gun ownership rates (found at right) are associated with lower homicide rates

32. Homicide rates and firearms ownership in Europe

33. Caveat The Kates-Mauser study is based on the best available data
Murder and suicide rates are government sources
Firearms ownership rates provided by United Nations or the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, Swiss Small Arms Survey
Nevertheless, errors abide in available data
E.g., Swiss Small Arms Survey estimates combine civilian and criminal firearms

34. Conclusions and recommendations
Available data does not support link between civilian firearms ownership and murder or suicide rates
Available data does not support effectiveness of stringent firearms laws in reducing murder or suicide rates
Better estimates of civilian firearms ownership should be collected
It is imperative that policy makers be exposed to more accurate research on civilian firearms