1. Presidential Election
The “chief factors” influencing
how people vote in presidential elections
1. Party Orientation (Partisan Identification: Party ID)
Independent voters (non-partisans)
무당파층  목요일 수업 reading 읽어올것
2. Campaign Promises (선거공약)/ Policy Preferences
“Do Campaigns Matter?” Debate
What if not keeping up the campaign promises?

2. “Do Campaigns Matter? Maybe or Maybe Not” 투표 후보자 결정시기: 연령별

3. 연령군별 정책선호: 해석?

4. Presidential Election
The “chief factors” influencing
how people vote in presidential elections
3. Retrospective judgments on the performance of the incumbent or their political party (회고적 투표)
“Economic Voting” theory
4. The way people perceive the integrity, character, and judgment of the candidates
이념, 지역주의, 세대론 등 (독립적인 변수인가?)

5. Ideology and Election The role (function) of Ideology?
1. “Information shortcut”
You don’t have to check and analyze every issue
position by politicians or parties
Different ideologies mean different policies
Ideology as a “cost-saving” device
2. “Energizing & Mobilizing tool”
People need ideological motivation to make any
sacrifices
Ideology cements together movements, parties, and
even revolutionary groups

6. Theories of Voting I I. Sociological Approaches (the Columbia School)
Paul Lazarsfeld ( ), a sociologist at
Columbia University
People vote according to their membership of
social groups
class, religion, race, language, urban/rural, gender,
generation, occupation

7. Theories of Voting II
II. Psychological Approaches (the Michigan School)
Angus Campbell ( ) at the University of
Michigan
Psychological orientations and individual
characteristics of voters (esp. the role of party
identification)
“Joe is a liberal, because his mom is a liberal.”
What about us?
Yet, the strength of party ID is fading in many
western countries

8. Theories of Voting III III. Rational Choice Approaches
Anthony Downs (1957): An Economic Theory of Democracy
Citizens are rational and they vote on the basis of a
calculation of which party is most likely to satisfy their own
self-interested preferences
Parties are like business competing for customers in the
market place. They try to locate themselves and their
policies close to the median voter.
Median voter is in the middle of the distribution with equal
numbers of voters to the left and right and is therefore a
typical, middle-of-the voter.

9. Party Move and the Median Voter Theorem
Definition of the median voter theorem
= Political parties will pursue policies that appeal most to
the median voter.
= It explains why political parties often promote the similar
policies (예: 복지정책) to appeal to independent (moderate)
voters
One big condition relates to the ideological distribution of voters.
The theorem works if voters’ ideological distribution is a normal distribution (bell-shaped).
What happens if voters’ ideological distribution is bimodal?

10. Which Party System do you prefer?
Party Polarization (정당양극화)
No room for negotiation
Responsible Party System?
Ready to compromise
No difference between the parties
Third party or 안철수?

11. Polarization: Korea vs. US

12. 18대 대선: 세대별 투표참여율

13. 18대 대선: 세대별 결집도(투표율)

14. 세대별 인구구성의 변화: 한국

15. TOP 10 States with the Largest Latino Populations (Total # of Electoral College = 226) 7 out of 10 carried by Obama in 2012

16. Identity 선거 vs. Idea 선거? 서정건 교수 한국경제신문 칼럼