1. Process Outline and Schedule – page1
Timing
Activity Description
Oct. 2010
Planning directors meeting to kick-off TAZ Forecast
Nov Feb. 2011
Update the crosswalk table between local zoning districts and MetroScope zone class (incorporate local review)
Jan. – July 2011
Develop MetroScope Supply Modules (TAZ subcommittee)
(Capacity estimates for residential and employment)
June 2011
Release MetroScope Beta TAZ Forecast (agile version)
(limited release of interim forecast product for EMCP and SW Corridor projects)
July 2011
Planning directors meeting to begin review of Supply Modules
Aug. – Sep. 2011
Finalize MetroScope Supply Modules
(incorporates final recommendations of supply assumptions of Portland and suburban areas)
Oct. 2011
MetroScope Gamma TAZ Forecast starts now (tandem version)
(land-use and transportation modeling are fully engaged in TAZ forecast)
Nov. 2011
Limited Release of Gamma 1.0 TAZ Forecast (agile)
(interim forecast presented to Portland planning for comp plan review task)
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

2. Process Outline and Schedule – page2
Dec Mar. 2012
1st preview of MetroScope Gamma Forecast
(local governments can begin reviewing preliminary forecast data)
Apr. 2012
MetroScope Gamma TAZ Forecast restarts (tandem)
June-July 2012
Final Review of MetroScope Gamma Forecast
Aug 2012
Metro Council hearing and adoption of Official TAZ Forecast
Next Steps?
Mid-2012
Commit work program to research supply and demand unresolved supply and demand issues identified during this TAZ forecast
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

3. 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation
MetroScope – equilibrium supply and demand real estate forecast model
Integrated land use & transportation model to forecast TAZ-level employment and households.
Key forecast & policy assumptions:
Zoning data
Capacity (supply) information – residential and employment
Regional forecast data (demand)
Metroscope
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

4. MetroScope Model Schematic
Demand
Job Demand Forecast
Travel Times/Access
(Travel Demand Model)
MetroScope Residential Model
HIA Demand Forecast
Land Supply / Capacity Data
Vacant Land, Refill Supply, UR etc.
MetroScope Non-Residential Model
HIA location choices
Job location choices
HIA Location Choices
Job Location Choices
Output
MetroScope is an integrated land use and transportation model. Developed to allocate population, household and employment growth at the census tract level (ezones for employment). MetroScope interacts with a travel demand model and a regional economic/population model. MetroScope forecasts result in an equilibrium growth allocation which balances residential (or employment) capacity against regional population (or employment) growth trends.
Supply
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

5. Metroscope: DEMAND DATA
Job Demand Forecast
Travel Times/Access
(Travel Demand Model)
MetroScope Residential Model
HIA Demand Forecast
Land Supply / Capacity Data
MetroScope Non-Residential Model
HIA Location Choices
(MetroScope models the real estate demand factors)
Metroscope: DEMAND DATA
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

6. Demand Data: Population Forecast (PMSA)
Pt+1 = Pt + bt – dt + mt (population eq.)
Population growth projections are prepared upstream of MetroScope and serve as regional “control totals” for the land use allocation model. Utilizing a traditional cohort-component model as described generally by the population equation, regional population growth is projected as components of population by birth , death and finally migration.
(x-axis denominated in years)
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

7. Demand Data: Population Forecast
PMSA: Range Forecast Range ~ 2 std. dev Population: 2,226,009 (Census) 2035 Population: 3,210,000 (yellow line)
A forecast range (or probability cone) is generated to depict possible alternative growth paths from the base case (or medium growth scenario) if birth and/or mortality rates differ sharply from the base case assumptions or migration trends veer widely from expected trend projections.
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

8. Demand Data: Population Forecast
Metro Council opts in UGB decision:
Lower
middle-third forecast range point value is assumed for TAZ Forecast
(Gamma 2.0)
Lower
middle-third forecast range point value
The growth range was narrowed for the UGB decision. The reduction in range was based on the cumulative probability distribution calculated from the wider range forecast. Because we hypothesize that the error functions for the population factors are likely to be normally distributed, the probability density function of the forecast range is also normally distributed. A narrower range – assuming 1 standard deviation – from the expected base case forecast is clustered closer to the mean value than the tails of the distribution.
Standard Deviation
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

9. Demand Data: Population Forecast
Convert household count to HIA distributions
Iterative techniques use
2000 Census PUMS data to estimate households by :
Household size (7)
Income bracket (16)
Age of household head (7)
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

10. Demand Data: Employment Forecast
PMSA: Range Forecast Range ~ 2 std. dev Population: 2,226,009 (Census) 2035 Population: 3,210,000 (yellow line)
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

11. Demand Data: Employment Forecast
Industry Description
NAICS definitions
url:
MetroScope 15
Categories (SIC)
Travel Demand Variable
farm and forestry
11, 21 1
Afm
construction 23 2
Con
manufacturing
31, 32, 33
part of 3, 4, 5
Mfg
transport, warehousing, utilities
22, 48, 49
6, part of 7
Tpu
wholesale trade 42 8 Wt
retail trade
44, 45, 72 9
Ret
finance, insurance, real estate
52, 53, 55 10 Fi
consumer, health, business services
51, 54, 56, 61, 62, 71, 81
11, 12, 13, part of 3, part of 7
Ser
government, K-12 edu
Gov. ownership
14, 15
Gov
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12. Metroscope: supply data
Job Demand Forecast
Travel Times/Access
(Travel Demand Model)
MetroScope Residential Model
HIA Demand Forecast
Land Supply / Capacity Data
MetroScope Non-Residential Model
HIA Location Choices
(MetroScope models the real estate supply-side capacity components)
Metroscope: supply data
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

13. Supply Data: MetroScope Capacity Concepts
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

14. Supply Data: Metro UGB Residential
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

15. Supply Data: Metro UGB Non-Res.
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

16. Supply Data: Subsidized Redevelopment
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

17. Supply Data: Metro Urban Reserves
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

18. Supply Data: Ex-UGB Capacity
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

19. Supply Data: Clark County
Clark County Residential DU Capacity Estimates:
SF = 67,000
MF=45,700
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

20. Supply Data: Residential Capacity (PMSA)
Key point: MetroScope draws capacity information from a wider geography – not just concerned with the Metro UGB. We forecast the economic trade-offs of households making decisions to live inside or outside the Metro UGB as this interaction can greatly impact the parameters of the land use forecast by tenure, type, and location.
Concerns:
counting MF Redev, especially high-density redevelopment product (2/3)
too little SF capacity (already maxing out SF infill capacity using aggressive assumptions)
subsidized URA capacity is an educated assertion
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

21. Supply Data: Residential Capacity (UGB)
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

22. Supply Data: Capacity by Type (UGB)
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

23. Supply Data: Single Family Capacity (UGB)
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

24. Supply Data: Multi-family Capacity (UGB)
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25. Metroscope travel demand data
Job Demand Forecast
Travel Times/Access
(Travel Demand Model)
MetroScope Residential Model
HIA Demand Forecast
Land Supply / Capacity Data
MetroScope Non-Residential Model
HIA Location Choices
Travel time skims linked to residential zones are a factor in determining residential location choice
Metroscope travel demand data
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

26. Travel Demand Data: Travel Times
from Portland CBD
Modeled 2010
2-hour PM Peak
An example of typical travel time O-D pairings between downtown Portland and elsewhere in the region
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

27. Travel Demand Data: Travel Times
from Wilsonville
Modeled 2010
2-hour PM Peak
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

28. Travel Demand Data: Travel Networks
Networks in TAZ GAMMA Forecast
2010 existing
2017 network
2035 RTP Federal (Constrained)
2035 RTP State (Strategic)
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

29. METROSCOPE LAND USE TAZ ALLOCATION FORECAST
Job Demand Forecast
Travel Times/Access
(Travel Demand Model)
MetroScope Residential Model
HIA Demand Forecast
Land Supply / Capacity Data
MetroScope Non-Residential Model
HIA Location Choices
An equilibrium solution (balancing supply and demand for housing) is derived from the regulated buildable land inventory (BLI) and Metro “lower middle-third” regional population & employment forecast.
METROSCOPE LAND USE TAZ ALLOCATION FORECAST
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

30. 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation
Recap and Next Steps
Progress to date - accomplishments
Concerns (next slide)
Research agenda to address concerns
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

31. Gamma 1.0 TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Forecast
Key Concerns - Forecast Inputs and Assumptions:
Single family housing supply
Equity and price effects (economic dislocations)
Redevelopment (economic thresholds)
Redevelopment of relatively new development
Mixed use residential (horizontal districts)
Mixed use residential density assumptions (MUR 9-10)
Market differentiation by household type, tenure and location
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

32. 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation
Research Agenda
Proposed improvements to the forecast distribution process:*
Residential choice study enhanced with market segmentation
Redevelopment supply assumption refinement
Review actual development densities in high density multifamily and mixed use residential zone classes
*depending on funding availability
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

33. Examples illustrating key concerns – SINGLE FAMILY, FUTURE PRICING TRENDS AND EQUITY

34. Beta TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Household Forecast – SFR/MFR splits
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

35. 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation
Beta TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Household Forecast – SFR Price Projection
SF inventories are expected to dwindle faster than replenishment rates
Causing a surplus in SF residential demand
Resulting in further increases in SF home prices over the forecast
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

36. Beta TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Household Forecast (SF)
Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation