1. 2016 Water Quality Assessment Update (thru Sep. 2016)
Ed Sherwood
Tampa Bay Estuary Program
263 13th Ave. South
St. Petersburg, FL 33701

2. Annual NMC Compliance Assessment (2009 – Present)
Assess Chl-a annually over 5-yr RA period
Additional reporting triggered when Chl-a above thresholds for 2 straight years
Bay Segment / Entity TN Loads investigated
May require adjustment of Bay Segment TN TMDL and/or Entity-Specific Load Allocations

3. Chlorophyll-a: Historic Annual Means

4. Chlorophyll-a: 2016 Monthly Mean Comparisons

5. Bay Segments Meeting FDEP Threshold?
Year
OTB HB
MTB
LTB
1974 No
Yes
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016  
Bay Segment
Chlorophyll-a
(ug/L)
2016
Average
(as of Sep.)
(5th Year)
FDEP RA Thresholds
Old Tampa Bay
9.6
9.3
Hillsborough Bay
11.6
15.0
Middle Tampa Bay
5.3
8.5
Lower Tampa Bay
3.0
5.1
RA Compliance Assessment Period

6. DATA USED TO ASSESS ANNUAL REASONABLE ASSURANCE
Summary To Date
All bay segments, except Old Tampa Bay, on track to be below chlorophyll-a thresholds thru September
Final RA Assessment Year (Chl-a conditions in 2016) will determine if OTB TMDL / allocations will need further assessment.
Seagrass acreage in Tampa Bay continues to increase, even in OTB. Expecting 2016 seagrass coverage assessment by the end of year.
Bay Segment Reasonable Assurance Assessment Steps
DATA USED TO ASSESS ANNUAL REASONABLE ASSURANCE
Year 1 (2012)
Year 2 (2013)
Year 3 (2014)
Year 4 (2015)
Year 5 (2016)
NMC Action 1: Determine if observed chlorophyll-a exceeds FDEP threshold of 9.3 mg/L
7.8 mg/L (No)
8.7 mg/L (No)
7.9 mg/L (No)
10.7 mg/L (Yes)
9.6 mg/L (Yes)
NMC Action 2: Determine if any observed chlorophyll-a exceedences occurred for 2 consecutive years No
Yes
NMC Action 3: Determine if observed hydrologically- normalized total load exceeds federally-recognized TMDL of 486 tons/year
N/A
???
NMC Actions 4-5: Determine if any entity/source/facility specific exceedences of 5-yr average allocation occurred during implementation period

7. 2015 & 2016 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

8. Questions?