1. The crime drop in The Netherlands: What explanations can be given?
Presentation for the Safer Sweden Foundation, Amsterdam, 6 April 2016
Jaap de Waard, Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice
6 April 2016

2. What is this presentation about?
Personal introduction and backgound
The Netherlands in a nutshell
Has there been a drop in crime in The Netherlands and other industrialised countries?
A striking decline in the number of juvenile suspects
Why has the crime drop occured in The Netherlands and other industrialised countries? What explanations can be given?
The Security Hypothesis explained
Conclusions
Additional: Some good practices from The Netherlands

3. Personal introduction and background
Information analyst at the Research and Documentation Center, Dutch Ministry of Justice
Policy advisor at the Strategy Unit, Dutch Ministry of Justice
Head of the Secretariat of the European Crime Prevention Network (EUCPN), European Commission, Brussels
Senior policy advisor at the Unit for General Crime Policy, Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice
Research fellow at the International Victimology Institute (INTERVICT), Tilburg University, the Netherlands.
Personal ambition to stimulate the utilisation of evidence based scientific insights into the policy making process

4. The Netherlands in a nutshell
41,543 sq km
Coastline: 415 km
Population: 17,002,093
Capital: Amsterdam, million
Urban population: 83%
Independence: 23 January 1579
Legal system: based on civil law system incorporating French penal theory
GDP: € billion
GDP per capita: € 37,900
Unemployment rate: 6.5%
Internet users: million
Illicit drugs: major European producer of synthetic drugs, including ecstasy, and cannabis cultivator, important gateway for cocaine, heroin and hashish entering Europe.

5. Has there been a drop in crime in The Netherlands and other industrialised countries?
There has been a significant and prolonged ‘’crime drop’’ in The Netherlands and many other industrialised countries;
This crime drop has been observed in property crime (vehicle theft, domestic burglary, theft from cars, shoplifting, street robbery, and pickpocketing) and violent crime (assault, sexual assault, rape, homicide and manslaughter);
The extent and nature of the crime drop appear to be more similar between similar countries (for example The Netherlands and England and Wales);
The extent of the evidence is such that the similarities are unlikely to be the result of coincidence. Explanations must therefore be sought mainly in causes shared by all industrialised countries;
Striking is the strong decline in the number of juvenile suspects in The Netherlands and a number of other countries.

6. Some recent trends in crime in The Netherlands: I
Figure: registered crime and victimisation trends in The Netherlands,
Figure: development household burglary, street robbery and commercial robbery (index: 2005 = 100)

7. Some recent trends in crime in The Netherlands: II

8. Decrease in registered crime per 1,000 inhabitants in The Netherlands: 2005 - 2014

9. Trends in homicide in The Netherlands and at the international level

10. A striking decline in the number of juvenile suspects in The Netherlands, Canada and the United States of America

11. Why has the crime drop occured in The Netherlands and other industrialised countries? What explanations can be given?
Only recently evidence based (inter)national criminological research has come available to explain the crime drop;
There are many possible explanations available, from a strong economy, policing strategies, gun control laws, imprisonment to improved security;
There is no magic bullit explanation for the Dutch and international drop in crime;
Many explanations are country specific and do not apply to a number of other different countries;
For the Netherlands four major related explanations can be given: (1) improved security; (2) restoring the capacity and authority of the criminal law; (3) demography and a declining heroin market (4) a strong active and stimulating role from central gouvernment;
Since the crime drop has occured at different times in different countries in relation to different crime types we will look for explanations that we can apply in many countries.

12. The Security Hypothesis explained
On the basis of our current knowledge and evidence the security hypothesis is the most important and solid explanation for the drop in crime;
There is a general (international) increase in improvement of preventive behaviour, the quality of and financial investment in crime prevention by individuals, gouvernmental organisations, the business world and producers. The private security industry has been an outstanding growth market;
The security hypothesis especially applies when to explaining the drop in property crime (especially vehicle theft, shoplifting and domestic burglary). It is less clear how it applies to violent crime, such as certain types of (sexual) violence and assault.

13. In conclusion
There has been a significant and prolonged ‘’crime drop’’ in The Netherlands and many other advanced countries.
There seems to be a magnitude of theories and hypotheses that have been used to explain the drop in crime.
There has been significant progress in (international) crime drop research.
The so-called Security Hypothesis appears to be the most evidence-based and solid international explanation.
There are still many unanswered questions when we try to explain the drop in crime.

14. Proven effective in The Netherlands: Decline in the risk of household burglaries by taking simple crime prevention measures
Crime prevention measures can be relative simply and very effective
E.g. the combination of the following five preventive measures:
(1) leave a light on when going out
(2) fitted extra locks on doors and windows
(3) extra outside lighting
(4) dog
(5) burglar alarm
Effect: the risk of becoming a victim of a successful household burglary is decreased by factor 16

15. Proven effective in The Netherlands: Functional surveillance in housing complexes, public transport and public space
Main effect:
Significant decline of crime and disorder in public and semi-public space

16. Proven effective in The Netherlands: The Dutch ‘’Police Label Secure Housing’’
Objective is to reduce crime, mainly burglary, car-related crime, theft, vandalism, nuisance
This is accomplished through environmental design, architectural measures and target hardening
Risk of burglary dropped significantly: by almost 95% in new estates en 80% in existing environments

17. Proven effective in The Netherlands: Mandatory application of electronic engine immobilisers for all new cars
Since 1998 all new cars sold within the European Union have a mandatory built-in simple and low-cost anti-theft device
Main effect: in the Netherlands the security device reduced car theft by an estimated 40 percent
No significant proof of crime displacement
It is estimated that every € invested in prevention has a benefit of five €
Government regulation can make car owners better off by coordinating a private response to the risk of car theft

18. Proven effective in The Netherlands: Introduction of the so-called public transport card in the Dutch public transport system
Fare dodging in the Rotterdam public transport system is reduced from 10 percent to 1.5 percent  on a daily basis € additional income
Fare dodging in the Amsterdam metro system reduce from 13 percent to 2 percent after introduction of the public transport card

19. Special Features of the Dutch Approach to Crime Control and Crime Prevention
Strong collaboration between central government and the business world: Dutch National Platform of Crime Control;
Public and Private Partnerships to promote crime prevention, especially with the Private Security Industry
Preventing is more desirable then prosecuting
Using civil remedies and an administrative approach preventing criminal behavior (local organized crime)
Strong certification schemes for public safety aspects
Evidence based approach (evidence based crime policies versus policy based evidence)