1. Depletion, Scarcity & Resilient Supply Chains
René Kleijn
Raw Materials Conference, June 23rd 2017

2. Trends in the future demand for materials:
buildup BRICs will continue in the future while other emerging economies will follow
increasing complexity products
rapidly increasing demand for bulk- and special metals from the energy transition

3. Doubling of urban population & tripling GDP/cap
Chongqing: 6-7 million inhabitants (total urban area 29 million)

4. elements used in the production of computerchips 1980s: 12 of 92 elements
Data: National Research Council, 2007 / Intel

5. elements used in the production of computerchips 1990s: 16 of 92 elements
Data: National Research Council, 2007 / Intel

6. elements used in the production of computerchips 2000s: 61 of 92 elements
Data: National Research Council, 2007 / Intel

7. g metal/kWh electricity compared to current mix

8. Trends in future supply of materials :
globalisation is a one-off gain
no further decrease costs bulk-transport: limits to the scale- up of bulk carriers and increasing fuel costs
limits to the scale-up of mining projects, smaller deposits, deeper deposits, back to underground mines? high-tech ?
efficiency refining is closing on physical limitations

9. Cumulative Supply Curves
Source: Kushnir & Sanden 2012 based on Yaksic & Tilton, 2009

10. So are we running out of resources ?
Depletion vs Scarcity
Depletion: decrease of stocks
Scarcity: demand > supply (flow based, economics)
Are we depleting our resources ?
yes in terms of natural resources (ores)
no as long as we have them available in societal stocks (urban mining, circular economy)
yes if we have dissipative losses

11. So are we running out of resources ?
Are resources becoming more scarce ?
yes if demand grows rapidly supply cannot keep up (lead time)
no not in the long run because of ample geological stocks
yes because concentration of production and refining makes supply chains less resilient
yes prices will increase due to decreasing ore grades, increasing use of energy water and increasing impacts
Will we have enough metals and minerals for the energy transition ?
yes there are ample geological resources
no because we will not be able to make them available in the next 40 years,
unless we have stringent, clear, long term and global climate policies in place

12. So are we running out of resources ?
Will the Circular Economy save us from depletion ?
yes, the circular economy already helps a lot (Fe & Cu) and is a requirement for a sustainable resource use
no not if demand grows rapidly, secondary supply will be marginal compared to demand
only if the recycling is technically possible and economically viable

13. So what do we need for a smooth transition?
Climate policy
Circular economy
Sustainable Mining
Resilient supply chains