1. SA’s Demographic Dividend And Education Landscape Explored
Did we take hold of the opportunity?
Pali Lehohla
Statistics South Africa

2. 55 908 900 The South African population is estimated at up by 896 900
from 2015 estimates

3. The demographic dividend is the accelerated economic growth that may result from a decline in a country's mortality and fertility …..and the subsequent change in the age structure of the population.
decline

4. Investigating Fertility and Mortality

5. On average, a woman will give birth to
2,43
On average, a woman will give birth to
children in her lifetime
Fertility has declined from an average of 2,65 children per woman in 2002 to 2,43 children per woman in 2016
Provided that current fertility behavior prevails
Source Mid Year Estimates 2016

6. TFR Crude Birth Rate Peak in 2008 Fertility
Source Mid Year Estimates 2016

7. Mortality
Rate
Infant mortality has declined from 48,2 infant deaths per 1 000 live births in 2002 to 33,7 infant deaths per 1 000 live births in 2016
The crude death rate is down from 12,9 deaths per 1 000 people in 2002 to 9,7 deaths per 1 000 people in 2016
Source Mid Year Estimates 2016

8. What's happened to the population structure?

9. Age structure based on CS 2016
Source CS 2016

10. Source CS 2016

11. So we have a the main ingredients for a Demographic Dividend.

12. However changes in age structure alone cannot provide a demographic dividend

13. The Gears Of Demographic Dividend
Manage HIV/AIDS
and fertility
Provide skills, education
Maintain an environment characterised by sound governance principles in an effort to build a stronger economy
Create jobs

14. Focus on Education and The Economy

15. “The single most important investment
any country can make
is in its people.”
National Development Plan

16. Between 1996 and 2016 we have seen significant changes in the education landscape

17. Source CS 2016

18. However the challenges of unemployment, especially amongst the youth continue

20. Source CS 2016

21. Unemployment is also strongly linked with educational attainment

23. Source CS 2016

24. Graduate Unemployment falls rapidly after age 25
Graduate unemployment for selected age groups
Graduate Unemployment falls rapidly after age 25
Source Nesstar Data Retrieval: Quarterly Labour Force Survey (3rd Quarter 2016)

25. Tertiary education has remained elusive for the majority of the population

26. The enrolment vs participation
Debate

27. African White Headcount enrolments by race from 2009 to 2014 Coloured
Indian
African
White
Source: VitalStats Public Higher Education 2014 from Council for Higher Education

28. Participation rates by gender from 2009 to 2014
* This is total headcount enrolment over the national population of years old, calculated as a percentage.
Source: VitalStats Public Higher Education 2014 from Council for Higher Education

29. two sides of the same coin?
Viewed from the CS 2016 lens
two sides of the same coin?

32. 25%
Source CS 2016

33. Blockages within Tertiary Education

34. 30% graduated within regulation time for a 3 year degree
Of the 2008 cohort of first-time entering students (excluding UNISA)
30% graduated within regulation time for a 3 year degree
Source: VitalStats Public Higher Education 2014 from Council for Higher Education
Adapted from

35. Throughput comparison of 2007, 2008 and 2009 cohorts from regulation time up to n+3 years for 3-year degrees (excluding UNISA)
Source: VitalStats Public Higher Education 2014 from Council for Higher Education

36. Course success rates* by race from 2009 to 2014 by Pop Group
*The success rate refers to the total number of courses passed by students in a given academic year relative to course enrolments.
Source: VitalStats Public Higher Education 2014 from Council for Higher Education

37. How has the South African workforce shifted in terms of skill levels since 1994?

38. There were much weaker gains in the black African group for all ages
Percentage of workers in each age group who are skilled (managers, professionals, technicians)
1994
2014
The percentage of workers in skilled occupations increased in all age and all race groups, except for black Africans aged 25-34, which decreased
There were much weaker gains in the black African group for all ages

39. The challenges to achieving the demographic dividend are also seen in the drivers of poverty

40. CS 2016

41. Main contributors to poverty amongst Youth (15-24)
The major contributor to the poverty situation of the youth in South Africa is educational attainment.
Source CS 2016

42. Does the nation see education as a challenge?

44. for more information
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