1. Demographic Issues Affecting Seafood Processing in Atlantic Canada
Process Automation In Seafood Processing Workshop, Nov. 15, 2016
Jamie Ward, MSc
Alvin Simms, PhD
Dept. of Geography,
Harris Centre RANLab
St. John’s, NL
Canada

2. Outline Seafood Processing in context Nature of demographic challenge
Relative demographic condition vs. other industries
Spatial distribution of industry
Nature of demographic challenge
Components of demographic change
Causes of divergent rural/urban growth
Short term outlook
Data source: Statistics Canada

3. Occupations in Seafood Processing
Atlantic Canada older than country as a whole
Fish processing occupations generally older than provincial workforces
Lower wages
Source: 2011 NHS (Statistics Canada)

4. Sub-Provincial Geographies
Data availability a concern
Functional economic regions
Region class types
Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) vs. Non-CMA areas
St. John’s
Halifax
Saint John
Moncton

5. Functional Economic Regions
All Census Sub-Divisions grouped into functional economic regions (FERs) according to commuting flows
FERs then organized into 5 classes according to socio-economic characteristics, including:
Population
Industry Diversity
Proximity to Urban
Urban
Pop. > 40,000
City/Regional Towns
Pop. 8,000 – 40,000
First Order Rural
Pop. 2,000 – 8,000
Second Order Rural
Pop. 600 – 2,000
Third Order Rural
Pop. <= 600 people
Generally remote
Freshwater, D., Simms, A. and J. Ward (2014) Local Labour Markets as a New Way of Organizing Policies for Stronger Regional Economic Development in Atlantic Canada, Leslie Harris Centre, Memorial University, St. John’s, NL

6. Functional Economic Regions

7. Geographic Distribution of Seafood Processing
Primarily concentrated in intermediate-sized areas
Demographic assessment should distinguish from large urban areas
Source: Business Register (Dec. 2015)

8. Seafood Processing in Local Economies
Seafood Processing is a large component of many rural economies
Scale of replacement a concern

9. Local Demographic Differences
Rural areas older than urban areas and provinces overall
How did this happen?
How likely will it reverse soon?

10. Population Trends, by Region Class
Large shifts in younger cohorts over the past decade
Older cohorts increasing

11. Components of Demographic Change
Population Change =
Births (+)
In-migrants (+)
Deaths (-)
Out-migrants(-)
Crude death rates have risen as population has aged, but unlikely to affect short term labour market situation
Focus on birth rates and population retention

12. Births
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = Average # of babies born per woman, over her lifetime
TFR is well below replacement (2.1)

13. Births
Crude birth rates lower (and declining) outside of large urban areas
Reliance upon in-migration for labour market stability and growth

14. Population Retention
Loss of younger workforce acute problem for rural areas
Particularly to within- province urban areas

15. Overview Industry is critical component of rural economies
Workforce demand challenges
Older workers than average = Urgency
Large size of industry = Many people required
Somewhat lower attractiveness (wages/seasonality/conditions)
Workforce supply challenges
Poor retention of young people
Insufficient in-migration
Long term below replacement birth rates
Challenges magnified by issues endemic to rural locations
Attracting foreign workers
Youth retention