1. PSC Climate & Extreme Events: Shared Lessons – Day 1
March 19, 2003
20th Pacific Science Congress
Bangkok, Thailand

2. Shared Lessons—Day 1
Recent experience confirm regional exposure & sensitivity to climate-related events and various pilot projects highlight opportunities for forecast applications (agriculture, food security, drought, flood & fire management, disaster management, tourism, health (?), water and natural resource management, tourism, energy)
Significant costs of extreme events; direct losses, recovery costs and lost income
Central importance of water
Lots of variability
Significant role of tropical cyclones in some places

3. Shared Lessons—Day 1
Significant improvements in forecasting capabilities but still limitations/constraints on applications in specific places/sectors
Importance of understanding existing decision-making framework as a starting point:
Traditional sources of information and practices
Appropriate timing (critical periods)
Specific decision points & information needs for product design
Success comes with shared exploration of forecasting tools and potential applications—process, process, process

4. Shared Lessons—Day 1
Building trust and credibility – “eyeball-to-eyeball” contact sustained over time
Continuous interaction, dialogue, shared learning & shared responsibilities:
Among partners in climate information system
Local, national, regional, international partners
Providers and users
Among user communities
Dynamic nature of climate and management
Continuous evaluation and revision--FEEDBACK
Public education campaign essential
Special role of National Meteorological (& Hydrological) Services

5. Shared Lessons—Day 1
Most affected communities/sectors interested in continuum of timescales (short-term events, medium-range (seasonal/interannual) and long-range climate variability and change)
Multiple hazard context; “comprehensive risk management” where climate is one (albeit important) factor in a multiple-stress context
Science in support of sustainable development
Potential value of models and information technology (communication, product development, analysis, “discussion support” and decision support tools)
Successful engagement of private sector not yet fully realized

6. Shared Lessons—Day 1
Need for/benefit of new communications networks and partnerships
Forecasters, research institutions, governments (various levels), information brokers (e.g., extension workers), affected communities/sectors, end users, private sector, funding agencies
Getting to local level a particular challenge but essential
Need for feedback FROM all levels
Engagement of media
Translation/interpretation challenges; need for a shared and consistent vocabulary and production of understandable and usable information
Consistent messages critical; requires collaboration/communication among providers

7. Shared Lessons—Day 1
Still some significant limitations in data and scientific understanding, e.g.:
Regional/local details on climate processes, impacts, response options
Spatial resolution
Baseline data, continued observations
Forecast resolution (downscaling)
Different “flavors” of ENSO
Meaning of “normal” (non-event) years
ENSO-monsoon interactions
Consequences of climate change
Future socio-economic changes
Multi-disciplinary insights and integrated perspectives
Value of climate and hazard “early warning, monitoring & assessment systems”—lessons from health

8. Shared Lessons—Day 1
Changing roles of government, private sector, academia, research institutions
Importance of Government leadership and collaboration among ministries and across levels (national to local)
Forecasting
Response/action
Integration of climate in sustainable development planning
Mid-level officials a particular opportunity/challenge

9. Shared Lessons—Day 1
System analysis an important tool/approach – holistic perspective on the integrated human-climate-environment system
Complex interactions between environment and behavior – both impacts and responses
Growing awareness and attention within governments and within international community
Responding to today’s variability
Adaptation to long-term change
Links to sustainable development & Millenium goals