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Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda, Dennis Lettenmaier

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Presentation on theme: "Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda, Dennis Lettenmaier"— Presentation transcript:

1 Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda, Dennis Lettenmaier
Experimental Real-Time Hydrologic Nowcasting and Streamflow Forecasting for the Western US Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda, Dennis Lettenmaier Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering AWRA – 2005 Annual Conference, Seattle, WA, USA

2 Outline Background UW Westwide Seasonal Forecasting
Surface Water Monitor / Nowcasting

3 Importance of Seasonal Forecasting
water management hydropower irrigation flood control water supply fisheries recreation navigation water quality Aug Dec Apr Reservoir Storage

4 Significance for Pacific Northwest
Out here a lot of uses depend on how we manage water throughout the lean season (summer), and forecasting how wet or dry the season would be.

5 Outline Background UW Westwide Seasonal Forecasting
Surface Water Monitor / Nowcasting

6 Experimental Western US Hydrologic Forecast System

7 Experimental Western US Hydrologic Forecast System

8 Overview of the Hydrologic Forecast System
Test physical hydrological models Validation of historical streamflows Test different climate forecast products Test SNOTEL assimilation

9 Overview of the Hydrologic Forecast System
NCDC met. station obs. up to 2-4 months from current local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs soil moisture snowpack Hydrologic model spin up SNOTEL Update streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff 25th Day, Month 0 1-2 years back LDAS/other real-time met. forcings for spin-up gap Hydrologic forecast simulation Month INITIAL STATE SNOTEL Update ensemble forecasts ESP traces (40) CPC-based outlook (13) NCEP GSM ensemble (20) NSIPP-1 ensemble (9)

10 Overview of the Hydrologic Forecast System
(NWS) ESP ENSO/PDO ENSO CPC Official Outlooks Coupled Forecast System CAS OCN SMLR CCA CA NSIPP-1 dynamical model VIC Hydrology Model NOAA NASA UW Seasonal Climate Forecast Data Sources

11 Seasonal volume forecasts

12 Sample results: Soil Moisture / Snow conditions

13 Streamflow prediction results as of March 25, 2004 for Columbia at The Dalles, OR

14 Streamflow prediction results as of April 1 2005 for Green River, UT

15 Winter 2004-05: seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow
ESP median, 10th & 90th %-iles ESP-ENSO (warm) median OBS Forecasts made on 1st of Month

16 Outline Background UW Westwide Seasonal Forecasting
Surface Water Monitor / Nowcasting

17 Surface Water Monitor for Continental US
Current Plots Change Plots Archived Plots

18 VIC Retrospective Simulation
Real-time Nowcasting Information Flow Index Station Method Gridded Forcing Creation NOAA ACIS Prcp Tmax Tmin Coop Stations NOAA ACIS Prcp Tmax Tmin Coop Stations Nowcast produced with 1-2 day lag from current Index Method VIC Retrospective Simulation Daily, 1915 to Near Current Hydrologic State VIC Real-time Simulation (~1 month long) Hydrologic State (-1 Day) Hydrologic values, anomalies, percentiles w.r.t. retrospective PDF climatology (PDF) of hydrologic values w.r.t. defined period vals, anoms percentiles w.r.t. PDF

19 Near real-time Soil Moisture conditions

20 Snow conditions Change plots
Effect of Katrina August 2005 Yes, it is snowing in the cascades!!!

21 Archive of historical SM – SWE conditions

22 Ongoing Work / Future Directions
Westwide Seasonal Hydrologic System Inclusion of other basins and data points Assimilation of MODIS data sources Real-time Surface Water Monitor Increase spatial resolution to 1/8 degree Runoff maps, cumulative departures Thank you!

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