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Global Economy Booming
Looks everything positive? 22 September 2017
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Macro Outlook
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Dow Jones Index at record high
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
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World Trade continues to grow
Index: 1998=100 2017H1: +3.8% YoY Source: CPB
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OECD Leading Indicator indicates positive GDP growth in OECD
OECD Leading Indicator versus OECD GDP ( ) OECD Leading Indicator versus OECD GDP ( ) OECD Leading Indicator versus OECD GDP ( ) OECD Leading Indicator versus OECD GDP ( ) Source: OECD
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World GDP growth improves in 2017-2020 compared to 2016
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2017, July 2017
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Seaborne Trade
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Seaborne traded dominated by iron ore, coal, containers, crude oil
Global fleet divided by type of vessel (start of 2017) Seaborne trade in 2016 divided by product group Source: Clarkson Research
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Seaborne trade growth rate has decelerated
Source: IMF, Clarkson Research, Rabobank
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Energy Transition
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Offshore Wind has strong tail wind
EUR/MWh 2017H1: +3.8% YoY Source: Van Oord, Dong Energy, Dutch government
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EU’s gasoline & diesel demand peaked in 2006
M toe Source: BP Statistical Review 2017
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Conclusions
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Structural changes happening
Period Period E Global population growth Population growth slowing down Number of consumers rising Ageing consumers and behaviour Globalisation of production Reshoring production Lengthening supply chains Shortening supply chains Fossil fuel growth Growth renewable energy Source: Danish Ship Finance
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Seaborne trade growth rate low: Steel industry; Energy transition
CAGR (%) E E E Population 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 World GDP 3.4 2.7 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.8 World trade 5.6 6.4 6.9 3.8 n/a Seaborne trade 3.7 4.3 3.1 0.8 Air Cargo 5.2 7.9 5.5 2.3 3.0 4.2 GDP/Population 2.4x 1.7x 3.2x 3.0x 3.3x 3.6x 4.0x Seaborne/GDP 1.1x 1.4x 0.9x 0.8x 0.4x 0.3x Seaborne/Population 2.6x 2.3x 2.5x 1.2x Source: IMF, Clarkson Research, Boeing, UN, Rabobank
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Growth Dutch road haulage & inland shipping below GDP
Index
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Growth EU road haulage below GDP
Index Hardly any data on Rail available
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