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2015 Ratings Review Presentation
6/6/2018 3:20 AM CS 2015 Ratings Review Presentation October 2015
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Industry and Regulatory Environment KOSEP’s Recent Developments
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Table of Contents Company Overview Industry and Regulatory Environment KOSEP’s Recent Developments Business & Operations Financial Overview Financial Forecast
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6/6/2018 3:20 AM 1. Company Overview
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Transmission & Distribution
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Company Snapshot KOSEP, a core subsidiary of KEPCO, specializes in thermal power generation. As one of the key suppliers of the nation’s electricity, it owns 5 power plants with current total capacity of 9,979MW Major Business Area Transmission & Distribution Generation KOSEP Introduction Key Stats Company Name Korea South East Power Co. Business Type Power generation and etc. Main Production Items Electric power, heat Establishment Date April 2, 2001 Number of Employees 2,146 Assets W8,854 billion Liabilities W4,751 billion Sales W2,407 billion (1H 2015) W4,481 billion (FY2014) Installed Capacity 9,979MW (1H 2015) 9,979MW (FY2014) Power Generation Quantity 36,462GWh (1H 2015) 67,577GWh (FY2014) Credit Rating Aa3 (Moody’s) / A+ (S&P) / AA- (Fitch) Thermal (100%) KOSEP Republic of Korea (Aa3/AA-/AA-) (51%) (Aa3/A+/AA-) KOMIPO (100%) (100%) WP Market Share (1) (100%) EWP (100%) KOSPO Hydro & Nuclear (100%) KHNP Note: As of June 30, 2015 (1) Figures based on sales of electricity
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A Proven Leader of Korean GENCOs
6/6/2018 3:20 AM A Proven Leader of Korean GENCOs KOSEP has competitive advantages compared to other thermal GENCOs in multiple aspects including sales and production capability Net Income(1) Operating Margin(1) Electricity Purchase Cost(2) (KRWbn) (Unit: %) (Unit: KRW/kWh) #1 #1 #1 Capacity Factor(2) Generation Capacity(1) Power Sales Volume(1) (Unit: %) (Unit: MW) (Unit: GWh) #1 #1 #1 Note: (1) Figures based on a period from Jan 1, 2015 to June 30, 2015 (2) Figures as of Dec 31, 2014
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Historical Milestones
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Historical Milestones KOSEP was spun off from KEPCO as a part of the government’s reorganization plan. KOSEP was spun off from KEPCO as a part of the government’s reorganization plan. 2001 Established in April Declared corporate vision and ethical guidelines 2003 Stopped the attempt to sell its controlling stake, and instead made a decision to pursue an initial public offering Received A3 from Moody’s Issued $150 million Euro bond 2007 Completed 250kW Bundang Hydrogen-fuel cell power generation system First ignition of Yonghung Thermal Power Plant #3 2010 The government declared a new plan to restructure the electricity industry Moody’s upgraded its rating to A1 2013 Issued $300 million Kangaroo bond Fitch upgraded its rating to AA- Heo Yup appointed as President 2015 Moody’s upgraded its ratings outlook to positive S&P upgraded Korea sovereign rating to AA- 2001 2002 2003 2004~2005 2006 2007 2008~2009 2010 2011~2012 2013 2014~2015 2002 Selected as the first GENCO to be privatized Obtained the highest domestic credit ratings of AAA 2004 Postponed IPO Completed Yonghung Plant #1, 2 2005 Moody’s upgraded its ratings to A2 2006 Moody’s upgraded its ratings to A1 Issued $300 million Global bond 2008 Completed Yonghung Plant #3, 4 Officially ceased the IPO plan S&P upgraded its rating to A 2009 Moody’s downgraded its rating to A2 Acquired 0.3% of PT Adaro Indonesia 2011 Issued $300 million Euro bond 2012 Issued $300 million Syndicated Loan Officially gained Fitch’s rating 2014 Moody’s upgraded its rating to Aa3 Completed Yonghung Plant #5,6 Source: Company data.
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2. Industry and Regulatory Environment
6/6/2018 3:20 AM 2. Industry and Regulatory Environment
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Committed and Continued Government Support
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Committed and Continued Government Support KOSEP plays a key role in national electricity supply as one of the key power generators in Korea Strong Government Support Public Corporation Act Electricity Business Law Legal Framework for KOSEP Basic Plan for Energy Development Environmental Policy Law Public corporation governed by the Public Corporation Act Continued government support pursuant to legal framework Oversight of the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy Solid Credit Profile International Credit Rating Local Credit Rating Aa3 Aa3 AA- A+ AA- AA- AAA AAA AAA Stable Stable Stable ROK KOSEP
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The 7th Basic Energy Plan for Long Term Power Supply
6/6/2018 3:20 AM The 7th Basic Energy Plan for Long Term Power Supply In July 2015, the government newly published the 7th Basic Plan for Long Term Power Supply, which covers the period between 2015 and 2029 Basic Direction of the Plan Secure stable supply of electricity Reassess the validity of electricity demand projections Utilize new energy business to control and manage electricity demand Promote low carbon energy mix to reduce greenhouse gas emission Diversify energy source, including renewable energy Target Projections 2015 2029 Electricity Demand 489,595 GWh 656,883 GWh Maximum Electricity Supply 82,478 MW 111,929 MW Generation Capacity 92,438 MW 136,097 MW Proportion of New Renewable Energy Business 4.5% 11.7% Key Changes from the 6th Basic Plan Supply-side Outlook: During the 6th Basic Plan, the projected growth rates of electricity consumption in ’13 and ’14 were 2.9% and 3.4%, respectively. However, due to increase in electricity cost, changes in weather conditions and slowdown in overall economy, the actual rates were 1.8% and 0.6% Capacity Installation Plans: The expansion plans to increase installed capacity discussed during the 6th Basic Plan were postponed due to environmental regulation and absence of power cables – YongHung #7,8 and Dongbu Hasla #1,2 Carbon Emission Issue: Capacity installation plans were mainly LNG and coal-focused constructions that have shorter construction period but also negative effects in reducing carbon emissions; To meet the ‘Post-2020 Goal’ of reducing amount of greenhouse gases, the focus should be on low- carbon growth Source: The Seventh Basic Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply and Demand, July 2015 by Ministry of Trade, Industry, Energy
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Korea Electricity Market Trends
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Korea Electricity Market Trends Although electricity demand growth has slowed down since 2011, strong efforts have been continued to be made in overseeing demand control and pricing optimization Electricity Consumption & GDP Growth(1) Key Trends Total domestic utility capacity recorded 93,216MW in 2014, 8.3% (7,133MW) increase compared to 2013 figure Domestic total power generation quantity recorded 517,771GWh, 0.5% (2,562GWh) increase compared to 2013 figure Electricity demand recorded y-o-y growth rate of 1.7% in according to Korea Electric Power Corporation December recorded the highest amount of average bidding quantity of ~75MkW while April recorded the lowest, with quantity of ~60MkW, mainly dependent on temperature change Electricity Market Projections(2) (Unit: Thousand MW) 2.1% annual growth in electricity demand from 2015 to 2029 2.2% annual growth in maximum supply from 2015 to 2029 (Unit: Thousand GWh) Source: (1) KEPCO (2) The Seventh Basic Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply and Demand, July 2015 by Ministry of Trade, Industry, Energy
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Overview of Electricity Pricing Mechanism
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Overview of Electricity Pricing Mechanism Introduction of “The Adjusted Coefficient of SMP” motivates GENCOs to construct base load power plants and led to fair competition among GENCOs. New pricing system has helped KOSEP, with the highest base load proportion, to be more profitable and competitive. Regulatory Change in Electricity Pricing Mechanism (May 2008 ~ Present) Regulated Market Price (RMP) System New Power Pool Market System Existing regulated market prices acted effectively as price caps on coal-fueled and nuclear power sold to KEPCO, deteriorating the profitability of the GENCOs that primarily rely on coal sources for electricity generation Through the new power pool market system, KOSEP can pass through its fuel cost through the energy price Concept of Electricity Pricing Mechanism Price of Electricity Energy Payment (Variable Cost) Capacity Payment (Fixed Cost) Price of Electricity that GENCOs sell to KEPCO Provide adaptable price caps under the concepts of a “System Marginal Price (SMP)” and an “adjusted coefficient” of the SMP To compensate for the costs of constructing power generation facilities and to provide incentives for new construction Price Type Price Remarks Energy Payment (EP) Base Load Fuel Cost + [Max {(SMP-Fuel Cost), 0} x The Adjusted Coefficient] The Adjusted Coefficient (July ~ ) Nuclear: (←0.4377) Coal: (← ) Anthracite: (← ) Others/General: (← )_(Jan.2015~) Non Base Load Capacity Payment (CP) KRW 7.46/kWh KRW 7.46/kWh as a base price, CP is differentiated by regions, by seasons and by hours
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Overview of Vesting Contract (“VC”)
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Overview of Vesting Contract (“VC”) Overview Market Impact (KRW/kWh) Financial Markets Strike Price Market Price (SMP) Current Market Market after VC A Spot Market Spot Market Signing VC B B (Hours) Genco 1 Genco 2 Genco 3 Genco 1 KEPCO KEPCO Case A: GENCOs pays difference (A) to distribution companies Case B: Distribution companies pay difference (B) to GENCOs Market Price Market Price Market Price Market Price KPX Genco 2 KPX Concept A contractual obligation between GENCOs and distribution companies to produce a specified quantity of electricity at a specified price per government’s regulation Risk Hedging Contract Buy Electricity Sell Electricity Genco 3 Buy Electricity Sell Electricity Purpose To hedge financial risk amongst parties and stabilize electricity supply through stabilizing SMP as part of the advancement process in the electricity market Adjusted Market Price Differences between market price and strike price Pricing Mechanism 1 2 3 Strike Price Strike Volume Fuel Cost Adjusted Actual Amount 1 Strike Price 2 Fuel Cost Investments + Maintenance Cost + Corporate tax Fuel cost calculation options: Application of average cost of power suppliers; or Application of foreign index; or Application of current methodology
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3. KOSEP’s Recent Developments
6/6/2018 3:20 AM 3. KOSEP’s Recent Developments
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Notable Achievements & Successes
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Notable Achievements & Successes During 2014, KOSEP recorded net income at its historical highs while also achieving low L/E ratio through a proactive liabilities reduction efforts Highest Net Income Since Establishment Intensive Efforts to Reduce Liabilities Net Income Performance Liabilities to Equity Ratio Performance (Unit: KRWbn) (Unit: %) Target for 2014: 129%(1) Target for 2014: KRW300bn(1) Contributing Factors Breakdown of Liability Reduction Efforts in 2014 Yonghung #5, #6 units in Yonghung completed earlier than expected Days saved by early completion: 20 days (#5) / 57 days (#6) Increase in capacity: +1,740 MW vs. 2013 Increase in generation amount: +236 GWh vs. 2013 Increase in power sales: +4,300 GWh vs. 2013 Resulting increase in operating income: + KRW 155bn vs. 2013 Lower fuel cost due to decrease in commodity prices contributed to net income as well (KRWbn) Planned FY2014 Actual FY2014 Achievement (%) Portfolio Adjustment 315.6 392.5 124% Asset Monetization 70.8 100% Cost Reduction 46.9 82.0 175% Expand Income 9.1 9.7 107% Total Debt Reduction 442.4 555.0 125% Source: (1) Target figures under financial management plan
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KOSEP’s Updated Financial Management Strategy
6/6/2018 3:20 AM KOSEP’s Updated Financial Management Strategy KOSEP lowered the target liabilities-to-equity ratio to 107% by 2019 through portfolio adjustment, asset divestment, and management optimization efforts Key Target Leverage Ratios FY2015 FY2019 (%) (x) Forecast Liability-to- Equity Ratio 120% 107% Interest Coverage Ratio 5.4x 4.4x Maintaining a 5-year average of 3% in reducing the amount of liabilities Liability Level 2015 – 2019 Capital Raising / Cost Saving Plan Plan Total Amount by 2019 Key Highlights Portfolio Adjustment KRW 1,171bn Cost savings in construction business (KRW 369bn) Adjustment and prioritization of existing projects (KRW 15bn) Withdrawal/downsizing from new domestic and overseas projects (KRW 787bn) 1 Asset Divestment KRW 118bn Asset monetization through stake sale of assets Divestment of various assets 2 Management Optimization KRW 220bn Cost savings: operates under reduced budget, exceeding government guidance Business expansion: finds and secures new business in niche market 3 Total: KRW 1,509bn
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6/6/2018 3:20 AM 3. Business & Operations
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Power Generation Portfolio
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Power Generation Portfolio KOSEP has the largest base load capacity and competitive site locations near high-electricity-consuming areas among the thermal GENCOs Location of Power Plants Generation Portfolio as of 2015 “Operation Units” “Fuel Type” Capacity (MW) Samchonpo 6 (#1~6) Bituminous 3,240 Yonghung 5,080 Bundang 10 (#1~2) LNG 922 Yeosu 1 (#2) 329 Yongdong 2 (#1~2) Anthracite 325 Renewables 83 Subtotal 25 9,979 (in construction) 350 Total 26 10,329 BUNDANG YONGDONG YONGHUNG Power Generation by Plant in 1H 2015 SAMCHONPO (In GWh) YEOSU Metropolitan Area Major Industrial/Chemical Complex Source: Company Data, Company filings
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Renewable and New Business
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Renewable and New Business Renewable Energy Business Required Renewable Supply % under Renewable Portfolio Standard Current Operations and Future Plans Capacity (MW) KOSEP SPC Total In commercial operations 83.30 7.97 91.27 In construction 3.00 96.00 99.00 In development 10.00 223.59 233.59 96.3 327.56 423.86 Goal: Changing 14.9% of total amount of electric power to New & Renewable energy until 2024 Breakdown of Plants in commercial operations Type Photo Voltaic Small Hydro Fuel Cell Wind Capacity 12.7MW 18.6MW 6.0MW 46.0MW New Business Domestic Overseas Type Projects Capacity Period Steam Sales Hyundai Energy 48.4MW ’13.01~ Combined Cycle Power S-Power (Ansan) 834.3MW ’14.12~ Coal Power Gosung Green Power 2,080MW ‘21.04~ Gangneng Eco Power ’20.06~ Lightweight Aggregate Sales Yonghung 200,000m/yr ’13.9~ Type Projects Capacity Period Coal Development Moolraben (Australia) 0.625 mn tons/yr ’08.02~ Adaro (Indonesia) 3 mn tons/yr ’09.07~ Power Generation Photo Voltaic (Bulgaria) - ASM 20.14MW ’11.12~ Photo Voltaic (Bulgaria) - RES 21.48MW ’12.03~ Novus Wind (U.S) - #1 80MW ’12.09~ Novus Wind (U.S) - #2 40MW ’12.12~ Domestic: YonghungESS (’15) / ShinhanBigeum Wind (’15) Domestic: GS PyeongTaek Complex (‘17~) Overseas: Nepal Hydro (’~19) / Pakistan Hydro (’~19) Future Plans 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Note: As of June 2015
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Operations Highlights
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Operations Highlights Our efforts to effectively utilize the company’s resources along with ongoing stability of the electricity market in Korea provide a competitive advantage to KOSEP Generation Capacity Power Generation Power Sales (In MW) (In GWh) (In GWh) Generation Capacity as % of Market(1) Power Generation as % of Market(1) Sales Amount as % of Market(1) (In %) Source: Company data. Note: (1) Data as of June 30, 2015
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Operational Efficiency
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Operational Efficiency KOSEP has been recognized for its exceptional operational efficiency among GENCOs especially through steady improvement in capacity factor and unplanned outage rate Efficient Operations Capacity Factor Capacity factor has been very stable due to KOSEP’s efforts to procure fuel at the lowest price and operate its facilities more efficiently, and KOSEP has maintained its top rank among GENCOs for 6 consecutive years Unplanned outage rate has also decreased for 6 consecutive years More and larger capacity facilities with less operating manpower makes KOSEP one of the highest productive companies (Unit: %) Unplanned Outage Rate Productivity (Revenue per Head) (Unit: %) (Unit: Million Won/person) Note: Company data. Note: Company data.
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Efficient Cost Management Fuel Purchasing Cost Trend by Product
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Cost Efficiency Constant efforts to maintain low fuel cost has helped KOSEP to achieve low production cost and higher margins at the same time Efficient Cost Management Fuel Cost Composition KOSEP has extensive and deep knowledge in procuring fuels Fuel cost has remained the lowest among thermal GENCOs KOSEP has performed significant roles in integrated coal purchasing among Korean GENCOs. Production cost has also reached its lowest, and has kept its #1 position among thermal GENCOs for the last 14 years Note: For the year ended Jun. 30, 2015 Fuel Purchasing Cost Trend by Product Production Cost (Unit: KRW/kWh) Fuel Type 1H2015 1H2014 Change Bituminous Coal (KRW/ton) 87,985 84,346 4.3%↑ Anthracite (KRW/ton) 117,933 103,866 13.5%↑ Oil (KRW/liter) 671 931 28.0% LNG (KRW/ton) 890,081 1,095,880 18.8% Note: Company data. Note: Company data.
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6/6/2018 3:20 AM 4. Financial Overview
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Financial Profitability
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Financial Profitability Revenue Operating Profit (Unit: KRW in billions) (Unit: KRW in billions) Operating Profit Margin Net Profit Margin (Unit: %) (Unit: %) Note: (1) 2010~2013 data are based on K-IFRS accounting standard (consolidated basis).
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EBIDTA / Interest Expense Net Debt / Capitalization
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Financial Stability EBIDTA / Interest Expense Net Debt / EBITDA (Unit: multiple) (Unit: multiple) Note: EBITDA = Operating Income + Depreciation + Amortization Note: Net Debt = Short-term financial Debt + Long-term financial Debt – Cash & Cash Eqv. EBITDA = Annualized EBITDA for 1H2014, 1H2015 Net Debt / Capitalization CFO / Total Debt (Unit: %) (Unit: %) Note: Capitalization = Net Debt + Total Shareholder’s Equity. Note: (1) 2010~2012 data are based on K-IFRS accounting standard (consolidated basis) while 2009 data is based on K-GAAP accounting standard (unconsolidated basis). Note: CFO =Cash flow from operating activities; Annualized CFO for 1H2014,1H2015
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Short-term vs. Long-term Local vs. Foreign Currency
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Debt Profile KOSEP continues to maintain a balanced debt profile Debt Maturity Profile Short-term vs. Long-term Local vs. Foreign Currency (KRW in Billions) Type of Borrowing Type of Interest Note: (1) As of Jun 30, 2015 (2) Total financial debt as of Jun 30, 2015, is KRW 3,720 billion
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Back-up Liquidity Bank Overdraft Facilities (in Millions)
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Back-up Liquidity Bank Overdraft Facilities (in Millions) Bank Committed Amount Yield NongHyup Bank KRW 100,000 3M CD + Spread Trade Financing Facilities (in Millions) Type Bank Committed Amount Yield Letter of Credit Citi Bank USD 150 3M Libor + Spread Woori Bank 20 NongHyup Bank Kookmin Bank 60 Credit Line Limit Korea Exchange Bank KRW 88,500 ANZ 200 Loan Commitment Limit 14,697 - RBS 100 DBS KORES 5,585 SMBC 50 Mizuho Bank Other Credit Guarantee HSBC 40 Total Short-term Borrowings (CP) Facilities (in Millions) Bank Committed Amount Yield Shinhan Bank KRW 100,000 3M CD + Spread Note: All data was made as of Jun 30, 2015
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6/6/2018 3:20 AM 5. Financial Forecasts
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FY2015 – FY2019 Financial Forecasts
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Financial Forecasts FY2015 – FY2019 Financial Forecasts 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Assets (KRW billions) 94,946 96,632 97,871 100,740 104,668 Liabilities (KRW billions) 51,719 51,977 50,753 53,668 54,090 Financial Liabilities / Borrowings 40,138 39,192 37,714 37,340 37,122 - Borrowings (Bonds) (1) 39,531 33,823 32,547 32,224 32,036 Non-financial Liabilities 11,581 12,785 13,039 16,328 16,968 Liability-to-Equity Ratio (%) 120 116 108 114 107 Operating Income (KRW billions) 6,713 4,292 5,250 3,746 5,816 Interest Expense (KRW billions) 1,254 1,174 1,265 1,352 1,308 Net Income (KRW billions) 4,258 2,310 2,991 665 3,779 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 5.4 3.7 4.1 2.8 4.4 Source: KOSEP’s Financial Management Plan (1) Borrowings include Commercial Papers and Asset Backed Short-term Bond
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Assumption for Forecasts
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Assumption for Forecasts Macroeconomic Assumptions for FY2015 – FY2019 Financial Forecast Macro Factors 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Inflation (%) 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.2 Oil Price ($/Barrel) 60 63 71 74 Currency (Won/$) 1,100 1,140 New Loan Borrowing Rate (%) 3.0 Interest Rate Change (%) Dividend Pay-out Ratio (%) 20 Expected Sales Amount (Gwh) 70,258 69,580 69,748 68,173 68,130 Source: KOSEP’s Financial Management Plan
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Changes from Previous Financial Management Strategy
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Changes from Previous Financial Management Strategy Key Differences 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Debt Ratio (%) Plan (A) 129 (Estimate) 133 132 130 Plan (B) 128 (Actual) 120 116 108 114 107 Disparity (B-A) +1 +13 +16 +22 Net Income (KRW bn) 298.4 (Estimate) 301.5 322.1 362.6 440.8 418.1 (Actual) 425.8 231.0 299.1 66.5 377.9 +119.7 +124.3 -91.1 -63.5 -374.3 Major Considerations for Change Recent announcement in 7th Electrical Power Supply And Demand Basic Plan to withdraw the initial expansion plan of constructing 2 more operation(Yonghung #7,#8) units in Yonghung Comprehensive efforts to self-achieve liabilities reduction goal Achieved liabilities reduction of KRW550bn in FY2014 and expected reduction of KRW1,168bn throughout FY Applied increase in CER(Certified Emission Reduction) cost based on the Emission Trading Scheme Unexpected changes in macroeconomic conditions such as exchange rate, inflation rate, oil price and etc
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Investment / Funding Plan
6/6/2018 3:20 AM Investment / Funding Plan 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Investment Plan (KRWbn) New Construction 319 87 1 57 463 Maintenance 367 407 405 399 336 1,914 Renewable Energy 93 46 43 28 115 324 New Business (Domestic + Foreign) 98 106 84 81 207 576 Others 39 26 24 22 23 134 Total Investment 915 672 556 531 738 3,412 Funding Plan (KRWbn) Operating Cash Flow (after tax) 934 851 749 625 770 3,929 Finance cost Loan Repayment -351 -501 -467 -552 -332 -2,203 Payment of dividends -57 -84 -45 -10 -253 Borrowing 389 406 515 310 1,939 Total Funding 5-Year Investment Plan (KRWbn)
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6/6/2018 3:20 AM Thank you
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