1. Austrian Standards institute
Mass Migration: The Devil’s Dilemma By
Professor Dr Julian Lindley-French
Vienna,
22 June, 2017

2. Austrian Standards institute
WHO AM I?
Strategist,
Advisor,
Author,
Historian

3. Austrian Standards institute
The Devil’s Dilemma
What is the scale of the challenge?
Can Europe integrate the huge numbers of people seeking to enter Europe as irregular migrants?
Can Europe reassure its own citizens?
What policies and strategies?
What role language services?

4. Austrian Standards institute
Core Messages
Europe is facing a structural shift in populations that will continue.
There is a difference between those seeking asylum and those seeking a better life that must be reflected in policy.
Mass, unregulated migration flows also increases the risk to the European citizen from Salafist jihadi terrorism.
However, an ageing Europe also needs an injection of young people.
GETTING THE BALANCE RIGHT IS THE DEVIL’S DILEMMA

5. Austrian Standards institute
The Facts 1
2015:1.2 million migrants from very different cultures and traditions entered Germany, according to EU up to 3 million entered Europe between 2015 & 2017.
Global Strategic Trends 2014 the world’s population will grow from 7.2bn people today to between 8.4bn and 10.4bn by % of that growth will occur in the developing world with 70% in the world’s nine poorest countries
An average of 3000 people each year have drowned in the Mediterranean since 2014 with an unknown number of people murdered by human traffickers en route to the Mediterranean.

6. Austrian Standards institute
The Facts 2
June 2017: The population of the Middle East will double by 2050.
May 2017: German Government estimates 6m people in North Africa seeking to enter Europe as irregular migrants.
Feb 2017: Chatham House survey – 10,000 people in 10 European countries responded to statement; “All further migration from mainly Muslim countries should be stopped”. 55% agreed, 20% disagreed, 25% neither agreed nor disagreed. In Poland 71% agreed, Austria 65% agreed, 53% in Germany, 51% in Italy, 47% in the UK.

7. Austrian Standards institute
The Management Challenge
How to balance control of migration, including the use of humane deportation, with the maintenance of humanitarianism AND the preservation of security.
How to establish a system of control that reassures Europeans that such migrations do not pose a threat to their culture and identity.
How to provide public services that can cope with such an influx.

8. Austrian Standards institute
The Security Implications
It is naïve in the extreme to believe that mass unregulated migration does not increase the security threat to Europe from Islamic State and Al Qaeda.
EQUALLY, it is important not to exaggerate this as most recent attacks (Bataclan, Brussels, Manchester and London (twice) committed by European citizens.

9. Austrian Standards institute
The Humanitarian Challenge
Specific problem is the tension between values and interests mass unregulated migration poses to Europe’s nations, leaders and institutions.
Existing international humanitarian law is out of date – Refugee Convention not fit for purpose. Nor is the Dublin Convention.

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Policy and Strategy
The sheer scale of the management and integration challenge demands a Europe-wide approach. No single European country will be able to cope.
However, reactive policies must also be matched by engagement strategies: supporting front-line states, deterrence, creating more channels for regular migration, render asylum fit-for-purpose, make institutions more coherent, break up trafficking rings.

11. Austrian Standards institute
The Critical Role of Language Services
Communication is the key to strategy and policy
Successful communication is key to understanding
Seen first hand in places like Afghanistan that language services are a key strategic enabler
Integrating good people in society and building trust is dependent on effective communications

12. Austrian Standards institute
The New Geopolitics of Terror:
Four policy options:
Do nothing;
Organise serious humanitarian action and support;
Undertake serious military interventions to defeat Islamic State and impose a solution on Syria;
Undertake serious civil and military interventions to reshape the region.

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The Bottom-line
Unless Europe is willing to seriously re-engage in MENA & Sub- Saharan Africa using all possible means and forms of engagement then not only will huge numbers of people continue to suffer, but Europe and the wider world will have to face the many consequences of the interaction between the new terrorism and the new geopolitics for which the region is the terrifying cauldron.

14. Austrian Standards institute
Neither Nostalgia or Utopia
“The choices Western leaders face will not be easy, apparent or costless. The crafting of what might be genuinely considered a grand strategy for the Middle East, i.e. one which all the major state powers support would be momentous. Such a strategy would not only require political dexterity on the part of Western leaders few if any have demonstrated, it would also require nothing short than a twenty-first century Marshall Plan for the Middle East”.
The New Geopolitics of Terror: Demons and Dragons By
William Hopkinson and Julian Lindley-French

15. Austrian Standards institute
Can a balance be struck between deterrence, management and encouragement (EU Migrant Ferry Service) be struck?
Can a balance be struck between security and humanity?
IT IS THE DEVIL’S DILEMMA
THE ROLE OF LANGUAGE SERVICES?
THANK YOU!