1. 2017 Global Economic Outlook
The
Economic Club
of Las Vegas
December 15, 2016
Lynn Reaser, Ph.D., Chief Economist
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2. Global Issues Interest rates Oil prices U.S. dollar China & Europe
Immigration
Trade and taxes
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3. World Economy Firms Index, 50 plus = expansion
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4. Negative Interest Rate Experiment Ending 10-yr government bond yields, percent
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5. Oil Prices Plunge, Climb
Brent Crude Oil, dollars per barrel, quarterly average
Actual
Forecast
f = forecast
e = estimate
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6. Broad Trade-Weighted Index, Jan. 1997=100, Dec. average
U.S. Dollar Soars
Broad Trade-Weighted Index, Jan. 1997=100, Dec. average
Actual
Forecast
f = forecast
e = estimate
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7. Real GDP, percent change over prior year
Japan Struggles
Real GDP, percent change over prior year
f = forecast
e = estimate
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8. Pesos per U.S. dollar, monthly (inverted scale)
Mexico Peso Plummets
Pesos per U.S. dollar, monthly (inverted scale)
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9. China Keeps Economy Growing
Real GDP, percent change over prior year
f = forecast
e = estimate
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10. Eurozone Improves Modestly
Real GDP, percent change over prior year
f = forecast
e = estimate
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11. Brexit Pummels UK Pound Pounds per US dollar, daily
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12. Migration Crisis Confronts EU
First time asylum applicants, quarterly totals, thousands
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13. Immigration Drives Over One-Fifth of Nevada’s Population Growth
Net immigration change, thousands
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14. China, Mexico, and Canada Dominate U.S. Foreign Trade Percent, 2015
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15. China, Mexico, and Canada Comprise 40% of Total Nevada Trade Billions of dollars
e = estimate
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16. $1 Trillion of Corporate Cash Overseas
Billions of dollars
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17. World Economy to Expand Moderately
Real GDP, percent change over prior year
2015
2017f
2016e
f = forecast
e = estimate
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18. Forecasts Risks Probability, percent
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19. Summary U.S. leads world growth Policies diverge across nations
Global interest and exchange rates react to shifts in U.S. expectations
World awaits Trump trade policies
Globalization at risk
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20. www.pointloma.edu/fbei Main Office: 619.849.2692
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