1. The Politics of U.S Foreign Policy Chapter 9

2. History: Patterns of Policymaking
Globalization
Preeminence
Rise or Restriction of presidential power
Rise of the NSC vis-à-vis State
Expansion of the national security bureaucracy
Ascent of non-security agencies
Resulting complication

3. Policymaking Stages Agenda setting Policy formulation
Policy implementation

4. Theory: Models of Decisionmaking
Rational Actor
Groupthink
Governmental politics
Organizational process

5. Rational Actor Ideal type – decision and implementation
Pyramid of authority
President dominates hierarchy
Information and advice flow directly to president
Decisions based on advice and information
EOP staff manages bureaucratic response
Rational, centralized and responsive

6. Groupthink Examples: Johnson, Reagan, Bush Overestimate competency
Stereotype out-groups
Rationalize decisions
Pressure to conform, self-censorship
Illusion of consensus
Examples: Johnson, Reagan, Bush

7. Governmental Politics Model
Pluralism
Diffusion of power
Competition
Compromise

8. Organizational Process Model
Bureaucracy: information, alternatives and implementation
The bureaucracy as an independent driving force
Decentralized
Feudal
Contradictions and incoherence
Incremental

9. Policymaking Levels
Presidential
Bureaucratic

10. Cognition and Perception
Cognitive structures of belief
Selective memory
Selective attention and perception
Causal inference
Cognitive stability

11. Dominant Theories Cognitive consistency theory: consistency seekers
Schema theory: cognitive misers

12. Common Patterns of Perception and Misperception
Categorization and stereotyping
Simplifying causal inference
Historical analogies

13. Personality and Decisionmaking
Johnson
Reagan
Bush
Obama

14. Stress and Decisionmaking
Low and moderate stress levels
High stress levels
Short term, long term

15. Crisis and Stress Heighten salience of time
Reduce size of policymaking group
Reduce tolerance for ambiguity
Increase cognitive rigidity
Encourage selective search for information
Produce concern for immediate future
Minimize communication
Increase ad hoc communication
Limit alternatives
Increase likelihood of polarized choice
Disrupt complex learning