1. Incorporating Reliability into Modeling Tools
February 12, 2015

2. Project Team KAI Metro Metropia MAG Xuesong Zhou Kiel Ova
Wayne Kittelson
Shaun Quayle
Anxi Jia
Andy Butsick
Metro
Peter Bosa
Dick Walker
Metropia
Yi-Chang Chiu
Robert Tung
MAG
Sarath Joshua
Eric Nava
Xuesong Zhou
Kiel Ova

3. FHWA Partners John Halkias (Systems Management Team Leader)
Doug Laird (Congestion Management and Pricing)
James Sturrock (ITS Operations Engineer)
Chung Tran (Transportation Operations Specialist)
Tracy Scriba (SHRP2 Reliability Coordinator)

4. Southwest Corridor Pilot Test Stakeholders
Metro
Matt Bihn (Principal Transportation Planner)
Anthony Buczek (Transportation Engineer)
ODOT
Alan Snook (Region 1 Major Projects/Planning Manager)
Chi Mai (Region 1 Transportation Analyst)
Dennis Mitchell (Region 1 Traffic Engineer)
City of Portland
Grant Morehead (Planner)
John Gillam (Transportation Manager)
Washington County
Chris Deffebach (Director and TPAC Member)
Erin Wardell (Senior Analyst)

5. Project Overview Purpose
Demonstrate the usefulness of reliability metrics
Build upon already-completed work
Employ accessible models and methods

6. Project Overview The Role of SW Corridor Stakeholders
Provide input on appropriate test strategies and performance metrics
Objectively assess the credibility and value of the tool output
Become knowledgeable resources for other agencies and peers

7. Project Overview Southwest Corridor Pilot Test Site
Multimodal analysis opportunities
Includes major arterial and parallel freeway
DynusT and VISSIM already calibrated and operational
Sources of unreliability are all in play
Weather
Crashes
Special events
Work zones

8. Project Overview MAG Regional Subarea Pilot Test Site
Leverages an existing robust crash database
Regional impact assessments of enhanced TIM and ICM strategies
Demonstrates tool applicability to a large subarea

9. Project Overview Analysis Tools DynusT: AMS Data Hub VISSIM
open-source DTA
in use by many MPO’s
Similar input schema
AMS Data Hub
open-source data integrator
Connects to other analysis tools
VISSIM
Microscopic analysis tool
Could extend tool usefulness

10. Test Plan Southwest Corridor Pilot Test Site
Calibrate/validate with days of historical data
Test effectiveness of various TSM&O strategies
Report findings/results to Stakeholder group
Solicit feedback on usefulness, credibility, SWOT analysis, et.c

11. Schedule Project work is on schedule
Tool testing and applications work will begin soon
The next Stakeholder meeting is expected to be in late summer

12. Discussion – Test Plan Components
Data Collection
Calibration and Validation
TSM&O Strategies
Reliability Metrics

13. Discussion – Test Plan Components
Data Collection
Are we missing a useful data source?
What is your assessment of the accuracy and reliability of these data sources?
Are these data available and accessible to your agency?
Other data-related issues?

14. Discussion – Test Plan Components
Calibration and Validation
Has the right time window been selected?
What are reasonable calibration targets?
What would you consider to be maximum tolerable analysis time limits?
Other calibration/validation issues?

15. Discussion – Test Plan Components
TSM&O Strategies
Any proposed strategies that should NOT be tested?
Other test strategies that might offer greater insights?
Other issues related to TSM&O strategies?

16. Discussion – Test Plan Components
Reliability Metrics
What metric(s) are most helpful in your technical assessments?
What metric(s) will best inform decision makers?
What metrics would define an acceptable analysis process?
Other issues related to performance metrics?

17. Discussion – Test Plan Components
Data Collection
Are we missing a useful data source?
Calibration and Validation
Has the right time window been selected?
What are reasonable calibrateion targets?
TSM&O Strategies
Any proposed strategies that should NOT be tested?
Other test strategies that might offer greater insights?
Reliability Metrics
What metric(s) are most helpful in your technical assessments?
What metric(s) will best inform decision makers?

18. Discussion – Feedback Expectations
Credibility
Analysis process
Analysis results
Value
Sensitivity to improvement strategy alternatives
Decision-making process
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Other

19. Next Steps Develop Analysis Framework FEB-MAR
Prepare and Calibrate Analysis Tools MAR-APR
Pilot Test the Analysis Tools on SW Corridor Network APR-JUN
Summarize and Present Results JUN-JUL
Solicit Stakeholder Feedback (2-Hr Meeting) JUL-AUG