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FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST ASIA UP TO 2020

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Presentation on theme: "FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST ASIA UP TO 2020"— Presentation transcript:

1 FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST ASIA UP TO 2020
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST ASIA UP TO 2020 Using CMAQ and REAS* *Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC Kazuyo Yamaji and Hajime Akimoto Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC), JAMSTEC, Japan Toshimasa Ohara and Jun-ichi Kurokawa National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan Itsushi Uno Kyushu University, Japan

2 NOx emission trends in Asia not consider rapid increase, 2000-2003
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 NOx emission trends in Asia WORSE CASE? policy failure case (PFC), reference (REF), policy succeed case (PSC) Future prediction base year, 2000 not consider rapid increase,

3 Objective of this simulation Future emission scenarios (REAS)*
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 Objective of this simulation To investigate future O3 changes caused by anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB emission changes) Simulation cases Past Future Met. Boundary condition Emission Inventory Anthrop. VOC (natural) BB 2000 CHASER REAS_2000 REAS_2010/2020 GEIA_1990 ACESS_2000 For the other countries REF (reference) Future emission scenarios (REAS)* For China, using 3 emission scenarios PSC (policy succeed case) PFC (policy failed case) *Ohara et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2007 Objective of this simulation To investigate future O3 changes caused by anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB emission changes)

4 NOx and NMVOC emissions (Tg/yr)
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 NOx and NMVOC emissions (Tg/yr)

5 NOx and NMVOC emission maps
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 NOx and NMVOC emission maps 2000 Emission changes ( )

6 Outline of this simulation
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 Outline of this simulation - Emission Inventory - Anthropogenic: (annually) 2000, 2010, 2020 -Meteorological Field- REASv1.1 (FRCGC) NCEP1x1 met. data (2000) Biomass burning: (annually) ACESS 2000 Biogenic NMVOC: (monthly) GEIA 1990 RAMS v4.4 in put (off line) (every 3 hour) in put (off line) - Boundary condition - CHASER (Global Chemistry Transport Model) CMAQ v4.4 Sudo et al., 2002 (monthly) Gas-Phase Chemistry: SAPRC-99 in put (off line) Aerosol Chemistry: AERO3 - Regional Chemistry Transport Model -

7 Outline of this simulation
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 Outline of this simulation - MODEL AREA - Area: East Asia RAMS domain CMAQ domain [CMAQ domain] Horizontal Resolution: 78×68 (grids), 80km mesh Vertical Resolution: 14 layers (up to 23km) [RAMS domain] 100×90(grids), 80km mesh 22 layers (up to 23km)

8 Comparison of modeled and observed O3
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 Comparison of modeled and observed O3 Tappi Oki Happo Mt. Tai Hedo

9 Japanese sites in 2000 correlation coefficients: R=0.61 (for YR.)
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 0.21 0.40 0.72 0.65 0.44 0.45 0.64 0.47 0.53 0.55 0.68 0.41 correlation coefficients: R=0.61 (for YR.) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 0.17 0.72 0.37 0.52 0.57 0.81 0.77 0.90 0.38 0.46 0.49 correlation coefficients: R=0.72 (for YR.) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 0.28 0.58 0.63 - 0.82 0.74 0.53 0.66 0.44 0.69 0.29 correlation coefficients: R=0.74 (for YR.) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.85 0.81 0.90 0.56 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.74 correlation coefficients: R=0.85 (for YR.) Observation data from Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia, EANET

10 Mt. Tai Chinese site (Mt. Tai), obs. (2004,2005) and model (2000)
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 Chinese site (Mt. Tai), obs. (2004,2005) and model (2000) Mt. Tai Observation data from Pochanart et al., 2007

11 - Yearly averaged O3 (below 2km) -
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 RESULTS - Yearly averaged O3 (below 2km) - O3 changes ( ) O3 changes ( )

12 - Monthly averaged O3 (<2km) -
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 RESULTS - Monthly averaged O3 (<2km) - -2000- -2020REF-

13 - Monthly averaged O3 in June (<2km) -
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 RESULTS - Monthly averaged O3 in June (<2km) -

14 AOT40 (Accumulated Exposure Over Threshold of 40ppb)
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 RESULTS AOT40 (Accumulated Exposure Over Threshold of 40ppb) - For tree: Critical Level 8-21ppm h - 1-4 times of Critical Level 75-85ppmh 20-80 ppm h 70-80ppmh Critical Level 80-120*ppmh * More than 5 times of Critical Level

15 larger NOx sensitivity and smaller NMVOC sensitivity
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 RESULTS Which precursor’s change, NOx or NMVOC, is sensitive to O3 growth? CEC: Central East China S1:2010PSC, R1:2010REF, F1:2010PFC, S2:2010PSC, R2:2010REF, F2:2010PFC larger NOx sensitivity and smaller NMVOC sensitivity over CEC in June. *with large anthropogenic emission increases !!

16 The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007
SUMMARY Past and future O3 over East Asia has been simulated by using CMAQ and REAS. This model system can capture O3 concentrations at monitoring sites in East Asia. REAS PFC with large NOx and NMVOC increases in China will bring about higher O3 in But, NOx decrease (REAS PSC in 2020) will be helpful to decrease of O3 in China. Additionally, NOx decreases will be also helpful to control O3 increase over East Asia. Especially in June (with high O3), REAS REF and PFC will bring about considerable high O3 at the North China Plain in 2020. Based on these model experiments, over CEC in June, O3 concentration is largely affected by NOx emission increases but is not sensitive to NMVOC emission increases.

17 The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007

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