1. Uncertainties in the RAINS cost estimates
W.Schöpp, J. Cofala, Z. Klimont, T. Ermolieva International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Uncertainties in the RAINS cost estimates

2. RAINS cost estimates RAINS performs
Cost estimate for individual technology
Cost estimate for single sectors
Cost estimate for a country
Cost curves
Uncertainties are different for each step
What are the most sensitive input parameters?

3. Uncertainty of the cost estimate of a single technology
Costs of a single technology:
c … unit cost coefficient of a technology
σc= (assumed)
X … fuel use (activity)
σx= (assumed)
Uncertainty of cost estimate:
Resulting uncertainties in technology costs
σ = 0.174

4. Uncertainty of cost estimates of a single activity
Costs of controlling an activity class (e.g., new oil power plants):
Uncertainty calculation:
Calculate average costs for activity
Calculate σ of average costs:
Resulting σ, e.g., for new oil power plants:
σ = 0.172

5. Uncertainty of the estimates of a national costs
Total country costs:
Uncertainty of country costs:
Results for UK, CLE 2010:
With σc and σx (total uncertainty)
σ = 0.093
Due to σc only (cost coefficients)
σ = 0.067
Due to σx only (activity rates)
σ = 0.066

6. Uncertainty of the estimates of national cost curves
Uncertainty of cost curves is influenced by
cost coefficients,
emission coefficients,
activity rates
Additional contributions due to
methodological uncertainty (e.g., assumption about least-cost implementation, exclusion of structural changes, etc.)
non-linearity of cost-minimizing algorithm

7. Cost curve under uncertainty

8. Cost curve with uncertainty only in unit costs

9. Conclusions Uncertainties depend on methodology
Pilot method for calculating uncertainties of costs of scenarios and first calculations available
Quantification of uncertainties of input data not available – further information necessary
National cost estimates are more reliable than input parameters (due to error compensation)
Framework for estimating uncertainties of cost curves available, but further work on numeric procedures and assumptions necessary