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Motivated System 2 Reasoning and Science Curiosity:

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Presentation on theme: "Motivated System 2 Reasoning and Science Curiosity:"— Presentation transcript:

1 Motivated System 2 Reasoning and Science Curiosity:
Motivated System 2 Reasoning and Science Curiosity: Two Individual Differences in Politically Motivated Reasoning Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many x 103 others

2

3 Behavioural Public Policy, in press
Advances in Pol. Psych. ,

4 “Skin cream experiment”

5 “Skin cream experiment”

6 Two conditions

7 Correct interpretation of data
rash decreases rash increases incorrect Numeracy score Lowess regression line.

8 Covariance & Numeracy Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

9 “Gun ban experiment”

10 “Gun ban experiment”

11 Four conditions

12 Correct interpretation of data
skin treatment Numeracy score Gun ban Lowess regression line.

13 Correct interpretation of data
skin treatment Numeracy score Gun ban Numeracy score Lowess regression line.

14 Lowess regression line.

15 Regression model for experiment results
rash_decrease 0.40 (1.57) rash increase 0.06 (0.22) crime increase 1.07 (4.02) z_numeracy -0.01 (-0.05) z_numeracy_x_rash_decrease 0.55 (2.29) z_numeracy_x_rash_increase 0.23 (1.05) z_numeracy_x_crime_increase 0.46 (2.01) z_numeracy2 0.31 (2.46) z_numeracy2_x_rash_decrease 0.02 (0.14) z_numeracy2_x_rash_increase -0.07 (-0.39) z_numeracy2_x_crime_increase -0.31 (-1.75) Conserv_Repub -0.64 (-3.95) Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.56 (2.64) Conserv_Repub_x_rash_increase 1.28 (6.02) Conserv_Repub_x_crime_increase 0.63 (2.82) z_numeracy_x_Conserv_repub -0.33 (-1.89) z_nuneracy_x_Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.33 (1.40) z_nuneracy_x__x_rash_increase 0.54 (2.17) z_nuneracy_x__x_crime_increase 0.26 (1.08) _constant -0.96 (-4.70) N = Outcome variable is “Correct” (0 = incorrect interpretation of data, 1 = correct interpretation). Predictor estimates are logit coefficients with z-test statistic indicated parenthetically. Experimental assignment predictors—rash_decrease, rash_increase, and crime_increase—are dummy variables (0 = unassigned, 1 = assigned—with assignment to “crime decreases” as the comparison condition. Z_numeracy and Conserv_Repub are centered at 0 for ease of interpretation. Bolded typeface indicates predictor coefficient is significant at p < 0.05.

16 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

17 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases 25%, ± 10 skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

18 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

19 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

20 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy 5%, ± 6 rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decrease rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

21 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

22 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

23 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

24 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

25 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

26 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

27 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

28 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

29 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy Avg. “polarization” on crime data for low numeracy partisans 25% (± 9%) Avg. “polarization” on crime data for high numeracy partisans 46% (± 17%) crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

30 Bounded rationality thesis

31 Conservative Republican
BRT prediction Reality Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

32 Conservative Republican
BRT prediction Reality Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

33 Conservative Republican
BRT prediction Reality Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

34 Conservative Republican
BRT prediction Reality Conservative Republican Adapted from Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change 2, (2012).

35 Conservative Republican
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) N = shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.

36 Conservative Republican
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Actively Open-minded Thinking (zscore) N= 750. Derived from logistic regression. Colored barsdenote 0.95 CIs.

37 Conservative Republican
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Cognitive Reflection Test (no. correct) N = Brackets denote 0.95 CIs.

38 N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.

39 N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.

40 N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.

41 N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.

42 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy Avg. “polarization” on crime data for low numeracy partisans 25% (± 9%) Avg. “polarization” on crime data for high numeracy partisans 46% (± 17%) crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

43 Bounded rationality thesis

44 Advances in Pol. Psych. ,

45

46 State of the art “Science Curiosity”/“curiosity”
Test of Science Related Attitudes (TOSRA) I am curious about the world in which we live I find it boring to hear about new ideas I would enjoy visiting a science museum at the weekend I would like to be given a science book as a present I get bored when watching science programs on TV

47 Sample self-report item

48 Sample self-report item

49 Sample (self-report) behavior

50 Sample (self-report) behavior

51 Performance measure

52 “Science Curiosity Scale” (SCS_1.0 ) A little but not closely
(item response theory 2PL) .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 probability of pro-curiosity response -3 -2 -1 2 3 science curiosity read book on “scientific research or discoveries” in last yr Read science book in last yr BSCIENCE how closely follow news on “scientific research or discoveries” Not at all very closely A little but not closely closely Science Curiosity Index (SCI) Science Curiosity Index (SCI)

53 YIF Clip: Origins of color vision

54

55 Evolution disbeliever Evolution disbeliever
Request full show: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers” Evolution believer Evolution believer probability of requesting full show Evolution disbeliever Evolution disbeliever Science Curiosity (percentie) Science Curiosity Logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 level of confidence

56 Was the information “believable”?

57

58 Study 2 goals & results: Replication & robustness of SCS
Mass Extinction: Life at the Brink Darwin’s Dangerous Idea

59 Study 2 goals & results: Replication & robustness of SCS

60 Study 2 goals & results: Replication & robustness of SCS
Mass Extinction: Life at the Brink Darwin’s Dangerous Idea Daily Hollywood Rundown

61 Study 2 goals & results: Replication & robustness of SCS

62 Study 2 goals & results: Replication & robustness of SCS

63 WTF? #2: political polarization . . . .

64 Q. Are “curious” partisans more likely to examine surprising contrary evidence?
1. Unsurprising Nonskeptic vs. Surprising Skeptical 2. Surprising skeptic vs. Unsurprising skeptical

65 Nonskeptical

66 Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs
Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs. unsurprising nonskeptical story 24% (10%, 45%) Liberal Dem. -1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression. Parenthetical values represent boundaries of 0.95 CI.

67 Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs
Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs. unsurprising nonskeptical story 24% (10%, 45%) 68% (46%, 85%) Liberal Dem. +1 SD science curiosity Liberal Dem. -1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression. Parenthetical values represent boundaries of 0.95 CI.

68 Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs
Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs. unsurprising nonskeptical story 45% (± 31%) Liberal Dem. +1 SD science curiosity Liberal Dem. -1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..

69 Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs
Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs. surprising nonskeptical story 42% (± 31%) Conserv. Repub. -1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..

70 Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs
Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs. surprising nonskeptical story 42% (± 31%) Conserv. Repub. -1 SD science curiosity 62% (± 13%) Conserv. Repub. +1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..

71 Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs
Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs. surprising nonskeptical story 20% (± 19%) Conserv. Repub. -1 SD science curiosity Conserv. Repub. +1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..

72

73 Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy Avg. “polarization” on crime data for low numeracy partisans 25% (± 9%) Avg. “polarization” on crime data for high numeracy partisans 46% (± 17%) crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

74 Conservative Republican
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) N = shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.

75 Conservative Republican
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Actively Open-minded Thinking (zscore) N= 750. Derived from logistic regression. Colored barsdenote 0.95 CIs.

76 Conservative Republican
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Cognitive Reflection Test (no. correct) N = Brackets denote 0.95 CIs.

77 2 big questions:

78 2 big questions: What next?

79 2 big questions: What next? Implications for effective science communication?


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