1. GUINEA WORM EPIDEMIOLOGY
By Alex and Dyumonwledeh

2. Purpose Build a working STELLA model
Learn about the effects of the pond level on the spread of the disease

3. Scientific Background
Parasitic Infection
Commonly found in West Africa
Ways it is spread:
Spread by worm eggs that are eaten by water fleas
Drinking infected water
Process takes a year
Symptoms
Blisters
Worms in your body

4. Cycle of Worm

5. COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH
ASSUMPTIONS: That the death rate for people with and without the disease are the same, there is no migration,death rate has no change over time.
We used STELLA to show our findings and our computations.
We made three seperate populations and linked them to show our final findings

6. MODEL

7. RESULTS
We found that the variable that effected the outcome the most is the water level.
Water level effects the reproduction of the worm therefore effecting the spread of the disease

8. GRAPH Cyclop's_reproduction_rate = .3 Human_Birth_Rate = .05
Human_death_rate = .02
Infection_rate = .001
Pond_Evaporation_rate = .01
Rainfall_Rate = 0
Recovery__Rate = .45

9. Graphs

10. ALL PICTURES

11. REFERENCES
STELLA
Erin Bell
Bob Gotwals