1. The Space for Emerging Powers: Regional or Global?
Class 5 – Emerging Powers in Comparative Perspective
Dr. Vinícius Rodrigues Vieira (Lecturer in International Relations)
FGV, São Paulo, 14 March 2016

2. Regions and the global dynamic of Power
1 ) Regional Power

3. 1 ) Regional Power Power REMEMBER!!!
State power in the international system has various dimensions;
So does the pathway to hegemony or at least influence in the globe;
The starting point seems to be the ownership of structural power;
Yet, having economic power may trigger hegemonic ambitions, although not always in worldwide scale….
Power
Military
Structural (Norms)
Cultural
Economic
1 ) Regional Power

4. 1 ) Regional Power Mechanisms for deploying power
HEGEMONY can be regional!!!
Mechanisms for deploying power
1 ) Agenda Setting: “…ability to initiate, legitimize, and advocate policy issues” (Reich and Lebow, 2014: 37);
2 ) Custodianship: stabilization of the international system in economy (economists would say that it is a provision of a public good) (Ibid.: 37), may not depend on a hegemon (Ibid.: 42);
3 ) Sponsorship: “enforcement of rules, norms, agreements, and decision-making processes as well as the maintenance of security to enhance trade and finance” (Ibid.: 43-44);
1 ) Regional Power

5. 1 ) Regional Power International Society The entire world
Regional International Societies  Formal (but more often informal) groups
States with ties in different spheres
Military  Security (neighbors)
Cultural  Similar domestic identity cleavages
Economic  Trade and other economic exchanges
Structural  Formation of regional organizations
1 ) Regional Power

6. Four types of regional interaction according to Hurrell (2006: 130).
1 ) Regional Power

7. 1. Regionalization: societal integration and the often undirected processes of social and economic interaction  no formal bloc or International Organization (IOs)  Europe before EU; 2. Regional awareness and identity: the construction of different forms of cognitive regionalism  Latin America and Africa (Pan-Africanism); 3. Regional interstate cooperation: the construction of region-wide interstate regimes in a variety of issue areas  The Americas (OAS).
1 ) Regional Power

8. 4. State-led economic integration and regional consolidation: when the region plays a defining role in the relations between the states of that region and the rest of the world, and forms the organizing basis for policy within the region across a range of issues  Current EU.  Does it require a hegemon? Ex: Germany (EU), Brazil (MERCOSUR).
1 ) Regional Power

9. Quick task: let’s think of an example for one type of regional interaction and whether it require a regional hegemon to come into existence.
Regionalization
Regional awareness and identity
Regional interstate cooperation
State-led economic integration and regional consolidation
1 ) Regional Power

10. 1 ) Regional Power Is regionalism relevant to define emerging powers?
Emerging market is NOT the same as emerging power;
Emerging powers tends to have some degree of hegemony or at least influence, even if dominance is restricted to a given region.
Economic Power
Military Power
Structural Power
Cultural Power (less likely, as it targets individuals)
1 ) Regional Power

11. 1 ) Regional Power Regions and the global dynamic of Power
Emerging Markets: countries with sizable production and consumption markets, having them the potential to increase their overall power in the world;
Emerging Powers: usually emerging markets that, due to a variety of reasons, opt to convert their growing economic clout into other forms of power.
1 ) Regional Power

13.  Blocs focused on economic cooperation
1 ) Regional Power

17. 1 ) Regional Power Regionalism is NOT a new phenomenon
Empires (Rosencrance, 2014)  Too costly
Spheres of influence based on warfare
Imperial Japan (Hurrell, 2006: 129);
Nazi Germany (Ibid.).
The method, however, changed
Economic rather than military power
And also structural!!!
1 ) Regional Power

18. HEGEMONY Power (power without influence) (influence only)
Building hegemony and influence…
emphasis on conflict
(power without influence)
Power
Military
Structural (Norms)
Cultural
Economic
Hard Power
Soft Power
Realists
Liberals
HEGEMONY
emphasis on cooperation
(influence only)

19.  Blocs focused on strategic/political alliances
1 ) Regional Power

21. Structure of Exam 1 You will have a list of 7 definitions, out of which you will select 4 to write about. I will extract the definitions from concepts found in the mandatory readings, class slides, and facts that I mention during the lectures.
Exam 1

22. Structure of Exam 1
How should you write a definition? Consider at least the following elements/implicit questions:
What?
Why? (i.e., relevance, justification for studying the concept);
Example 1 (i.e., a case that demonstrates the application of the concept);
Example 2.
Exam 1

23. Exam 1 Structure of Exam 1 Example of Definition
 Military Power: it corresponds to the use of warfare by a state against another with the purpose of coercion. It is relevant for the study of international politics—including the rise of new powers— insofar as it is an instrument through which sovereign entities reach the goals of survival and expansion. An example is the action of European powers until the first half of the 20th Century, when they competed with each other for supremacy at the regional and global level. Also, it might be one of the strategies new powers tend to employ to gain more influence around the globe as its economic might and political clout increase at the world stage.
Exam 1

27. Select four out of the seven concepts below and define them within the next 60 minutes according to the guidelines mentioned before:
Emerging Markets
Hegemonic Transitions
Hegemony
Hierarchy
Revisionism
Sponsorship
Structural (Normative) Power
Exam 1

29. 2 ) From Regional to Global
 Blocs focused on economic cooperation
2 ) From Regional to Global

30. 2 ) From Regional to Global
 Blocs focused on strategic/political alliances
2 ) From Regional to Global

31. 2 ) From Regional to Global
Question: why do economic and political/strategic blocs (which are not necessarily militar ones) not always overlap? What is their weight on global order and the process of empowerment of emeging powers? Think of a plausible answer in pairs.
2 ) From Regional to Global

32. 3) The Comparative Method

33. 3) The Comparative Method
“...[C]ase-oriented researchers are always open to the charge that their findings are specific to the few cases they examine, and when they do make broad comparisons and attempt to generalize, they often are accused of letting their favorite cases shape or at least color their generalizations” (Ragin 1987, ix)
Everything in social sciences is comparative, even quantitative research (large-N);
More specific: comparable data from at least two societies(Ibid., 3-4);
Search for mechanisms of causation (Ibid., 25).
3) The Comparative Method

34. 3) The Comparative Method
 NOT MANY EMERGING POWERS OR HEGEMONIC TRANSITIONS…  SMALL-N AS A SOLUTION FOR INFERENCE IN OUR COURSE. Core assumption in small-N research: macrosocial units are “true” (Ragin 1987, 5), enabling the search for similarities and differences (Ibid., 6).  Ex: market, regional organizations, domestic institutions. Macrosocial units are not necessarily observational units:  Observational units vs. explanatory unit (e.g.: individuals vs. society).
3) The Comparative Method

35. 3) The Comparative Method
Problem: various logically possible combinations (Ragin 1987, 14)  not always available/existent  Counterfactuals as a solution (Lebow 2010); Thinking of different causal conditions (Ragin 1987, 26) is the challenge, not the excess of variables per se.
3) The Comparative Method

36. 3) The Comparative Method
Select four out of the seven concepts below and define them within the next 60 minutes according to the guidelines mentioned before:
Emerging Markets
Hegemonic Transitions
Hegemony
Hierarchy
Revisionism
Sponsorship
Structural (Normative) Power
3) The Comparative Method

37. 3) The Comparative Method
Method of agreement vs. method of difference Ragin (1987, 36) says that the "...method of agreement argues that if two or more instances of a phenomenon under investigation have only one of several possible causal circunstances in common, then the circumstance in which all the instances agree is the cause of the phenomenon of interest".  Search for invariance (37)
3) The Comparative Method

38. The Comparative Method
Method of agreement vs. method of difference
(Indirect) method of difference (Ragin 1987, 39)
 Double application of the method of agreement
 2x2 tabulation (explanans vs. explanandum, independent vs. dependent variable)
Positive and negative cases
Including timely-based variance within the same case: think of emerging powers…
3) The Comparative Method
The Comparative Method

39. 3) The Comparative Method