1. Population change 3 Migration

2. 1.1 What is demographic change?
• The net change in the population store caused by the inputs of births and in-migration and the outputs of death and out-migration.
• Global population growth, totals, distribution and density.
1.2. How and why do populations change naturally?
• A study of countries at Stages 2-5 of the demographic transition to demonstrate variations in fertility and mortality rates, including infant mortality and life expectancy.
1.3 What is the role of migration in population change?
• Characteristics of different types of migration.
• The economic, social and environmental impacts of migration on exporting and receiving countries/regions.
1.4 What are the issues of the migration of refugees and asylum seekers?
• The causes and consequences of flows of refugees and asylum seekers into developed economies both from a historical and current dimension.
• Housing.
• Repatriation.
• The attitudes and values of migrants and hosts.
• Human rights.

3. 1.5 What are the causes and impacts of changing gender structures?
• Changing gender structures in populations as countries pass through the demographic transition.
• Social, economic and political impacts of gender structures.
1.6 What are the demographic challenges facing countries?
• The demographic causes and effects of ageing societies including issues such as dependency, workforce and pensions.
• The issues of high birth rates and high mortality rates
– including AIDS.
• Policies to alleviate the ‘demographic challenges’

4. Definition Population moves from one administrative area to another
The result of a change of address for a year or more
All others are types should be termed ‘Circulation’
United Nations
Circulation = commuting,
pastoral nomadism, holiday-making
Migration – of humans, a movement from area (usually the home area) to work or settle in another
The Penguin Dictionary of Geography – A.N. Clark
Permanent or semi-permanent change of residence of an individual or group of people
The Dictionary of Human Geography – R.J. Johnston

5. Motives The Push and Pull factors 5 categories
Physical
Demographic
Economic
Social
Political
People are pushed by adverse conditions (e.g. overpopulation, poverty, political repression, war, dislike of a development scheme) to leave an area, and are at the same time attracted to another area by what are perceived as favourable conditions (e.g. the likelihood of a better job, higher wages, freedom of movement) in that area

6. Types The Scale (Regional, National, International)
The Cause (Forced or Voluntary)
The Area (Rural to Urban, LEDC-MEDC)

7. Forced Migration
Religious or political persecution, war, natural disaster, forced labour or famine

8. Voluntary
Climate
Employment
Family
Better services

9. Internal Migration = Migration within countries Moving house
Urban to urban
Urban to rural
Rural to urban
Such as Pioneer advances across USA 1800’s +

10. International Migration
Voluntary
Colonisation of countries such as the USA up to around 1924
Most is now forced due to the tightening of immigrant policies

11. Area LEDC to MEDC (West Indies to UK in the 20th century
LEDC to LEDC – refugees moving because of wars (Africa, Rwanda, Mozambique)
MEDC – MEDC (Brain drains)
MEDC – LEDC (Missionaries, charity workers, explorers, penal settlements)

12. Models of Migration Gravity model Lee’s Model Ravenstein’s model
Stouffer’s intervening opportunity model
Zelinsky’s Mobility Transition Theory

13. Newton’s Gravity model
This model was developed from the scientific work of Isaac
Newton who noticed that the force of gravity decreased with
distance. This was applied to migration by EG Ravenstein in the
1880s and further developed by Zipf in 1946.
The number of people moving from between places A and B is equal to the population of A multiplied by the population of B and divided by the square of the distance between them.
A x B____
Distance²
Not a particularly successful model

14. The gravity model is highly simplified since it assumes that each migrant has the same information available and that migration costs are the same in all directions. The decision making process of each migrant is reduced to distance only, whereas obviously there are many other factors to consider.

15. Stouffer's law of intervening opportunities (1940)
the amount of migration over a given distance is directly proportional to the number of opportunities at the place of destination,
This is inversely proportional to the number of opportunities between the place of departure and the place of destination.
The intervening opportunities may persuade a migrant to settle in a place en route rather than proceeding to the originally planned destination.
Stouffer argued that the volume of migration had less to do with distance and population totals than with the opportunities in each location.

16. Lee’s Model 1966

17. Does not isolate push pull factors Looks at attributes for each place
Decisions based on personal factors reliant on
Age
Gender
Marital Status
Education
Socio-economic class
Some are positive factors, some are seen as negative, others as neutral, and all these influence the personal decision making process

18. Lee’s model introduces a refinement to push pull factors
Intervening Obstacles Both real or perceived
International boundaries, language, anxieties etc.

19. Ravenstein's Migration Laws (1870's-1880's)
Most migrants go only a short distance (gravity law)
Longer-distance migration favours big-city destinations
Most migration proceeds step by step
Most migration is rural to urban
Each migration flow produces a counter flow (i.e. return to place of birth)
Most migrants are adults--families are less likely to make international moves
Most international migrants are young males
Ernst George Ravenstein was a German geographer who moved to England and researched census data from the 1881 census. His findings led him to propose the above ‘laws’ as general patterns of migration.

20. Two way Nature of Migration
Often movement in population between two places is both ways, but unequal
The stronger one is called Dominant
The weaker is the reverse or counter migration
The Total volume is called the Gross Interchange whilst the difference is the Net Migration Balance
e.g. Pakistan to UK 1997
6000 Pakistanis entered the UK
2000 Pakistanis returned to Pakistan.

22. Stepwise migration model
This model was developed from Ravenstein’s laws showing that many migrants move in a series of steps.
Stepwise migration model

23. Clark’s Behavioural Model
This model concentrates more on the reasons an individual has for migrating. These include internal factors (the person’s needs) and external factors (the local environment and community) which affect the person’s decision.

24. Zelinsky’s model of mobility transition
This theory parallels the demographic transition model defining major changes in migration type over time from the pre-industrial to the advanced industrial society.

25. Differential Migration
Based on the principle that some people are more likely to migrate than others
Significant factors include:
Age
Gender
Education
Occupation
In most countries young males seem the most migratory
Gender depends on the country’s development
In LEDC’s men make up the majority of migratory streams
Education has a direct bearing on occupation and therefore possibly mobility. Professionals are more migratory than unskilled.

26. Consequences of Migration

27. Demographic Consequences
Changes in the numbers and distribution of people within a region are changed.
Intermarriages are created, leading to a new group of people.

28. Social Consequences
Migration brings different people together leading to conflicts.
Migration however also creates understanding between different groups of people.
Rural-Urban migration creates ghettoes in cities.

29. Economic Consequences
This depends on the "quality" of the migrants and the economic needs of the origin and destination. Quality refers to skills, age, educational attainment, health etc.
In overpopulated areas, emigration is beneficial because it reduces the pressure on the land.
In underpopulated areas, emigration may slow down development.
SOLVING IMMIGRATION / PROBLEMS OF IMMIGRATION