1. Announcement 4월 3일 이번 주 목요일 수업 휴강! 미국 시카고 학회 참석차 2일 출국, 7일 귀국
미국 시카고 학회 참석차 2일 출국, 7일 귀국
이번 주 reading
“18대 대선과 세대론”
대통령의 성공조건 Ch 3 & Ch 4
목요일 토론은 없으나 시험범위

2. Presidential Election
The “chief factors” influencing
how people vote in presidential elections
Party Orientation (Partisan Identification: Party ID)
Campaign Promises (선거공약)/ Policy Preferences (정책선호)
Retrospective judgments on the performance of the incumbent or their political party (회고적 투표)
The way people perceive the integrity, character, and judgment of the candidates
이념, 지역주의, 세대론 등 (독립적인 변수인가?)

3. 박원호(2013) “18대 대선과 세대론” “silver democracy” vs. “youth democracy”?

4. Retrospective Voting (회고적 투표) Ex) “Economic Voting” Theory
One scientific theory on presidential election:
 “Economic Voting” theory
Voting for or against the incumbent party or president
based on the conditions of the economy
 If the economy is good (bad), the incumbent party
candidate is likely to be elected (lost) for elections.
 Rewarding or Punishing?
Retrospective voting vs. Future expectations?
“Are we better off today than four years ago?”
“Which party do you think is better handling the economy?”

5. Economic Voting Theory (rewarding?)

6. Economic Voting Theory (punishing?)

7. Prediction Election and Scientific Approach
“Economic Voting” Theory
Perfect prediction? Historical examples?
Is this theory working in the case of Korea?
If so, how so? If Not, why not?
On what grounds, can we predict electoral outcome?
= should consider many other factors about the influence of money, race, gender, turnout, campaign,
policy, candidate characters, etc

8. 대선후보 선출: 미국 케이스 http://www. nytimes
대선후보 선출: 미국 케이스 (미국 민주당 전당대회 역사)
Two key questions over presidential selections
I. How much democratic is the selection process?
Who are selecting presidents?
historical change over time
King Caucus  State and local party bosses 
Primary system (US Presidential Elections)
II. How much desirable is the selection process?
Who are selected as candidates and presidents?
Does the nominating process attract the most qualified candidates?

9. How much democratic? I. King Caucus (1800-1824)
Party members in Congress gathering in caucus and
endorsing a contender by plurality vote
Advantage given to Washington insiders like cabinet
secretaries and congressional leaders
Ex) William Crawford (Secretary of War under the Madison
administration)  the caucus nominee for 1824 election
Ex) Henry Clay (two-time candidate in 1832 and 1840)

10. How much democratic? I. King Caucus (1800-1824)
Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, and John Quincy Adams all served as Secretary of State ( “heir inherent”)
Development of a “Cabinet Government”
 a prescription for a weak and indecisive presidency
(Adams and Madison)
James Madison and the War Hawks (the War of 1812)

11. How much democratic? II. State and local party bosses
The abandonment of King Caucus
followed by the rise of the “Jacksonian Democracy” in the
1830s
By 1836, all the candidates nominated by the boss-
dominated convention system (“smoke-filled rooms”)

12. How much democratic? II. State and Local Party Bosses
bosses engaging in influence peddling and corruption in the
administration of a president they had handpicked
From 1832 to 1936, a two-thirds vote rule for Democratic
nomination with North and South playing veto
TR, Taft, Wilson, Hoover, FDR, and Eisenhower

13. How much democratic? III. The primary and caucus system
Unpopularity of the Vietnam War
with party activists
Mobilization of a newly enfranchised
African American voters in the South;
the student movement on campuses
The Chicago Convention in 1968

14. How much democratic? III. The primary and caucus system
Vice President Hubert Humphrey won
the nomination in 1968 without
entering a single Democratic primary,
while many rank-and-file Democrats
and antiwar activists supporting Sen.
Eugene McCarthy (“Clean Gene”)
From the bosses to voters
the McGovern-Fraser commission

15. Percentage of Delegates Selected
Percentage of Delegates Selected Through Presidential Primaries, by Party,

16. Maybe, no perfectly democratic system?
I. King Caucus Nominees might be captured by congressional members and party caucus II. State and local convention system Nominees might be captured by party bosses III. Primary and caucus system Nominees might be captured by special interests, large campaign contributors, and the media