1. Effectuation Transforming Uncertainty into Opportunity
Stuart Read
Professor

2. https://applications. imd. ch/ViewsFlash/servlet/viewsflash

3. OK – now – a Triple Feature: Effectual Principles, an Interesting Venture, and Your Data

4. Causal principles (blue) what is taught in bschool
To get started
Causal principles (blue) what is taught in bschool
Effectual principles (red) the logic of expert entrepreneurs 4

5. Meet Tom

6. Goals. Given (based on prediction)
Where to Start
Goals. Given (based on prediction)
Means. The ingredients of new opportunities:
Who I am
What I know
Whom I know

7. Terracycle Organic fertilizer packaged in used plastic containers

8. Risk, Return and Resources
Expected Return. Calculate upside potential and pursue the (risk adjusted) best opportunity.
Affordable Loss. Calculate downside potential and risk no more than you can afford to lose.

9. From there, expansion into “upcycled” consumer products, using the core principle of affordable loss.

10. Attitude Toward Others
Competition. Set up transactional relationships with customers and suppliers.
Partnership. Build your “future” together with customers, suppliers and even prospective competitors. 10

11. As the Terracycle product range has grown, the firm needed more and more partners to help them “eliminate the idea of waste”

13. Leverage Surprises. Basis of new opportunities.
Avoid Surprises.
Leverage Surprises. Basis of new opportunities. 13

14. Underlying Logic & What to Do
To the extent we can predict the future, we can control it.
 PLAN
To the extent we can control the future, we don’t need to predict it.
 CO-CREATE 14

15. So creating new opportunities looks a lot less like a puzzle with a single and perhaps magical solution…

16. To a crazy quilt – assembled from the things at hand by the people who commit to working on it.

17. Effectuation Transforming Uncertainty into Opportunity
Stuart Read
Professor