1. Options and Mandates: Trends in Equipment Installation Rates

2. Factory Installations
Bi-annual report on U.S. installation rates on domestic and import light vehicles by company, brand, and model line including:
Engines by model line, no. of cylinders, displacement, aspiration, boosted engines
Bodystyle
Transmission type, brakes, drivetrain, stability control
Air conditioning, power equipment, leather seats, and styled wheels
ADAS, cameras, navigation
Sound, infotainment systems

3. Fuel economy Market demand for fuel economy
Largely viewed, experienced as cost savings measure
Some may pay to be green, others less likely to prioritize
Government demand for fuel economy
Lower emissions
Public health (NOx)
Global warming(CO2)
Reduced fuel dependency

4. WardsAuto Fuel Economy Index

5. U.S. LV Share by Vehicle Type

6. U.S. LV Share by Segment

7. U.S. Light Vehicle Hybrid & Electric Engine Installations
2016 – 2.2% down from MY ‘13 high of 3.6%
Hybrids fall to lowest % in 5 years
Electrics down, but still 2nd highest ever
Source: WardsAuto

8. WardsAuto Fuel Economy Index

9. U.S. Light-Vehicle Engine Installations by Cylinder
2016 – 4 cylinder rebound 55% penetration rate
6-cylinders down slightly each year, falling from 37.5% to 29.9% - less than 1 in 3
8-cylinder decline (1 in 7)
Source: WardsAuto

10. U.S. Light-Vehicle Engine Installations by Cylinder
Cars
Light Trucks

11. U.S. Average Cylinders per Engine by Vehicle Type

12. Boosted Engine Penetration Rates

13. U.S. Light Vehicle Transmission Installation Rates
'12 Model Year
'16 Model Year Mid -Year
Source: WardsAuto

14. U.S. Light Vehicle Transmission Installation Rates
'12 Model Year
'16 Model Year Mid -Year
Source: WardsAuto

15. Transmissions
2016 – 6-speed automatic still dominant, but now at the lower end of forward gears
31% of transmissions were manuals or lower-gear automatics in ’12 vs. 7.5% in ‘16
17% were higher-gear automatics in ‘16 vs. 4.1% in ’12
CVTs account for nearly 1 out of 5 transmissions in ‘16 vs 1 out of 13 in ’12
Manuals dropped from 5.9% to 3.3% penetration

16. Safety Market demand Government demand for safety
People pay for the safety they can afford
Tangible risks associated with lack of safety
Government demand for safety
Public health and safety
38,300 automobile-related deaths in 2015 (NSC)
Largest % rise in 50 years
4.4 million serious injuries

17. Rear Cameras/Rear Object Sensor (Sonic)
100% rear camera penetration (10K lbs. and below) mandated by MY ’18
Sonic Sensor penetration has been static since camera mandate announced in 2014
NHTSA estimated 75% penetration without mandate
’16 Front camera penetration just 5.2%
Front sensors 16.5%

18. Look at that giant screen we put in your car – no don’t!
Over 90% of ‘16 vehicles have multi-Informational displays
Even more came with hands-free Bluetooth Link (95%)
Heads-Up Displays are in 3.5% of MY ‘16 vehicles
92% have voice recognition systems

19. Taking advice vs giving up control
Emergence of alert systems followed closely by related advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS)
Don’t just tell me – do something: ADAS, more complicated and expensive, but emerging quickly. Tracked systems near or above 10% penetration in ’16
Self-parking - 4.9%

20. Stop hitting things!
A different new model? 20 automakers (99% of U.S. market) agree to make automatic emergency braking (AEB) standard by ‘23 MY year
NHTSA estimates will save ~4,000 lives per year
Agreement brings AEB to near-mandate levels an estimated three years before traditional regulatory process

21. Connectivity Market demand for connectivity
Because phones (but also… we have phones)
Government interest for connectivity
Connected infrastructure (vague)
Safety , traffic control, fuel/emissions
Real connectivity requires multiple players

22. Connected-ish Infotainment Replicating phone-ctionality
Often represent additional revenue streams

23. Summary
Government always shapes the industry - directly and indirectly
When market and regulations are in sync, change is faster, but mandates are often the only way path to meeting public policy goals
Fuel economy
Disconnect: Market associates fuel economy with savings – not public policy goals
Standards being met through market-friendly means (for now)
Engines downsizing, turbo-charging
Advanced transmissions, CVTs increasing
Broader ZEV demand looming (Paris, post 2025)
Safety
Public and government understand safety the same way
Goals being addressed by market, mandate, and “volunteerism”
Vehicles becoming more “alert” and “proactive” but independent of other vehicles, infrastructure
Connectivity
Technology abounds, but phones, not cars, are setting the bar for market demand
Government goals/ role in autonomy/mobility still not clear
Path forward will likely require standards for sectors beyond just automotive

24. Subscriber links: Installation rate datasheets
“Engine Mix Steady, CVTs Roar” – Al Binder

26. Global production by country, plant, program, nameplate
VEHICLE FORECAST
Global production by country, plant, program, nameplate
Eight-year planning window, all updated monthly
Medium and heavy duty truck volumes included for N.A.
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

27. FORECASTING TOOLS
Powerful database and reporting tools to customize your output
Presentation-ready reports and filter options
Weekly, monthly and quarterly deliverables for additional detail and perspective
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

28. POWERTRAIN FORECAST
Realistic picture of powertrain volumes, updated monthly
Engine, transmission, hybrid & electric
Eight-year forecast, updated monthly
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

29. All current and future product plans with SOP and EOP, updated monthly
PRODUCT CYCLES
All current and future product plans with SOP and EOP, updated monthly
By Manufacturer, Brand, Platform, Program, Nameplate, Plant, Average Lifetime Volume
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

30. GREEN POWERTRAIN STRATEGIES REPORT
Green vehicle and powertrain technology product plans by OEM and segment
US Light Vehicle Sales forecast by segment, powertrain technology and OEM
Analysis of underlying assumptions, relative strengths, and the potential risks of each OEM’s green strategy
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

31. Talk with us today to learn how
WardsAuto can help you
Lisa Williamson
Brian Priestly