1. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
China Demography
Based on IIASA & other data sources
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

2. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
History accessed on 5/12/2008
Note that without the Industrial Revolution China started growing around 1700
This was the beginning of its Demographic Boom or Transition.
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

3. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
Post PRC Trends
Population Momentum Starts 1950s – 1970s
High Density Hot Spots = High Environmental Impacts
Questionable social engineering – think disaster of Great Leap Forward (30 million die)
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

4. Current Growth from Demographic Momentum
China has the largest population in the world, with more than 1,393,783,836 as of July , one fifth of the world's total. Every year the country adds about another 8 million*
Note the various estimates for current population
* NYC population 8.5 million
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

5. Projections Show Ever Slowing Momentum & Multiple Estimates
UN Projection: 1994 Revision
UN Projection: 1998 Revision
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

6. Decline Still a Generation Away IIAS Projection
2nd projection
1.23 billion people in 1995
1.37 today 2017 (notice difference from previous page)
1.54 predicted top in 2030
1.385 a decline in 2050
Current estimates assume China will stop growing maybe as early? as 2025
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

7. However, Aging Already Here
Those in Reproductive years is at/near peak
Aged have been climbing
Infants/Kids Declining
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

8. Current Fertility Rate
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

9. Driving Factor to Change
Surveys have documented a lifestyle change
among those sections of the urban population that have benefited most from China’s economic development. They prefer later marriages, later first births, and increased birth spacing, not only because these decisions are promoted by the family planning program, but also because they make it easier to improve one’s education or pursue a career.
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

10. Highest Concentrations
Density > 500 persons per sqkm
Result is most stress on Environment and Resource Base
Density > 150 persons per sqkm
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

11. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
Man-Made Disasters
Mao’s Great Leap Forward
1990 Pyramid
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

12. Animation of Demographic Change
Click below or on demographic pyramid to see animation of changes ( )
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

13. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
eeReRefd
Regional Variations
TFR = Total Fertility Rate
Shanghai & Beijing only places not reproducing selves
Past 1975
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

14. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
Note the tremendous change, only Tibet and Guizhou have growth – both minority areas
Recent 2000
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

15. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
Present
Fertility Rate
Might Minorities & Environment help understand this map
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

16. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
2004 – Birth Rate
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

17. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
Estimated 2015 National Crude Death Rate is 7.53 which would mean some provinces are now loosing population
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

18. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
CURRENT SITUATION
China - Total fertility rate
Home > China > People > Total fertility rate
Total fertility rate: 1.54 children born/woman (2011 est.) Total fertility rate by Year Chart Total fertility rate Rank Chart
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

19. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
About the same as Canada and Eastern Europe
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

20. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
Japan Comparison
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

21. Even Some Minorities like Tibetans are now below replacement
Replacement Level
Source:
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

22. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

23. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
It’s Raining Men
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

24. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
CLICK
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

25. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
Loud and goofy but bascic outline click here
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

26. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
Shortage of marriageable women in China
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

27. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

28. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
One Child Policy ???
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)

29. China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)
As they would say in Northeastern India and Nepal … “bafari baff,… baff, baff, baff!!!”
China Demographics (IIASA & Other sources)