1. Concerning Thunderstorm (Potential) prediction
Jan PARFINIEWICZ ,
Inst. of Meteorology and Water Management,MOLC
Warszawa, ul. Podleśna 61, Poland

2. Essential: Self-learning Engine Thunderstorms Quantification End-User oriented Warning System

3. Self-learning Engines: 1) Kalman Filter (KF) 2) Artificial Neural Network some generalisation to KF: after each signal an automatic renewal of the multi-regression set of parameters KF++’s: basic statistics allows on dispersion control (clasical physics)

4. Thunderstorms Quantification at 1st: SYNOP WW code => Convection Strength (CS) [0-7]
CS Clouds
0 No
1 light Cu
2 moderate Cu med.
3 quite strong Cb cal.
4 Thunder possib. Cb cap.
5 Thunder
6 Hail possibility
7 Hail
to be done:
Tornado’s SuCell’s
data WW2CS / !
+2,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0, !0
+1,0,0,5,1,2,2,6,7,7, !1
+0,0,0,0,0,4,3,3,0,5, !2
+0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5, !3
+1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0, !4
+0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0, !5
+2,1,1,1,1,1,0,1,0,1, !6
+0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0, !7
+4,4,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3, !8
+6,5,5,5,5,6,7,6,5,7/ !9
at 2end:

5. Tempora mutantur at nos mutamur in illiss The System has been learning & I was learning together Recognizing SuperCell as a mobile Power Station [W/m2] - TORNADO generator scaling strength of Tornado :1 – 5 where 1 is Chojnice,PL , episode: :14.30’-15.30’ [W/m2] ~ [MJ/10’*10km^2]

6. Chojnice,PL , episode: 20120714:14.30’-15.30

7. End-User oriented Warning System
End-User = Casualties
Essential:
EMPATHY to CASUALTIES
categories:
1) Presentation system (W. Łazarewicz)
2) Precise Warning Message System
3) End-User Entity including Verification

8. Presentation: http://awiacja. imgw
Presentation: 1)Observed storms: all moderate severe … time scale time scale
Severe Tornado

9. Presentation: http://awiacja. imgw
Presentation: categories: 1) Observed storms ) Possible danger zone Pb+ = 1 3) Storm Potential ) Strength of convection model option COSMO: 07km/14km
Observed storms
2) Possible danger zone Pb+ = 1

10. CONCLUSIONS
Include Tornado’s scaling into prediction Continue search for potential predictors Dewelop 3-step Warnig System :12h, 3h, 1/2h