1. V&H, Chapters 3&4 Betts, pages 379-415
Arms Races and War
V&H, Chapters 3&4
Betts, pages

2. Defining Arms Races
Two or more states increase their military more rapidly than normal
The buildup occurs in peacetime
The race is a result of external competition, not domestic politics
Parity?

3. Two Competing Models Para Bellum Model
If you desire peace, prepare for war
Anarchic self-help system; nations must be ready to defend their sovereignty

4. Two Competing Models Armaments-Tension Spiral Model
Arms races increase tension and hostility (security dilemma)
Arms races increase uncertainty
This produces a spiral of arms buildups and tensions, which can lead to conflict

5. The Wallace Study
Hypothesis: Disputes which are accompanied by arms races are more likely to result in war.
Data: Great Power disputes from
Arms races: both sides averaging at least 10% growth in military expenditures over a 10 year period.

6. Wallace’s findings Crisis escalation to war No escalation to war Total
Arms Race 23 5 28
No Arms Race 3 68 71 26 73 99

7. Wallace’s findings
Strong relationship between arms races and dispute escalation to war (Yule’s Q=.98)
23 of 26 crises during arms races (88.5%) escalated to war
Only 5 of 73 non-arms-race crises (6.8%) escalated to war
23 of 28 wars (82.1%) began during arms races

8. Limitations (Diehl) Dyadic measure of conflict (26 cases -> 8 wars)
Inclusion of disputes not independent of ongoing wars (WWI and WWII account for 80% of his cases)
Definition of arms race problematic

9. Diehl’s replication
Only 25% of disputes preceded by a mutual military buildup escalated to war (one case is WWI, the other two are WWII)
Arms races may play a role in bringing about large global wars
In this regard, they are similar to alliances