1. The Death and Life of Great Virginia Localities Luke Juday
Demographics Research Group
Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service
University of Virginia

3. Population growth in the 20th century

4. “When the tide goes out, you find out who’s been swimming naked.”
~ Warren Buffett

5. Components of Population Change
+30
Natural Increase
Net Migration
+40
-10
Births
Deaths
In-migration
Out-migration
100 60 80 90

6. Male
Female

7. Ability to attract young people matters...

8. Young adults and births:
Birthrate per 1000 women in age cohort:
10.6
51.0
100.8
105.8
79.0
24.2

9. Virginia Population Change: 2010 to 2015
Net Migration
Natural Increase

10. Natural Increase and
Aging

11. Natural Increase and
Aging

13. ?
Natural Increase and
Aging

14. Natural Increase and
Aging

15. Probability of death in a given year by age

16. Natural Increase and
Aging

19. Increasingly Decreasing

20. Increasingly Decreasing

21. Increasingly Decreasing

22. Increasingly Decreasing

23. Increasingly Decreasing

24. Increasingly Decreasing

25. But there’s always migration!
Census estimates for Virginia:

26. After decades of growth, a decline in migration
Census estimates for Virginia

27. After decades of growth, a decline in migration
IRS estimates for net domestic migration in Virginia

28. Population growth: 2000 to 2005

29. Population growth: 2010 to 2015

30. Death and Life in the Localities

31. Components of Change by Region
Northern Virginia
Hampton Roads
Richmond-
Petersburg
Small Metros*
Rural Counties (nonmetro)
*Bristol, Roanoke, Charlottesville, Blacksburg, Lynchburg, Staunton/Waynesboro, Winchester

32. Births
Deaths

33. Booming
Shedding
Attracting
Declining

34. Booming

35. Shedding

36. Attracting

37. Declining

38. Booming

39. Revitalized Central Cities
Booming
Revitalized Central Cities
In metro areas with strong economies
With urban amenities
Colleges, hospitals, tech
Attracting educated young adults
Expanding Suburbs
In metro areas with strong economies
With room to grow
Attracting families from central city, as well as other age groups

40. Richmond City [2010]

42. Arlington County [2010]

46. Chesapeake City [2010]

47. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “College Enrollment and Work Activity of 2014 High School Graduates,” April 16,

50. 100%

51. Nearly a quarter of Arlington’s residents are 25-34 year-old college graduates
Arlington and Alexandria combined have 4.5% of the state’s population, but 16.3% of its year-old college grads
Northern Virginia has just over a quarter of Virginia’s population, but over half of its college-educated year-olds

52. Shedding

53. Birth rate

54. Why cities are always losing people but keep growing+2 -4

55. Fairfax County [2010]

57. Virginia Beach [2010]

59. Attracting

64. Lancaster County

65. Lancaster County

66. Lancaster County

68. Grayson County

69. Grayson County

70. Grayson County

71. Declining

75. The Magnets