1. INLS 151
Mon April

2. learning outcomes for today…
Explore relation between social media, information evaluation and decision making
Distinguish between two models of decision theory (optimizing & satisficing)
Identify and describe examples of bias surrounding information behavior and decision-making

3. Team Members
Topic
Presentation Date
Jorge
How/why have U.S. attitudes toward homosexuality changed in recent years?
April 18
Grace & Emily
What is the relationship between gender, happiness and income?
April 20 or 25
Addie, Dorian, Lunden & Jennifer
How does self-reported level of general happiness relate to family income?
April 20
Colin, Jake & Aiden
What is the relationship between armed service personnel (and veterans) and gun ownership?
Rishabh, Anna, Kelly & Kalsey
April 25
Anis, Nick, Cassandra & Joseph
What is the relationship between income and gender?
Alex and Ranni
Gun ownership by region of country: Do stereotypes of rural American South hold true?

4. Spence, P. R. , Lachlan, K. A. , Edwards, A. & Edwards, C. (2016)
Spence, P.R., Lachlan, K.A., Edwards, A. & Edwards, C. (2016). Tweeting fast matters,
but only if I think about it: Information updates on social media. Communication
Quarterly, 64(1), doi: /
Experiment designed to examine the impact of update speed on a social media page on the amount of cognitive elaboration (i.e. thinking about) a viewer had after exposure and subsequent judgments of source credibility (competence, goodwill, and trustworthiness) and desire for more information.
Research questions / hypothesis(es):
The speed of updates on a social media site will be positively associated with the
perceived credibility of the site’s source through its effect on elaboration
(with specific regard to risk communication, information needs to be updated frequently for the public to find it credible.)
Method: participants viewed a Twitter page from the CDC on the topic of the current flu season in 3 states of speed
Findings
Organizations were seen as most trustworthy in the condition with immediate updates (putting needs of stakeholders first). But… as in the fairytale, social media users may rely on a “Goldilocks” heuristic, in which both too fast and too few slow updates may impact specific credibility perceptions. .

5. Using Twitter as a news outlet can be risky
Using Twitter as a news outlet can be risky. There are many cases in which false news has been spread due to a mistake made by the initial source. My question is: do news providers prepare for the risk of false information originating and being spread from their source, and what do they do, if anything, to correct this misinformation? 
-Lunden
It is quite evident that people are starting to use social media to seek information concerning risks or crises…I wanted to know if Twitter or other social media sites will ever start to edit or review “tweets” and posts that present information to the public?. False information seems like a heavy liability on the sites image, so is there any ideas on how to protect their credibility?
-Anis
YES, to an extent: machine reading/algorithms to analyze “trustworthiness” and security officers at companies like Twitter…

6. A bat and a ball cost $1. 10 in total
A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?

7. “People are not accustomed to thinking hard and are often content to trust a plausible judgment that comes quickly to mind.”
Daniel Kahneman. (2003). American Economic Review 93 (5), p. 1450

8. Two-systems of thought [exist in parallel]
Intuitive, implicit more “perceptual”
Affective
Heuristic-based
Relies on mental shortcuts
Unconscious
Automatic
Evolved early
Independent of general intelligence
Relatively invulnerable to aging
Generally faster
General feeling of certitude
System 2
Explicit and rule-based
More “analytical”
Conscious
Slow
Effortful
Controllable
Logical / abstract
Constrained by working memory, sequential
Permits hypothetical thinking
Correlated with general intelligence
Develops with age and is more vulnerable to aging

9. Decision Theory Focuses on how we use our freedom
Assumption
There are options to choose between
We choose in a non-random way
Our choices are goal-directed activities

10. Goal-directed behavior in the presence of options
Decision theory is concerned with…

11. The Classical Model: Rational Choice Theory or Optimizing
Assumptions…
human beings have well-ordered preferences
people go through life with all their options arrayed before them, as if on a buffet table
we have complete information about the costs and benefits associated with each option
we compare the options with one another on a single scale of preference, or value, or utility
and after making the comparisons, we choose so as to maximize our preferences, or values, or utilities.
von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of games and economic behavior.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

12. The Classical Model: Rational Choice Theory or Optimizing
To make the best decision:
define the problems
establish goals and objectives
generate all possible alternatives
consider the consequences of all alternatives
evaluate all alternatives
select the best alternative
implement and evaluate the decision

13. Mathematical Decision Process Models:
Expected Value Theory
The rational procedure is to:
identify all possible outcomes
determine their values (positive or negative)
determine the probabilities that will result from each course of action
multiply the two to give an expected value
Expected value theory says you should always choose the option with the HIGHEST EXPECTED VALUE

14. Probability of outcome
Expected Value
Option 1
50%
$100
Option 2
80%
$59

15. Expected value theory indicates option 1 is best
Probability of outcome
Outcome
Expected Value
Option 1
50%
$100
.5 x 100 = 50
Option 2
80%
$59
.8 x 59 = 47.2
Expected value theory indicates option 1 is best

16. Probability of outcome
Expected Value
Option 1
100%
$1,000,000
Option 2
50%
$3,000,000

17. Probability of outcome
Expected Value
Option 1
100%
$1,000,000
1,000,000
Option 2
50%
$3,000,000
1,500,000
EV says you should prefer option 2 to option 1.
Many people prefer 1 to 2. Why?
Option 1 is a sure thing … option 2 is a gamble…

18. Probability of outcome
Expected Value
Option 1
95%
$1,000,000
Option 2
50%
$3,000,000

19. Probability of outcome
Expected Value
Option 1
95%
$1,000,000
950,000
Option 2
50%
$3,000,000
1,500,000
$3 million is not really three times as desirable a consequence as $1 million…I would probably be MORE satisfied with an almost sure million than to risk gaining nothing…

20. Mathematical Decision Process Models:
Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT)
We can construct a scale, called a utility scale in which we try to quantify the amount of satisfaction (UTILITY) we would derive from each option

21. Multiattribute Utility Theory MAUT
Attribute A
Degree of importance (utility) of A
Attribute B
Degree of importance (utility) of B
Option 1
Low cost .5
Low quality .3
Option 2
High cost
High quality .8
Assigning weights

22. behavioral economics
assumption of complete information that characterizes rational choice theory is implausible
choice theorists treat information itself as a “commodity,” something that has a price (in time or money), and is thus a candidate for consumption along with more traditional goods
Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., & Johnson, E. J. (1993). The adaptive
decision maker. New York: Cambridge University Press.

23. Satisficing model of decision making
Simon argued that the presumed goal of maximization (or optimization) is virtually always unrealizable in real life, owing both to the complexity of the human environment and the limitations of human information processing.
Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man, social and rational: Mathematical
essays on rational human behavior. New York: Wiley.

24. Satisficing model of decision making
In choice situations, people actually have the goal of “satisficing” rather than maximizing. To satisfice, people need only to be able to place goods on some scale in terms of the degree of satisfaction they will afford, and to have a threshold of acceptability.

25. To satisfice is to pursue not the best option, but a good enough option.
Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man, social and rational: Mathematical
essays on rational human behavior. New York: Wiley.

26. satisficing: when you don’t have the time or
To satisfice is to pursue not the best option, but a good enough option.
Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man, social and rational: Mathematical
essays on rational human behavior. New York: Wiley.
satisficing: when you don’t have the time or
just don’t care enough to do the very best

27. info behavior & decision making
Are we biased?
Asking another way – do we use simplifications and shortcuts to make decisions?
Like what?

28. Traps (biases) in decision making to avoid
Anchoring
Giving disproportional weight to early, first received information
Comfort
A bias toward alternatives that support the status quo
Recognition
Tendency to place a higher value on that which is familiar
Confirmation bias
Using only the facts that support our decision
Sunk-cost
Tendency to make decisions that justify previous decisions that are not working
Framing
Framing of the problem impacts the eventual solution
Prudence
Tendency to be overcautious when faced with high-stakes decisions
Memory
Tendency to base predictions on memory of past events, which are often over influenced by both recent and dramatic events

29. Traps (biases) in decision making to avoid
Self-serving bias
Tendency for individuals to attribute their own successes to internal factors while putting the blame for failures on external factors
Halo Effect
Drawing a general impression (good or bad) about an individual on the basis of a single characteristic
Projection
Attributing one’s own characteristics or beliefs to other people
Stereotyping
Judging someone on the basis of one’s perception of the group to which that person belongs
Overconfidence
Believing too much in our own ability to make good decisions

32. How can these things be regulated or should they?
As someone who regularly uses Twitter, I've first-hand seen how social media can greatly affect people's lives, either positively or negatively. Twitter can cause things to become viral in only a matter of hours.
-Grace
How can these things be regulated or should they?
-Kalsey
However the Article and study fail to mention the critical role that social media like twitter has in places where media is censored. It has been called that Twitter and other sources of information where pivotal in Revolutions like the Arab Spring. Even now in Venezuela Twitter is used for everything…
-Jorge

33. Effective presentations
Jon Ronson’s Ted Talk, online shaming
effective? why/how?

34. effective presentations
Jon Ronson’s Ted Talk, online shaming
effective? why/how?
thoughtful and meaningful phrasing (e.g. voiceless people, privilege, democratized justice)
concrete examples and stories
finding common ground with audience (e.g. “that sad feeling that we all get when the internet doesn’t congratulate us for being funny”)
taking apart and exploring/probing words
narrates a storyline that we are compelled to follow
big themes & repetition (beginning, middle and end)

35. Use definite, specific, concrete language
Choose a suitable design and hold to it
Use the active voice
Omit needless words
Put statements in positive form