1. IRI Experience
with many partners, developing the capacity to manage climate-related risks in key climate-sensitive sectors: agriculture, food security, water resources management, public health, disasters
connects to development goals/programs
Climate knowledge/information as a resource

2. “strong” forecast
founding of IRI was motivated by anticipation of this kind of situation

3. Public Health Malaria in Botswana
Epidemic prone country
Good surveillance system for epidemics
20 years of data for historic analysis
Interested in incorporating seasonal
climate forecasts into malaria control planning
(Currently: observed climate anomalies)
RBM MoH WHO

4. climate information in malaria control
Activities:
Demonstrate the use of
climate information in
malaria control
Expected Output
Malaria Early Warning System
RBM MoH WHO

5. DJF rainfall (CMAP) and national malaria incidence (Jan-Jun)
Potential of Seasonal Climate Forecast to predict high/low Malaria years
Anomalies in DJF SSTs,
DJF rainfall (CMAP) and national malaria incidence (Jan-Jun)
in Botswana
( )

6. Information can be used to initiate timely interventions
Observed rainfall and DEMETER rainfall forecast in relation to high and low malaria anomaly years
Observed and forecasted Climate Anomalies
Standardised Malaria Quartiles
Information can be used to initiate timely interventions

7. Tailored malaria forecast made December, for DJF 2004-05

8. MEWS offers opportunities for planning and preparedness …….
NMCP strengthen vector control measures and prepare emergency containers with mobile treatment centres
Seasonal climate forecasting science has developed considerably over the past few years. While the information from forecasts is inherently uncertain it may offer useful lead-times for preparation and response planning.
In this example from Botswana ‘state of the art’ forecast models have been tested against the 21 years of confirmed malaria incidence data and the results show the levels to which high malaria years can be predicted, as well as the levels to which low malaria years can be predicted.
The NMCP receives seasonal forecasts from the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre which have been verified by its National Meteorological Services. The forecasts offer significant lead-times for advanced preparation. An example of the way Botswana’s NMCP uses this information is to prepare a number of emergency containers in readiness for an epidemic.

9. Agriculture / Food Security
Greater Horn of Africa
Desired outcome:
Anticipate household's becoming food insecure
to allow pre-emptive interventions before
the situation becomes an emergency.

10. Partners
Information is being produced for
and/or in collaboration with:

11. Correlation between statistically corrected climate model output and
Good potential for climate forecasts:
Correlation between statistically corrected
climate model output and
observed rainfall, Oct-Dec

12. Need to “Translate” information to the same
Still one step is needed:
Results are expressed in “terms” that Decision Makers
do not use (e.g., Rainfall)
Need to “Translate” information to the same
terms that Decision Makers use
(crop yields, pasture availability, water in reservoirs, etc.)
cover
box

13. Predicting end-of-season crop conditions using the Water
Requirements Satisfaction Index
COF11 – Forecast Crop Conditions at
End of Season
Actual Crop Conditions at End of Season
“Translating” climate outlooks into food availability outlooks (e.g., crop yields, pastures, etc)
Better understandable and able to help make decisions (the outlooks directly quantify food needs)
Slide Courtesy G. Galu

14. How are households meeting
food requirements
% annual food requirements
food
insecure
1 is less vulnerable because can buy more, but very close to 100%
2 is very vulnerable to CV (drought = les maize = less food)

15. Somalia:
Food Economy Groups
(Food Security Assessment Unit)

16. (e.g., food insecurity hotspots in August 2004
Climate/Environmental Monitoring + Food Economy Groups:
Assess food insecurity hotspots
(e.g., food insecurity hotspots in August 2004
+ Seasonal Climate Outlook:

17. Food Security Outlooks (e.g., FSO for December made in August 2004)
FS Outlook for December
FS Reported in January

18. Summary
climate-related EWS have much to offer in managing risks: proactive v. reactive responses
room for further improvements in methodologies
for benefit to be realized, actions need to be tied to warnings
collaboration needed, both in research/development and in operational practice