1. Urban-Rural Continuum and Adaptation Research in SEA
Edsel E. Sajor
School of Environment, Resources and Development
Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand

2. Vulnerable places: urban and rural areas (1)
Mekong Basin: Floodplains, delta and basins
55 million people rely on the Mekong River for livelihoods and food; low social equity
Hydropower: alters hydrology, flow of the river; disturbs fisheries, agricultural cultivation and flood-pulse systems; highly political and interest-laden; power trade among countries
Flow: downstream-upstream issues due to diversion (competition between Thailand NE and VN Mekong Delta) – long droughts may intensify this
Floods: both positive (nourish wetlands [10% of basin], fisheries, biodiversity) and negative; flood management critical for VN & Cambodia during wet season and more cyclones can worsen flooding beyond adequate control
CC changes can potentially exacerbate existing social, political, economic, food security and ecological conditions

3. Vulnerable places: urban and rural areas (2)
Coastal, deltaic low lying areas
42 million people in Indonesia live less than 10 meters above the average sea level – located in many low lying urban areas vulnerable to flooding and storm surges (other examples: Jakarta; Semarang; Cavite, Philippines)
Huge migrant populations in fragile coastal areas; concentrations of informal slum settlements
Flood-prone deltaic areas used for multiple livelihoods and multiple water uses that lead to increasingly saline environments

4. Urban-Rural Population in Selected SEA Countries
Total Population
(in millions)
Urban Population (in millions)
% of Urban Population
% of Rural Population
Malaysia
26.572
18.414
69.3
30.7
Thailand
63.884
21.018
32.9
67.1
Indonesia
50.4
49.6
Philippines
87.960
56.470
64.2
35.8
Vietnam
87.375
23.853
27.3
72.7
Myanmar
48.798
15.566
31.9
68.1
Lao PDR
5.859
1.254
21.4
78.6
Cambodia
14.444
3.019
20.9
79.1
Total
45.2
54.8
All data in Source: ESCAP (2008) “Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2008”, United Nations Publication. Retrieved from ESCAP website at:

5. Urbanization in Five Selected SEA Countries
SEA is fast urbanizing: five countries (Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam) have an average of 47.5% urban population (236.5 millions) [2007].
% of Urban Population
1990
2000
2007
Malaysia
49.8
61.8
69.3
Thailand
29.4
31.1
32.9
Philippines
48.8
58.5
64.2
Indonesia
30.6
42.0
50.4
Vietnam
20.3
24.3
27.3
Total
32.4
41.2
47.5
Source: ESCAP (2008) “Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2008”, United Nations Publication. Retrieved from ESCAP website at:

6. Contribution to GDP of Selected Principal Cities in SEA
(% of GDP)
Source
Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)
12.4 % (2000)
Metro-Bangkok (Thailand)
44.0 % (2005)
Metro-Manila (Philippines)
37.0 % (2006)
Metro-Jakarta (Indonesia)
16.9 % (2005)
HCMC (Vietnam)
23.5 % (2006)

7. Implications of demographic and development shift to the urban and peri-urban
New sites of exposure to climatic hazards
Non-rural forms of social vulnerabilities, along side of rural forms
Expansion of spatial radius and the diversification of people’s autonomous (spontaneous) adaptation to CC in particular and to other non-climatic stressors in general
Limitation of existing local political-administrative jurisdictions in addressing fluid boundaries and dynamics of vulnerabilities and adaptation.

8. Sites and forms of new vulnerabilities resulting from urbanization in the context of CC
Massive mobility of labor and in-migration to big cities spawn land conversions and new informal settlements characterized by:
Unplanned, mixed land use in the urban fringe
Absence of basic urban infrastructure in place
Creation of densely populated peri-urban or rural-urban intermediate zones where local government administrative structures and authorities are weakest because conventional jurisdictions don’t fit. This creates an institutional weakness for public sector-led adaptation initiatives.

9. Linked rural and urban dynamics in adaptation and vulnerability
Urban-driven non-farm livelihoods, including migration, constitute rural households’ adaptive mechanisms to floods, droughts and other extreme climate events.
At the same time, migration-driven rapid growth of urban population creates new concentrations of poor and vulnerable households in cities who reside on fragile places and who are vulnerable to market-mediated scarcities and rising food prices that are not uncommonly related to climate-change shocks elsewhere.

10. Need to shift dominant understanding of adaptation to CC
Adaptation is understood primarily as a sector-centered, technical means with which to reduce/minimize CC impacts rather than a complex set of responses to factors that contribute to people’s vulnerability
‘Silo’, technical approach:
identify impact  identify vulnerability  plan adaptation
Sector-driven and sector-focused; national ministry mandate-driven (e.g., Ministry of Agriculture  develop crop-resilient varieties or improve irrigation facilities)
Alternative: people and their climate and non-climate related vulnerabilities should be at the center of analysis; there is also need to detect unevenness in people’s adaptive capacities

11. Unit of analysis of social vulnerability assessment
C.C. Context (Places/Hazards)
People & Livelihoods
Institutional Dimensions
Formal / Informal

12. Major knowledge gaps in research and policy
Climate change knowledge and planning does not connect between scales and between sectors, and scope the urban- rural continuum.
Understanding, mapping and monitoring changes in social vulnerability and adaptive capacity and strategies of ‘people on the move’ (their origins, destinations, and migration practices) and with multiple livelihood portfolio that cross urban and rural areas.
Social networks and informal institutions that enable people’s adaptive strategies and strengthen their resilience.
Social and gender equity in the adaptation context: winners and losers; differentiated strategies and benefits; issues of power and empowerment

13. 1: Mobility and credit as autonomous adaptation strategies and the systems that support them
Diversifying livelihoods through short- and long- term migration where women especially are increasingly on the move.
How climatic impacts amplify and affect migration
Systems and institutions that support mobility: transport, conduits for remittances (e.g., banks), informal trans-local and trans-national social networks, differentiated access to assets such as skills and capital
Credit: a critical strategy for strengthening resilience
Informal and formal credit institutions
Insurance and micro finance program for savings, the formation of savings and finance cooperatives and their differentiated outcomes

14. 2: Resilience to health-related impacts
Work so far: measures for water & sanitation in climate- induced disaster situations
Health systems to anticipate and address changing disease vectors such as active surveillance of breeding areas
Development of gender-responsive and accessible health systems that reach the poorest populations
Planning of water and sanitation systems and urban drainage to strengthen resilience to urban flooding and resulting health problems

15. 3: Governance of adaptation across scales and scoping an urban-rural continuum
Disconnect between sectors (environment, social development, economic) and between national and local scales that impede holistic planning and remain uninformed by autonomous adaptive strategies
Lack of effective intermediate level of governance where area-based integrative management of resources, systems and services have optimal extra-local impacts on strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity, and scoped at urban-rural continuum
Trans-boundary governance (i.e. local and international) of resources (e.g., water resources): constraints and enabling factors for developing equitable water allocation during drought and flooding periods
Serious capacity deficits at various levels of governance

16. AIT Research Project for Assessing and Monitoring Social Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in CC in SEA for Adaptation Planning (Urban-Rural)
Goals and Objectives of the Research Project
Document and analyze the effectiveness of planned and autonomous adaptation strategies by governments and affected communities
Derive good practical approaches and relevant indicators for assessing social vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the context of climate change in context of urbanizing rural regions and urban-rural interfaces
Develop a database and models for analyzing adaptation patterns that is scoped on an area-wide urban-rural continuum
Develop a decision support system for governments and policy makers to assess and develop adaptation strategies in selected area cases
Design a curriculum for climate change adaptation for training or special courses that could lead to developing a new field of study in climate change-related adaptation

17. Gaps Analysis Study on Climate Change Adaptation for DFID-IDRC
What are people and groups doing with respect to planned and autonomous adaptation to CC?
What are the major gaps in knowledge regarding CC adaptation?
76 Interviews in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Philippines, Vietnam, Lao PDR
3 Roundtable Consultations (Hanoi, November 2007; Manila, January 2008; Bangkok, May 2008)
Literature Review
Collaborative effort with two other report teams in South Asia and China

18. Thank you.