1. Decoupling resource use from wellbeing to support decarbonization
Prof. Mark Swilling
Stellenbosch University

3. International Resource Panel
UNEP’s International Resource Panel is conducting a series of assessments that seek to support sustainable use of resources and to reduce the impact of any resources that are being uses. In other words, it is finding ways to decoupling resource consumption and negative environmental impacts from economic development. The study presented here explores some of the challenges of decoupling, drawing of existing literature and case studies from four countries. In future work, it expects to identify ways of meeting these challenges and providing insights from additional country-level case studies.

5. Sustainable Development Goals on resources
SDG decoupling economic growth & natural resource use
SDG 2 (ending hunger – food)
SDG 6 (providing water and sanitation)
SDG 7 (ensuring access to energy)
SDG 11 (making sustainable resource efficient cities)
SDG 12 (promoting sustainable consumption and production)
SDG 13 (combating climate change)
SDG 14 (conserving the oceans)
SDG 15 (protecting and restoring terrestrial resources)

6. all 5 previous global growth periods were
able to access cheap primary resources
?????

8. Source: IRP 2016

9. Source: IRP 2016

10. Decoupling: resource & impact
Resource use
Human well-being
Economic activity (GDP)
Environmental impact
Resource decoupling
Impact decoupling

11. Source: IRP 2016

12. (Source: IRP)

13. (Murray and Kind, Nature January 2012)

14. Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
World Oil Exports
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

15. Source: REN 2106

16. Green Energy Impact
Green Energy Choices: The Benefits, Risks and Trade-offs of Low-Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
wind, PV, CSP, hydro and geothermal power generate GHG emissions over the life cycle of less than 50gCO2e per kWh
coal-fired power plants: gCO2e per kWh over the life cycle

17. But….
RE would result in an increased demand for steel, cement and copper in comparison to the continuation of the business-as-usual fossil fuel
plus increased use of rare earth metals such as indium and tellerium

18. The Economist changes its tune

19. 32%

22. Africa’s core challenge
Given that 80% of exports are primary resources, future development depends on re-investment of resource rents in:
human capital development
infrastructure
sustainability-oriented technological innovation
restoration of renewable resources - water, soils, biomass (incl biodiversity)
urbanization

24. Source: Africa Progress Panel report, 2015

25. Source: Africa Progress Panel report, 2015

26. Hydro
Geothermal
Solar
Wind

29. Rwanda

30. Quarzazate (wa-za-zat), Morrocco

33. Lagos BRT

34. Light rail in Addis

35. TiT
Tigray, Ethiopia

37. Suame Magazine, Ghana

38. National – SA case
“…secure ecologically sustainable development and use of natural resources while promoting justifiable economic and social development.” Section 24 (b) of the Constitution

39. (Source: Padayachee, 2011)

40. Resource constraints to growth: SA case
Water: 98% of available water allocated, yet growth rates coupled to water use rates
Coal use for energy estimated to grow by 60% by 2020, yet estimates of peak production are 2007 (Patzek & Croft 2010), 2012 (Mohr & Evans 2009), 2020 (Hartnady 2010)
Govt estimate of reserves: from 50 bt – 28 bt (2003); possibly only 10bt (Hartnady)

41. Critical Sub-Dependencies
Economic Growth
Energy
Oil 20%
Coal 70%
Other
10%

42. + 40% of all electricity consumed attributed to: mining, traction, basic chemicals/refined fuels, non-metallic mineral processing, basic iron & steel production, ferro-allows & non-ferrous metals

43. REI4P alternative to REFIT, launched in 2011
from nearly zero to over R190 b in 4 years – most rapid growth rate in the world, nearly 5% of GDP, major job creator
Managed by the IPP unit in DOE
4 bidding rounds: Dec ‘11, May ‘12, Nov ‘13, April/June 2015 (+ Nov)
June 2015: 6327 MW in 92 projects approved, 37 connected by end 2015 (1827MW)
R50 billion plus into socio-economic development

45. Can SA be more ambitious?

46. Can SA be more ambitious?
What are the cost implications of increasing RE from 10% (IRP) to 25% of total power
modelled life cycle cost per kWh of all energy generation technologies by 2030
whole grid approach (geographical, distribution capacity), hourly intervals for whole year
life cycle cost = capex + opex + fuel
Actual plant behaviour: ramp rate, turndown limit, availability (maintenance) & technology-specific characteristics

49. OUR CHALLENGE AS AFRICANS: WILL WE INVEST IN
THE CAPITAL INTENSIVE CENTRALISED
19TH/20TH TECHNOLOGIES AND MISS THE NEXT
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION LIKE WE MISSED THE
POST-WWII ECONOMIC BOOM?
OR WILL WE RECOGNISE THAT WE ARE
IN THE 21ST CENTURY AND RESPOND
APPROPRIATELY?
MANY AFRICAN COUNTRIES UNDERSTAND THIS
DO WE?