1. Case study: July 2016 Bihar and Assam floods
Web visualization of catchment rainfall evolution
(July 18-25th 2016)
Flooding in the Assam province near the village of Mayong (PTI)
Anomalous moisture flow into northeastern India in early July

2. Outline Recent severe July flooding Recent August floods
Gridded observed fields
Catchment-integrated fields
Time-series
Recent August floods
Forecast outlooks
Website snapshots

3. July 22 July 18 July 19 July 23 July 20 July 24 July 25 July 21
Sub-catchment rainfall as measured by satellite in the Ganges / Brahmaputra basin/
Flooding regions shown with red and purple boxes
July 19
July 23
July 19
July 20
July 24
July 20
July 25
July 21

4. Demonstration of web comparison tool:
European model forecasts (top) vs. observed satellite verification (bottom)
for 5-day accumulated rainfall (July )

5. All forecast models predicted elevated precipitation in the affected regions
European Model
US Model
Canadian Model
UK Model
Observed precipitation for the same period

6. Basins with elevated rainfall above or near the 90th percentile
during the flooding period
5 day-averaged Satellite Merged Precipitation is shown in red through July
Climatological percentiles (10th, 25th, 50th 75th 90th) are shown in grey and black in the background.
Gandak
Kamla-Balan
Ghagra
Bagmati
Kosi
Mahananda

7. Blue histogram shows the distribution of historical daily rainfall amounts from the week of July from Red lines show the daily rainfall totals from July 19-21st 2016 and how they compare with the historical distribution.

8. Basins with elevated rainfall above or near the 90th percentile
during the flooding period: Brahmaputra Basins
5 day-averaged Satellite Merged Precipitation is shown in red through July
Climatological percentiles (10th, 25th, 50th 75th 90th) are shown in grey and black in the background.
Jamuna
Middle Brahmaputra
Lohit
Upper
Brahmaputra
Manas
Lower Brahmaputra

9. U Bagmati Upper Ganges Lhasa-He Upper Brahmaputra Yarlung-Tsangpo
Ghagra
Ramganga
Gandak
Subansiri
Lohit
Kosi
Manas
Yamuna
Gomti
Jamuna
Lower
Brahmaputra
Middle
Brahmaputra
Sind
Mahananda
Middle
Ganges
Chambal
Lower Ganges
Tons
Betwa
Meghna
Ken
Sone
Kamla-Balan

10. Outline Recent severe July flooding Recent August floods
Gridded observed fields
Catchment-integrated fields
Time-series
Recent August floods
Forecast outlooks
Website snapshots

11. 5-day catchment rainfall through Aug 20-24.
Bagmati
Gandak
Lower Ganges
Kosi
Ghagra
Lohit

12. Outline Recent severe July flooding Recent August floods
Gridded observed fields
Catchment-integrated fields
Time-series
Recent August floods
Forecast outlooks
Website snapshots

13. ECMWF 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 8/29

14. ECMWF 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 8/30

15. ECMWF 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 8/31

16. ECMWF 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 9/01

17. ECMWF 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 9/02

18. Forecasts for the Kosi showing moderate precip levels forecast for the next 5 days (8/30-9/02)
ECMWF
Canada
UKMET
NCEP
Red lines show ensemble mean, black lines show 25th and 75th percentile ensemble members

19. Forecasts for the Bagmati
ECMWF
Canada
UKMET
NCEP
Red lines show ensemble mean, black lines show 25th and 75th percentile ensemble members

20. UKMET 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 8/30 showing particularly high precip levels forecast