1. Understanding and Mitigating the Impacts of Massive Relocations from Disasters
Vicki Bier
UW-Madison
I’m implicated, but hardly first author

2. 6/11/2018
Background
We have grown used to thinking of displaced persons as a developing-world problem
Hopefully, citizens in the developed world will rarely become political refugees (fleeing war or persecution):
But numerous types of events can lead to mass relocations
Examples can include:
Nuclear accidents (e.g., Fukushima, Chernobyl)
Natural disasters (e.g., Hurricane Katrina)
Terrorism (e.g., chemical or biological attacks)
Climate change (e.g., coastal flooding)
Moreover, displaced persons have fewer legal protections than political refugees (Rose, 2013)
Test

3. Magnitude of Relocations
6/11/2018
Magnitude of Relocations
Disasters in populated areas can easily result in the need to relocate a million people or more, for extended periods of time:
Leading to enormous societal disruption
Hurricane Katrina (2005):
Louisiana evacuated about 1.5 million people before landfall
Fukushima (2011) resulted in initial evacuation of about 134,000, followed by 354,000 more people four days later:
Total of nearly 500,000 people
Many people died (mainly elderly) due to the evacuation itself:
Quite possibly exceeding the eventual mortality due to radiation
Approximately 100,000 people still not able to return home
Test

4. Magnitude of Relocations
The Japanese accident could have been worse if the wind had been blowing in a less favorable direction
Similar accidents at U.S. plants in highly populated areas could result in the need to relocate more than a million people
Likelihood
Population relocated

5. Magnitude of Relocations
6/11/2018
Magnitude of Relocations
Chernobyl (1986):
Roughly 350,000 people were evacuated and resettled from areas of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine
Those relocated from the rural area surrounding Chernobyl to other regions often did not fare well in the ensuing decades
Hypothetical major anthrax attack in Seattle (Rose et al.):
300,000 people estimated to relocate (20% of population)
Underwater mortgages of $15 billion
70,000 foreclosures, affecting 200,000 people
Added “Plan” to the header
Test

6. Social and Economic Impacts
Population relocation can cause significant economic impacts (e.g., due to business interruption and loss of housing):
Even with neither extensive loss of life nor property damage
Based on Hurricane Katrina, Denning and McGhee (2013) estimated relocation cost to be about $50,000 per person:
Total cost of Katrina exceeded $100 billion
Silva et al. (2014) and Comerio (1998) find relocation and loss of housing to be one of the largest impacts of a disaster:
So number of people relocated is a good proxy for disruption
Ongoing lawsuits in Japan may eventually provide a basis for monetizing noneconomic aspects of social disruption:
E.g., “loss of homeland,” depression, and suicide

7. Economic Impacts
According to Risky Business Project (2014), climate change will cost the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars by 2050
$66 to $106 billion of property below sea level by 2050:
$238 billion to $507 billion by 2100
More than half U.S. population is in vulnerable coastal areas
Damage from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan is estimated to be 3-4% of annual GDP:
Rebuilding after 2010 and 2011 earthquakes in New Zealand is estimated to cost about 10% of GDP
Major relocations can be expected to have a smaller % impact on U.S. GDP, because the country is so large:
But impacts can still be large on a regional basis

8. Economic Impacts
Costs may vary greatly depending on the nature of the assets that are interdicted
For example, loss of a major tourist resort may be almost completely compensated by increases in tourism elsewhere:
While loss of housing or unique production facilities may cause significant costs until replacements can be built
Massive relocations may drive up housing prices in the areas to which people are displaced:
Causing significant hardship to low-income renters
Texas took in over 200,000 Katrina evacuees from Louisiana (35,000 in Houston alone):
Most stayed in emergency shelters, but 40% in hotels or homes
Town of Hammond (Louisiana) nearly doubled in size!

9. Research Needs
Better understanding of the impacts of massive relocations:
E.g., econometric analysis of past disasters
Computable general-equilibrium analysis for hypothetical risks
Determinants of “relocation trauma” and psychosocial stresses
Interventions to encourage:
Orderly and appropriate relocation before a disaster in areas under significant threat
Increased resilience and recovery after massive relocations