1. Coordination – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck
CariCOF Probabilistic Rainfall Outlook March-April-May 2015 and June-July-August 2015
CIMH
Coordination – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck
NMHS’s acknowledged for rainfall data delivery and participation in modelling efforts!
Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

2. MAM rainfall

3. CPT probabilistic FMA rainfall forecast
CCA experiments:
1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over October (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library)
2) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over October
3) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , October initialisation)
4) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic
5) Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library)
Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/trop. N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.

4. Experiment 1

5. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = January SST observations E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. Tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library]
Predictand = MAM rainfall for 464 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 4
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 4
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 4
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 417 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.115 Limited!

6. ROC area maps

7. CCA modes

8. Experiment 1 MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
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10. Experiment 2

11. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = January SST observations W and 0-30N
(i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library]
Predictand = MAM rainfall for 464 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 3
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 4
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 3
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 417 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.091 Very Limited!!

12. ROC area maps

13. CCA modes

14. Experiment 2 MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
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16. Experiment 3

17. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = MAM simulated SST E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, February initialisation]
Predictand = MAM rainfall for 464 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 3
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 2
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 417 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.117 Limited!

18. ROC area maps

19. CCA modes

20. MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 3
MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
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22. Experiment 4

23. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = MAM simulated SST 90-20W and 0-30N
(i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, February initialisation]
Predictand = MAM rainfall for 464 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 3
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 8
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 5
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 417 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.072 Very Limited!!

24. ROC area maps

25. CCA modes

26. MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 4
MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
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28. Experiment 5

29. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = MAM simulated rainfall W and 5S-35N
(i.e. broader Caribbean) [Source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble 24 – from IRI data library]
Predictand = MAM rainfall for 464 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2
X modes: max = 5; optimum = 5
Y modes: max = 5; optimum = 2
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 417 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.047 Limited!!

30. ROC area maps

31. CCA modes

32. MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 5
MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
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