1. IMPACT OF EU MEMBERSHIP ON TURKEY IN AGRICULTURE: A SECTOR MODEL APPROACH WITH MAXIMUM ENTROPY
Erol H. ÇAKMAK
H. Ozan ERUYGUR
Middle East Technical University, METU
Department of Economics
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

2. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
METHODOLOGY
Basic approach undertaken for calibration is Positive Mathematical Programming with Maximum Entropy following Paris and Howitt (1998) and, particularly, Heckelei and Britz (1999).
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

3. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
CHANGES
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

4. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
MODEL STRUCTURE
Model permits an integrated analysis of the crop and livestock production.
Single-period static optimization model.
Non-linear optimization, maximizing consumers' and producers' surplus.
Prices are endogeneous.
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

5. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
REGIONS
The production side of the model is disaggregated to four regions (Coastal, Central, Eastern, and GAP Region).
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

6. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
REGIONS
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

7. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
REGIONS
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

8. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
REGIONS
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

9. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
REGIONS
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

10. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
REGIONS
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

11. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
REGIONS
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

12. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
PRODUCTION AND TRADE
The crop and livestock sub-sectors are integrated endogenously, i.e. the livestock sub-sector gets inputs from crop production.
Foreign trade is allowed in raw and in raw equivalent form for processed products
Foreign trade is differentiated for EU, USA and ROW (rest of the world).
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

13. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
SCENARIOS
EU INtegration.
No compensatory area payments of EU,
EU intervention purchases,
No input subsidy
No deficiency payments,
Restrictions on tea, tobacco, hazelnut and sugar-beet.
CU in agricultural products.
WTO: 15 % cut in all tariffs of Turkey in 2015, no integration.
EU OUT
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

14. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
Assumptions to 2015
Population Growth: 1.4 percent per year
Population growth rate is determined from FAOSTAT estimates (total 15.2%).
Per capita income growth: 1.3 percent per year.
Linear trend of GDP per capita in 1987 prices.
Total growth 15.3 % until 2015, % per year.
210,000 ha increase in irrigated area: 150,000 ha in GAP region and 60,000 ha in rest of the Turkey.
Prices are adjusted to 2015 using FAPRI (2005) price projections and FAO export unit values data between
Yield Increases until 2015 included. The yield growths or decays are estimated using last 10 years data with GME taken last 45 years data estimates with OLS as support vector center points, i.e., a priori information. However, the simulations are performed following a “pessimist” approach, only the half of the estimated yield growths are used.
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

15. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
GENERAL RESULTS I
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

16. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
GENERAL RESULTS II
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

17. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
PRODUCTION VOLUMES
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

18. NET EXPORT PERFORMANCES FOR EU-OUT AND EU-CU
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

19. Export Performances of Fruits (& Nuts) and Vegetables
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier

20. EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier
Conclusions
Farmers suffer slightly from the EU membership, except the producers of some crops.
Increased consumption will be realized with a lower level of expenditure.
Livestock products will not competitive even at the EU prices. However, last 5 years’ increasing yield trends in livestock products shows better performances than before.
The increase to be realized in the net exports of crop products will be far from compensating the change in the net imports of livestock products.
Almost all imports of livestock products will be from the EU. The volume of trade with EU expands significantly.
Erol H. CAKMAK Ozan ERUYGUR
EU-MED Agpol May 2006, Montpellier