1. Time Distance – A New View of the Position of Europe
SICENTER
Ljubljana, Slovenia
Time is not on our side
Time Distance – A New View of the Position of Europe
Lisbon Agenda and Technomics – The Dramatic Implications for Professional Competence Building, Brussels, Fondation universitaire, October 5, 2006
Professor Pavle Sicherl
SICENTER and University of Ljubljana
Copyright © P. Sicherl All rights reserved

2. Example: A Comparison of European and US Economies Based on Time Distances
The fact that comparisons should be made in two dimensions has been verified by the world-wide media interest in my analysis for the EUROCHAMBRES Spring Business Forum. The static ratio of 1.41 does not catch much attention, while the time gap of about two decades obviously produced a different perception of reality. The same will be true for comparing within the EU.
Source: P. Sicherl, A Comparison of European and US Economies Based on Time Distances, EUROCHAMBRES, Brussels, March 2005

3. Static measure and time distance show two very different messages about importance of different components
Percentage differences between US and EU15 for employment rate, annual hours worked and productivity per hour are very similar. It seems as if the difficulty of catching up would be similar in the analysed components.
S-time-distances are very different, for productivity per hour only 5 years, while for employment rate and annual hours worked are about a quarter of a century. Policy analysis should expect different difficulties of catching up in these fields.

4. Comparisons over many indicators can show characteristic profiles across countries, regions, socio-economic groups, firms, etc.
Source: Interview with P.Sicherl - Semanario Economico, Lisbon, March 18, 2005

5. Source: P. Sicherl, A Comparison of European and US Economies Based on Time Distances, EUROCHAMBRES, Brussels, March 2005

6. The generic idea for many other applications of S-time-distance
S-time-distance adds a second dimension to comparing actual value with estimated value, forecast, budget, plan, target, etc. and to evaluating goodness-of-fit in regressions, models, forecasting and monitoring e5 S4 S5
Variable X e4 S2 e3 e2 S3 S1 e1

7. What would be deviations in two dimensions from the original Barcelona target if the new Lisbon 2 targets for EU15 countries would be reached?
Share of R&D in GDP (%)
Monitoring deviations of actual from path to target in two dimensions
Implied path 1 to target 3%
Actual EU15 and
new target 2
Percentage deviation of actual from path to target
S-time-distance deviation of actual from path to target (in years)
2000
1.94
0.0%
0.0 years
2001
2.05
1.98
-2.7%
0.5 years
2002
2.15
-7.5%
1.5 years
2003
2.26
1.97
-12.3%
2.6 years
2004
2.36
1.95
-17.5%
3.9 years
2005
2.47
2.06
-16.7%
2006
2.58
2.17
-15.9%
2007
2.68
2.28
-15.2%
3.8 years
2008
2.79
2.38
-14.5%
2009
2.89
2.49
-13.9%
2010
3.00
2.60
-13.3%
S-time-distance in years: - actual ahead of path to target, + actual behind the path to target

11. SUMMARY: Benefits of immediate operational uses of time distance
2.1 A new view in competitiveness issues, benchmarking, target setting and monitoring for economic, employment, social, R&D and environment indicators at the world, EU, country, regional, city, project, socio-economic groups, company, household and individual levels
2.2 A broader dynamic framework for interrelating Lisbon strategy issues of growth, efficiency, inequality and convergence
2.3 Enhanced semantics for policy analysis and public debate
2.4 Additional exploitation of databases and indicator systems
2.5 An excellent presentation and communication tool
among different levels of decision makers and interest groups
for describing of the situations, challenges and scenarios
for proactive discussion and presentation of policy alternatives to policy makers, media, the general public and mobilizing those participating in or being affected by the programs
for communicating the urgent need for change and reforms

12. Development is first and foremost a process of learning:
We should learn from others in and outside the EU – set high benchmarks
Time distance analysis presents an additional view, the gaps may be very different in static measures and in time, an important consideration for the Lisbon Strategy
Namely, greater efficiency leading to greater dynamics could also contribute to greater cohesion and to alleviating the time distance dimension of inequality
Knowledge based society needs reintegration of strategies of firms, social partners and policies in different fields (Lundvall 2000)