1. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
The Global Observing System and the evolving requirements for Numerical Weather Prediction and Reanalysis
E. Källén, ECMWF
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
THE STRENGTH OF A COMMON GOAL
ECMWF’s purpose is to develop a capability for medium-range weather forecasting and to provide such weather forecasts to the Member and Co- operating States
ECMWF is complementary to the National Meteorological Services and works with them in research, numerical weather predictions, supercomputing and training.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

3. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ECMWF forecast quality improvement Day when NH 500 hPa anomaly correlation drops below 60%
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

4. HRES headline score: 500 hPa height anomaly correlation
ERA-Interim
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

5. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
THE STRENGTH OF A COMMON GOAL
Forecast targets by 2025
Ensemble predictions of high impact weather up to two weeks ahead
Seamless approach, aiming towards predictions of large scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead and global-scale anomalies up to a year ahead
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

6. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
THE STRENGTH OF A COMMON GOAL
Goals
Research at frontiers of knowledge
Ensemble-based analyses and predictions that raise the international bar for quality and operational reliability
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

7. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
THE STRENGTH OF A COMMON GOAL
How do we achieve these goals?
Observations
High resolution ensemble
Earth-system
Scalability
Funding
People
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

8. TCo1279 total column liquid water (12h simulation at 9 km)
TCo1279 orography
(hydrostatic, with deep convection parametrization, 450s time-step, 240 Broadwell nodes, ~0.75s per timestep)

9. TCo7999 total column liquid water (12h simulation at 1.3 km)
The latest spectral transform model news …
TCo7999 orography
(hydrostatic, no deep convection parametrization, 120s time-step, 960 Broadwell nodes, ~10s per timestep)
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

10. Impact of ocean coupling and ocean observations
CERA-20C compared to extra experiments for geopotential height in MAM 2010
Ocean coupling in CERA improves atmospheric analysis and forecast (comparison with an atmospheric-only system)
Ocean observations in CERA improve atmospheric analysis and forecast (comparison with a CERA system withholding all ocean observations)

11. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Forecast sensitivity (FSO) of major observing systems in ECMWF operations
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

12. Assimilated microwave radiances
50 GHz, temperature sounding
118 GHz, temperature sounding
183 GHz, humidity sounding
Imager channels

13. Assimilated microwave radiances (17 instruments)
50 GHz, temperature sounding
118 GHz, temperature sounding
6 AMSU-A, 1 ATMS
(clear-sky)
1 MWHS-2
(all-sky)
183 GHz, humidity sounding
Imager channels
4 MHS, 2 SSMI/S, 1 MWHS-2 (all-sky)
1 ATMS, 1 MWHS (clear-sky)
1 SSMI/S, 1 AMSR-2, 1 GMI
(all-sky)

14. Radiosonde data coverage
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

15. Radiosonde data coverage
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

16. Aircraft wind data – quality and numbers Operational use
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

17. Aircraft wind data – quality and numbers Reanalysis use
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

18. Aircraft humidity data
Humidity quality good, general impact small, slightly positive impact for precipitation
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

19. Aeolus Doppler wind Lidar (launch 2017) (ESA Earth Explorer Mission)

20. Aeolus u-wind profile impacts
NWP impact experiment
Aeolus u-wind profile impacts
Horanyi et al., 2014

21. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Summary
ECMWF strategy goals:
High impact weather two weeks ahead
Regime transitions four weeks ahead
Global scale anomalies one year ahead
Earth System Observations
Ocean-atmosphere coupled assimilation showing potential
Microwave radiances primary observation source
Better use of conventional observations
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts