1. Mining a Mirage Buenos Aires, September 2016
The Future of Extractive Industries in LAC and the Role of STI

2. 2 separate discussions around mining
Creation of jobs
Technology transfer
Health & safety
Increased productivity
Local content
Business opportunities
Automation
Environment

3. Shared value paradigm
Source: Anglo American (2015), BP (2015)

4. Past and anticipated productivity gains

5. Potential impacts of technology on employment
1.Autonomous Haul Trucks and Loaders
2. Autonomous Long Distance Haul-Trains
3.Tele-remote Ship-Loaders
4.Semi-autonomous Crushers/Shovel Swings/Rock Breakers
5.Automated Drilling Systems
6.Automated Dragline/Long-wall Plough and Shearers/Earth Moving Systems
7.Geographic Information Systems and GPS
8.Autonomous Equipment Monitoring
9.Programmable Logic Controllers
10.Control Systems

6. What will determine technology role-out?
Cost of labor
Labor skills
Search for higher safety
Policy instruments to mitigate unemployment
Union & government resistance

7. High-Income OECD Country
Lower-middle-income Country

8. Employment scenarios (direct & indirect)
High-Income OECD Country
Lower-Middle-Income Country
3,388
2,372
1,694
1,016
5,100
3,570
2,550
1,530 0%
30%
50%
70%

9. Impacts of automation on GDP
High-Income OECD Country
Lower-Middle-Income Country

10. GDP impacts with multipliers

11. Impacts of automation on revenues
High-Income OECD Country
Lower-Middle-Income Country

12. Conclusions
Host countries at risk of reduced socioeconomic benefits from mining, particularly:
At the local local level
If highly reliant on personal income taxes for revenue generation
If the country supplies low-tech goods and services to the mining industry
The impacts will be felt at the national level in countries which are highly reliant on the extractives sector.
Countries with a ’skill gap’ will find it harder at filling the high-tech job and procurement opportunities created by automation.

13. Will technology change lead to a reweighting of the shared-value paradigm?

14. Thank You! Nicolas Maennling www.ccsi.columbia.edu