1. Bigger Hurricanes: Bigger Hurricanes: A Consequence A Consequence of
Climate Change?
Bigger Hurricanes:
A Consequence of
Climate Change?
Ruth Curry
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Ruth Curry
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

2. Major Factors in Tropical Storm Activity:
Tropical Storm frequency and intensity are predicted to rise with the global thermometer
Major Factors in Tropical Storm Activity:
ENSO pattern in Pacific
Tropical Stratospheric Winds (QBO)
Upper Ocean Heat Content
SST are running 1-2 degC
above normal (100-yr record)
in Atlantic, Indian and W.Pacific
Hurricane Ivan Sept. 13, 2004

3. Above normal hurricane season forecast for 2004
Tuesday, June 1, 2004 Posted: 1:05 PM EDT (1705 GMT)
(CNN) -- U.S. hurricane forecasters Monday predicted a busy 2004 Atlantic hurricane season based on a trend of above-normal activity during seven of the last nine seasons.
Above-normal hurricane season forecast
Tuesday, June 1, 2004 Posted: 1:05 PM EDT (1705 GMT)
(CNN) -- U.S. hurricane forecasters Monday predicted a busy 2004 Atlantic hurricane season based on a trend of above-normal activity during seven of the last nine seasons.
Above normal hurricane season forecast for 2004
The 2004 season is currently running 175% above the 50-year average in the Atlantic. Last spring saw the first ever recorded Hurricane in the South Atlantic.

4. 29 June 2004 Pacific Typhoons
The Pacific is experiencing unprecedented number and intensity of typhoons.

5. -Isamu Yagai, Japan Meteorological Agency
Japan's Record 7th Typhoon; The Death Toll Is at Least 31
By JAMES BROOKE NY Times: September 9, 2004
"This year, the number of typhoons has been unusually big," Mobutaka Mannoji, director of the typhoon center, said Wednesday in an interview. He attributed the increase to surface water temperatures in the Pacific that have been nearly two degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal. Japan also has had an unusually hot summer this year, with temperatures in Tokyo remaining above 86 degrees Fahrenheit for a 41-day period that ended in mid-August.
"I can conclude there will be more typhoon activities, either in terms of more numbers or in larger sizes," he said, drawing on his interpretation of 110 years of Japanese temperature and rainfall data. "I think the same thing is happening with regards to the hurricanes in the U.S.“
-Isamu Yagai, Japan Meteorological Agency
Rising greenhouse gas concentrations and the warmest ocean temperatures in the 100 year record -- in conjunction with other favorable factors – are implicated in the recent trend of increased tropical storm activity.

6. Sea Surface Temperatures on Sept 14 2004

7. In the last half of the 20th century, it is clear that the world oceans are heating up.
The oceans have absorbed about 30 times more heat than the atmosphere since 1955
Oceans x 1022 J
Atmosphere x 1021 J
Levitus et al. Science, 2000

8. Carbon Dioxide levels are a likely contributor to global warming.
Present CO2: 379 ppmv

9. Greenhouse Gas levels in the atmosphere and planetary surface temperatures are inextricably linked
CarbonDioxide
Methane

10. Global Climate Change is not just about temperature
It is expected that the planetary water cycle – Evaporation/Condensation/Precipitation and Freezing/Melting – will be altered as a result of global warming.
There is ample evidence of it already happening…

11. Salinity distributions have been changing in the last few decades
Low latitude surface waters have become markedly more saline
Water masses formed at high latitudes have become fresher

12. Summer Arctic Sea Ice
1979
2000
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

13. Greenland is melting
NY Times June 8, 2004

14. Precipitation patterns are changing on global scales…

15. Increased river discharge
Increased precipitation
is perhaps the dominant
factor elevating continental
runoff into the Arctic basins
which is contributing to
salinity decreases in the
N. Atlantic and N. Pacific.

17. IPCC temperature projections
Globally, temperatures are projected to rise an additional
2 – 5°C in the 21st Century
We are here
From IPCC Report
Climate Change 2001:
The Scientific Basis

18. What should be done about Global Warming and impending Climate Change?
A scientist’s perspective……
What should be done about Global Warming and impending Climate Change?
Curb fossil fuel emissions
Increase funding for Climate Research and Observing programs
Invest in development of predictive climate models.