1. Where do Fish Larvae Go when Spawned in the ABT?
CariCOOS – CFMC
Where do Fish Larvae Go when Spawned in the ABT?
August 24, 2016
CFMC 157th Meeting, San Juan PR
Jorge E. Capella, Miguel Canals, Estefanía Quiñones,
Fabian Garcia and Carlos Sosa

3. What did we do?
AMSEAS and ROMS model output and HF Radar observations (velocity fields) were used to determine the path of dispersal (or particle trajectories) of large numbers of virtual eggs and early larvae from the three marine protected areas (ABT MPAs) off the west coast of Puerto Rico, and from the spawning aggregation region at La Parguera.
Connectivity Sites
 Source - Recruitment
Bajo de Sico [A]
BdS
Tourmaline Bank [B]
TBa
Abrir La Sierra [C]
ALS
La Parguera [D]
LPa
 Recruitment
Los Rabos - Aguadilla
LRa
Pichincho
Pin
Desecheo
Des
Mona
LMo
Cabo Rojo
CRo
Guanica
Gca
Guayanilla
Gya
Virtual particles were released at the four source locations from December 1, 2014 to May 31, 205, which covers the spawning season for many commercially important snapper and grouper species including the red hind (Epinephelus guttatus) and the mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis).
Surface drifter and ADCP field validation of model and radar time series were performed.

4. Some Specifications Particle = egg and early larvae
Planktonic stages only (non swimming, non feeding)
14-day virtual particle trajectories
Floating particles (those from many targeted species actually do)
Target species are deemed to be commercially important, like groupers and snappers
Focus on MPA regional scales, not on small scales
End results expressed as connectivity matrices
"All models are wrong but some are useful“, George Box (1978)

5. Previous Work Examples

6. Visualization of a 30-day simulated coral spawning event based on NOAA’s Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) ocean current data starting on August 21, 2011.
Schill SR, Raber GT, Roberts JJ, Treml EA, Brenner J, et al. (2015) No Reef Is an Island: Integrating Coral Reef Connectivity Data into the Design of Regional-Scale Marine Protected Area Networks. PLoS ONE 10(12): e doi: /journal.pone

7. Something about Currents in the Bajo de Sico
Strong semidiurnal tidal flows
Northward mean
Same general pattern at AlS and TBa

8. AMSEAS – ROMS Models
CariCOOS AMSEAS Movie
CariCOOS ROMS Movie

9. CariCOOS HFR Network
CariCOOS HFR

10. Drifter Trajectories and Validation vs. HFR
Full area Mona Passage

11. Particle Tracking Methods
HFR – Random Flight
ROMS – LTRANS
AMSEAS – Local Code
All use Matlab as front end
Particles released continuously at 1-hour intervals from 12/1/14 to 5/31/15
Thousands of virtual trajectories per method
Particles released during observed spawning aggregations (Dr. Scharer provided this information)
Graphical PTM is being developed by F. Garcia

12. AMSEAS Particle Tracking

13. AMSEAS Particle Tracking

14. ROMS Particle Tracking

15. AMSEAS Particle Tracking

16. AMSEAS Particle Tracking

17. Mesoscale Eddies in the Caribbean Sea
Geostrophic Flow - SSHA

18. Particle Densities - AMSEAS

19. Connectivity Matrices - AMSEAS

20. Particle Densities TBa – Spawning - AMSEAS

21. Particle Densities BdS – Spawning - AMSEAS

22. Particle Densities AlS – Spawning - ROMS

23. Preliminary Observations
Consistent particle advection patterns from the three velocity fields: ROMS, AMSEAS and HFR
General meridional particle advection along the west coast of PR, with a northward mean
Westward particle advection along the south-southwest shelf and northwards into the Mona Passage
Westward particle advection upon exiting the Mona Passage
Non-deterministic mesoscale eddies in the Caribbean Sea, particularly anticyclonic eddies, may impede local recruitment from spawning aggregations in the Mona Passage
The three west coast MPAs (ABT) are strongly connected among themselves and with other known fishing grounds in the Mona Passage

24. Questions