1. Organic Alberta Stakeholder Teleconference -- May 10, 2017
Understanding Organic Grain Supply and Demand:  
The Current Situation
Stuart McMillan - M. Sc, P. Ag

2. Caveat
Not a real economist Pie charts of my favorite bars and bar charts of my favorite pies

4. Three Factors
Market Demand
Production Supply
Imports/Exports

6. There remains significant uptapped demand
Existing organic end-users have the capacity to ramp up their production.

7. Canadian Organic Acreage
Thank COTA for the following two slides. For 2016 we are likely hitting the 2.5 mil acre number. Everyone I talked to and what I saw in 2016 would support additional acres

8. The 2016 count of U.S. certified organic farms and businesses reflects a 13 percent increase between the end of 2015 and 2016, continuing the trend of double digit growth in the organic sector. The number of certified operations has increased since the count began in 2002 and this is the highest growth rate since 2008.

9. CDN organic acreage also includes existing organic operations growing larger
Some buyers have said they don’t feel there has been as large of an increase in acreage and producers relative to requests
More organic operations regardless

10. For 2016 likely back around $15, so yes a significant drop, but still a 200% premium to conventional prices

11. Largely a North American market, minimal import & exports
2016 – no imports, and greater exports
Largest old crop carry out – 10 times more than average
Strictly a supply issue – no reduction in food demand, possible reduction in feed demand

12. Role of Imports Canadian Data difficult to acquire or non-existent.
No HS Codes specific for organic in Canada
US has started gathering GATS data
Imports & Exports – value and volume

15. Typically Canada has been a minor player in US Corn market
How cares if farmers in W Canada don’t grow corn

16. April USDA Organic Price Report

20. “We have gone through periods like this where some crops have not been profitable in the past and farmers, because they have to produce or plant something on that land, the best of those options sort of gets planted and I think this is probably something that’s going to happen this year for cereal crops because there is really no cereal crop that stands out as a really big money-maker,”
May 4, 17, Bruce Burnett on the CO market outlook.