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Huntington Wealth Advisors Spring 2011 Economic Update

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Presentation on theme: "Huntington Wealth Advisors Spring 2011 Economic Update"— Presentation transcript:

1 Huntington Wealth Advisors Spring 2011 Economic Update

2 Lest we forget: “The one who does not remember history is bound to live through it again.”* *Jorge Agustín Nicolás Ruiz de Santayana y Borrás

3 The Economy Leading Indicator Index
Shaded areas represent recessionary periods. *Indicates Last Observation. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Board; Bureau of the Census • Copyright © 2011 Crandall, Pierce & Company Leading Indicator Index Ratio Coincident to Lagging Indicators Industrial Production Index Gross Domestic Product *2/11 Index 2007=100 Percent Change from Previous Year Index 2004=100 The Economy Copyright © 2011 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • Internet: GL6 CCCI Inventory / Sales Ratio Manufacturers *1/11 *4Q/10 Billions of 2005 Dollars Real Gross Domestic Product Ratio Billions of Dollars 60 70 80 90 100 110 -10 -5 5 10 15 20 92 94 96 98 102 104 120 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 15000 17000 8000 10000 12000 14000 -4 -2 2 4 6 8 The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission. 11 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 87 85

4 Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Mining 5.4%* Copyright © 2011 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • Internet: -CCCI- Data Released 4/15/11; March 2011 *Last Observations March Sources: Federal Reserve Board; Copyright © 2011 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved All data is seasonally adjusted. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization 296E Percent of Capacity Manufacturing Nondurable -10 -5 5 10 77.9%* 13.4%* Year to Year Percentage Change 70 75 80 85 90 65 -20 -15 15 Final Products & Nonindustrial Supplies Materials Utilities Capacity Utilization by Industry Groups Industrial Production by Market Groups Total Durable Consumer Goods Business Equipment 5.9%* 5.7%* 4.0%* 6.1%* 7.1%* 11.3%* 3.0%* 1.5%* 77.4%* 75.8%* 73.9%* 88.1%* 79.7%* 20 60 95 Construction Supplies 7.7%* The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission. 96 99 02 05 08 11 93 87

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7 Consumer Trends Index of Consumer Sentiment Real Retail Sales
Copyright © 2011 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • Internet: GL5 CCCI Shaded areas represent recessionary periods. *Indicates Last Observation. Sources: Bureau of the Census; Federal Reserve Board; Bureau of Economic Analysis; University of Michigan • Copyright © 2011 Crandall, Pierce & Company Consumer Trends Index of Consumer Sentiment Real Retail Sales Consumer Installment Debt as a % New Housing Units Started & Automobile & Light Truck Retail Sales Real Disposable Personal Income & of Disposable Personal Income Index of New Housing Permits Personal Savings *3/11 *2/11 *1/11 Index 1st Quarter 1966=100 Housing Starts, Thousands of Units Total, Millions of Units Domestic, Millions of Units Billions of Dollars Percent Change from Previous Year Percent Personal Savings as a Percent of D.P.I. Real D.P.I, % Change-Previous Year Housing Permits, Thousands of Permits 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 -2 2 4 6 17 19 21 23 25 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 130 140 150 160 170 -10 -5 5 15 The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission. 11 89 91 93 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 87

8 Net Credit Card Charge-Off Rates and Personal Bankruptcy Filings
Copyright © 2011 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • Internet: -CCXCVIII- 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 Net Charge-Off Rates (Annualized) Number of Bankruptcy Filings (Trailing 12 Months, In Thousands) Sources: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; Administrative Office of the United States Courts; Commercial Bank Call Reports ; Copyright © 2011 Crandall, Pierce & Company 288S Net Credit Card Charge-Off Rates and Personal Bankruptcy Filings scale left Personal Bankruptcy Filings scale right Net Credit Card Charge-Off Rates are credit card loans charged off (removed from the balance sheet due to uncollectibility), less amounts recovered that were previously charged off, as a percent of total credit card loans outstanding. Note: The year ending 3rd Quarter 2010 produced 1,536,756 personal bankruptcies. 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1986 The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission.

9 Payroll Growth by Sector
Total 100% Goods-Producing 13.7% Manufacturing 65.0% Durable 61.9% Nondurable 38.1% Construction 30.7% Mining and Logging 4.3% Service-Providing 86.3% Wholesale Trade 4.9% Retail Trade 12.9% Transportation and Warehousing 3.8% Utilities 0.5% Information 2.4% Financial Activities 6.7% Professional and Business Services 15.1% Education and Health Services 17.6% Leisure and Hospitality 11.7% Other Services 4.8% Government 19.6% Wholesale & Retail Trade Copyright © 2011 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved. • West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • Internet: -CCCII- 216E Payroll Growth by Sector Data Released 5/6/11; April 2011 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 2 4 Year to Year Percentage Change Durable & Nondurable Goods -15 -5 5 10 15 Mining & Logging Total Payrolls* 6 8 12 14 Transportation/Warehousing & Utilities Leisure and Hospitality & Other Services Transportation/Warehousing Wholesale Contribution By Secto r Total Payrolls Goods-Producing* Payrolls: Measured By Employees On Nonfarm Payrolls. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics • Copyright © 2011 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved. *Data Expressed in Thousands 2005 2008 2011 1999 Nonfarm Payrolls Service-Providing* Information & Financial Activities Financial Activities & Education and Health Services Professional and Business Education and Health Leisure and Hospitality Retail 2002 March Change April 130, ,026 1996 Change April 112, ,031 The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission. 17, ,997 05 08 11 99 02 96

10 Employment Cost Index Data Released 1/28/11; 4th Quarter 2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Manufacturing *Last Observations 4th Quarter 2010 1.7%* Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Copyright © 2011 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved. 2.0%* Copyright © 2011 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • Internet: Year to Year Percentage Change State & Local Government Data Released 1/28/11; 4th Quarter 2010 Employment Cost Index Benefit Costs Wages and Salaries Total Compensation 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Total Civilian Total Private 10 1.8%* 1.6%* 1.2%* 2.9%* Goods Producing Service Producing 2.3%* 1.9%* 1.5%* 4.0%* 2.5%* 2.8%* 1.0%* Construction 5.0%* -CCXCIX- 299C 0.7%* The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission. 2004 2006 2008 2010 2002

11 Inflation Outlook Producer Price Index Ratio of Consumer Prices to
Copyright © 2011 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • Internet: Shaded areas represent recessionary periods. *Indicates Last Observation. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics • Copyright © 2011 Crandall, Pierce & Company. • All rights reserved. Inflation Outlook Index =100 Producer Price Index Ratio of Consumer Prices to Producer Prices Consumer Price Index for Food Producer Price Index Finished Goods *2/11 GL3 CCC Consumer Price Index Percent Change from Previous Year Consumer Price Index for Energy Index 1982=100 Ratio 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 -2 2 4 6 8 -15 -10 -5 5 10 15 20 100 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 125 150 175 225 250 275 300 -20 40 60 110 130 170 190 210 230 The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission. 11 89 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 91 87 85

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13 Productivity & Inflation
Output per Hour Copyright © 2011 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • Internet: Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics • Copyright © 2011 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved. Shaded areas represent recessionary periods. -4 -2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Productivity & Inflation Consumer Price Index Year to Year Percentage Change Last Obs. February 2011 2C CCC Business Sector, YTY % Change Last Obs. IV Quarter 2010 Unit Labor Cost The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission. 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 73 77 75 71 69 67 65 63

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16 On Business Horizons: “A man's feet must be planted in his country, but his eyes should survey the world.” * *Jorge Agustín Nicolás Ruiz de Santayana y Borrás

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18 A Declining Dollar Makes U.S. Goods More Attractive
Copyright © 2011 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • Internet: Net Exports of Goods and Services Billions of 2005 Dollars Scale Right Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Board • Copyright © 2011 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved. Shaded areas represent recessionary periods. 10E 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 -750 -700 -650 -600 -550 -500 -450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 50 A Declining Dollar Makes U.S. Goods More Attractive -397.7 35.5 -756.5 4Q/10 3Q/80 3Q/06 Latest Maximum Minimum Value Date -CCCI- U.S. Dollar Exchange Value Scale Left 70.83 143.91 70.34 Mar. '11 Mar. '85 Mar. '08 March 1973=100, Led One Year, Inverted Scale 86 88 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 12 10 84 82 78 76 The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission. 74

19 United States Merchandise Trade
7.0 121.3 -34.2 -111.5 -339.5 -13.6 -214.5 33.2 71.8 220.3 507.1 229.6 496.3 68.2 214.5 -25.9 Foods, Feeds, and Beverages Industrial Supplies and Materials, Less Petroleum and Products Capital Goods, Less Automotive Automotive Vehicles, Engines, and Parts C onsumer Goods, Less Automotive O ther P etroleum and Products R esidual Copyright © 2011 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • Internet: Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Copyright © 2011 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved Note: All Data Expressed in Billions of 2005 Dollars 260E -CCCII- United States Merchandise Trade By End Use Category In Constant Dollars Net Exports: Consumer Goods, Less Automotive -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 100 -40 -20 20 40 60 80 120 140 -250 -150 -50 Billions of 2005 Dollars Imports of Petroleum and Products Net Exports Net Exports: Less Petroleum and Products Net Exports: Automotive Vehicles, Engines, and Parts 175 200 225 250 275 300 Exports Imports Balance First Quarter 2011 Total 1230.1 1781.9 -551.8 Net Exports: Other Net Exports: Industrial Supplies and Materials, Net Exports: Capital Goods, Net Exports: Foods, Feeds, and Beverages 90 02 93 96 99 08 05 11 78.8 341.6 472.9 118.1 156.8 54.6 7.3 The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission. 87

20 United States Petroleum Summary
Sources: Energy Information Administration; Dow Jones & Company; • Copyright © 2011 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved. Copyright © 2011 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • Internet: -CCCI- United States Petroleum Summary $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 Weekly Prices West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures Settle Price Dollars Per Barrel, Scale Left $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% Crude Oil by Source Imports as a Percentage of Total Crude Oil 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 Monthly Consumption - Millions of Barrels Total Stocks - Millions of Barrels Finished Motor Gasoline Crude Oil Last Observations January 2011 U.S. Field Production as a 50 100 Last Observations Week Ending 4/15/11 (Excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserve) 405S Retail Gasoline Retail Price Dollars Per Gallon, Scale Right Heating Oil Futures Price The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission. 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

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