1. Children and Youth At Risk Profile - Gisborne/Wairoa Districts
This report has been copied and adapted from a similar report created by Rebecca Lepa, Ministry of Education, BOP Waiariki
Purpose
Awareness of the risk profile of children and youth living in different areas of Gisborne/Wairoa can be used to help inform timelier and better targeted services.
One useful way of targeting services is to focus on specific areas with higher concentrations of at-risk children and youth.
However, there is a tension between targeting services at areas where a high proportion of children and youth are at risk and areas where larger numbers of at-risk children and youth live.
Distribution of children with 2+ Risk Indicators
Top 10 by Percentage: 0-5 years
Top 10 by Percentage: 6-14 years
Census Area Unit
Total Pop (0-5 years)
2+ Risk Indicator %
Total Pop
(6-14 years)
2+ Risk Indicators
Ruatoria
171 69
40% 99 45
45%
Gisborne Airport
450
180
Outer Kaiti
324
144
44%
465
177
38%
345
138
Kaiti South
384
132
34%
Tamarau
330
477
156
33%
378
141
37%
Wairoa
663
213
32%
480
East Cape
339
102
30%
Te Karaka 57 18
Tolaga Bay
123 33
27%
Te Hapara
447
129
29%
612
159
26% 48
28%
Nuhaka 36 9
25%
Mangapapa
498
Top 10 by Number: 0-5 years
Top 10 by Number: 6-14 years
(0-5 years)
Total Pop (6-14 years)
636
22%
Gisborne Central
267 60
381 81
21%
Children at risk (0-14 years)
Four key risk indicators:
1. Having a CYF finding of abuse or neglect
2. Being mostly supported by benefits since birth (more than 75% of their lifetime)
3. Having a parent with a prison or community sentence
4. Having a mother with no formal qualifications.
Projected Outcomes
Children who have these indicators are more likely to leave school with no qualifications, to spend time on a benefit, and to receive a prison or community sentence.
0-5 years
6-14 years
The results in this report are not official statistics, they have been created for research purposes from the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) managed by Statistics New Zealand.

2. Distribution of youth aged 15-19 with at least 1 Risk Indicator \
Youth at risk (15-19 years)
Five risk groups (See below for detailed criteria for each group):
1. Teenage boys with Youth Justice or Corrections history
2. Teenagers with health, disability issues or special needs
3. Teenage girls supported by benefits
4. Mental health service users with stand-down or CYF history
5. Experienced significant childhood disadvantage.
Number and Percentage in at risk Youth population aged years
Distribution of youth aged with at least 1 Risk Indicator \
Projected Outcomes
Youth who have these indicators are less likely to achieve NCEA level 2 or higher qualifications and are more likely to spend time on a benefit, to use mental health and addiction services
Top 10 by Percentage: years
Census Area Unit
Total Pop
(15-19 years)
At least 1 Risk Indicator %
Outer Kaiti
246 87
35%
Tamarau
249
Gisborne Airport
240 75
31%
Kaiti South 69
29%
Gisborne Central
207 57
28%
Tolaga Bay 15
26%
Patutahi 36 9
25%
Wairoa
333 81
24%
Te Hapara
342 78
23%
Mangapapa
393 84
21%
Top 10 by Number: years
East Cape
186 33
18%
Whataupoko
300 24 8%
Teenage boys with Youth Justice or Corrections history
Teenagers with health, disability issues or special needs
Teenage girls supported by benefits
Mental health service users with stand-down or CYF history
Experienced significant childhood disadvantage
In any at risk group
Total Pop
(15-19 years)
Number %
Gisborne
261
7.2% 90
2.5% 93
2.6%
237
6.5%
327
9.0%
720
19.9%
3,624
Wairoa 45
7.7% 15
4,212
1.5%
10,926
3.8% 51
8.8%
114
19.6%
582 NZ
12,801
4.4%
5,772
2.0% 27
4.6%
16,128
5.5%
36,516
12.6%
289,539
15-19 years
The results in this report are not official statistics, they have been created for research purposes from the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) managed by Statistics New Zealand.

3. At least 1 Risk Indicator
Appendix : Children and youth At Risk by Census Area Unit (CAU) for Gisborne and Wairoa Districts
NB CAUs with less than 10 children or youth at risk are not shown
Data
All data presented in this report has been sourced directly via the Social Investments Insights tool developed Statistics New Zealand and New Zealand Treasury (see
The Social Investments Insights tool uses the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI), which brings together information from a wide range of government departments. Records are linked using name and date of birth. The data are anonymised and used only for research purposes. See
The main analysis is a birth cohort analysis, which focuses on those born between 1 July 1990 and 30 June 1991, who can be observed through to age 21 in the data set.
Caveats
The data has a number of limitations and caveats:
The scope of the data is limited by the nature and breadth of the information collected in agencies’ administrative systems and included in the IDI. For example, the administrative data provides only a partial picture of childhood
adversity, service use and service costs.
.The population coverage errors, linkage errors and biases present mean that the results are indicative only, and not highly accurate estimates.
The methods used to estimate future outcomes and costs are designed to provide a comparative picture of future outcomes and costs for different population subgroups, but they have some significant limitations. These estimates should be viewed as indicative, and not as forecasts of the actual outcomes and costs that will be incurred in the future.
Geographical location is derived from administrative information held by government agencies. In some cases this data may be inaccurate or out of date, and individuals may be allocated to areas in which they don’t reside as a result.
While the results highlight the power of using integrated administrative data in new and innovative ways, some of the methods are exploratory in nature, and as such the results should be considered as preliminary, requiring further testing and development over time.
Census Area Unit
Total Pop (0-5 years)
2+ Risk Indicators %
Wairoa
480
177
37%
Outer Kaiti
324
144
44%
Kaiti South
378
141
Gisborne Airport
345
138
40%
Mangapapa
498
132
27%
Tamarau
330
Te Hapara
447
129
29%
Gisborne Central
267 60
22%
East Cape
171 48
28%
Ruatoria 99 45
45%
Whataupoko
312 33
11%
Kaiti North
180 18
10%
Te Karaka 57
32%
Tolaga Bay 69
26%
Tarndale-Rakauroa
120 15
13%
Riverdale 12
Census Area Unit
Total Pop
(6-14 years)
2+ Risk Indicators %
Wairoa
663
213
32%
Gisborne Airport
450
180
40%
Outer Kaiti
465
177
38%
Te Hapara
612
159
26%
Tamarau
477
156
33%
Mangapapa
636
138
22%
Kaiti South
384
132
34%
East Cape
339
102
30%
Gisborne Central
381 81
21%
Ruatoria
171 69
Whataupoko
456 39 9%
Kaiti North
270 33
12%
Tiniroto
288
11%
Tolaga Bay
123
27%
Riverdale
243 24
10%
Te Karaka
111
Wharekaka
231
Tarndale-Rakauroa
204 18
Census Area Unit
Total Pop
(15-19 years)
At least 1 Risk Indicator %
Outer Kaiti
246 87
35%
Tamarau
249
Mangapapa
393 84
21%
Wairoa
333 81
24%
Te Hapara
342 78
23%
Gisborne Airport
240 75
31%
Kaiti South 69
29%
Gisborne Central
207 57
28%
East Cape
186 33
18%
Whataupoko
300 24 8%
Riverdale
156 15
10%
Tolaga Bay
26%
Wharekaka
150
Kaiti North
135 12 9%
Ruatoria 60
20%
Tarndale-Rakauroa
The results in this report are not official statistics, they have been created for research purposes from the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) managed by Statistics New Zealand.