1. Recommended Strategy for an Integrated National Approach to EE
Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Energy
6 September 2012

2. Energy Efficiency How are we Doing?
Score Card
SCORE
Fact Base - Lacking
Objectives - Arbitrary
Strategy – None
Implementation – Ad - Hoc

3. Contents
Status:
Fact Base
Objectives
Strategy
Implementation
Solution

4. Growth: Economic & Jobs Requires more energy
Source: ExxonMobil Outlook to 2040

5. Improved Standard of Living - Requires more energy
Source: ExxonMobil Outlook to 2040

6. Changing Energy Mix

7. RSA - Usage per sector Energy & Demand
Sources: Frost & Sullivan & Eskom

8. Myth Busting - “Industry is inefficient due to low electricity prices”
Myth Busting - “Industry is inefficient due to low electricity prices”. Industry have for a long time been working hard to reduce their energy intensity & will continue to do so

9. Cost viz Potential: Setting Priorities

10. Need a Framework for Analysing Opportunity Specific Barriers

11. An example of “Addressing the barriers” in High Income Housing

12. 5
Must Determine Potential: Probable, Doable & Most Likely Without serious economic Impact
BACK UP 12

13. Residential and commercial: Potential savings levers and initiatives Without serious economic Impact

14. Bottom Up Fact Base Required Detail required for residential sector30 28
kitchen appliances (cooking, laundry and cool storage)
water heating 18
lighting 5
other
losses 15 4
household consumption (% contribution per end use)
electricity consumption (% annual consumption) 17 83
residential
all other sectors
maximum demand (% maximum demand) 35 65
residential
all other sectors
(Source: DSM Sector Analysis, Residential demand: 13,908MW, Residential consumption: 46,402 GWh)

15. And then by sector Type technologies and end uses varies across market segments
LSM 1 – 3 (number of appliances)
Market segment 1 (~21% of households)
Market segment 2 (~58% of households)
Market segment 3 (~21% of households)
LSM (number of appliances)
LSM 8 – 10 (number of appliances)
6.8 m
0.2 m
0.9 m
3.2 m
1.8 m -
0.1 m
54.1 m
10.7 m
44.4 m
5.5 m
4.1 m
0.09 m
3.2 m
0.8 m
6.5 m
1.2 m
5.0 m
2.4
22.1 m
2.4 m
11.2 m
2.4 m
lighting
televisions
Kitchen appliances
Motors
geysers
Pool pumps
Fans
HVAC (heating and cooling)
(Source: Frost and Sullivan Market Analysis for Residential market 2012
2011/11/09

16. Contents
Status:
Fact Base
Objectives
Strategy
Implementation
Solution

17. Objective Setting Compressible over time Not Compressible
An Iterative Process to find the right target in time
Actual
Consumer
Energy Usage
Compressible over time
Best in Class
Best Known Technology
Not Compressible
Theoretical Best

18. Contents
Status:
Fact Base
Objectives
Strategy
Implementation
Solution

19. Fact Base to Implementation In Integrated Phased Approach
Step 1: Develop a thorough knowledge base
Step 2: Refine policy options and set targets
Step 3: Implement priority initiatives
Step 4: Establish a long-term Energy Efficiency Programme

20. Contents
Status:
Fact Base
Objectives
Strategy
Implementation
Solution

21. EE Road Map (Example Carbon Budgeting
2012
2013
2014
Jun Aug
Sept Dec
Jan Apr
Jun Aug
Sept Dec
Jan Apr
Jun Aug
Sept Dec
Plot Base line Emissions and Inventory 2011
Plot the Three Emissions Outlook 2012 to 2050
Flagship Abatement Program
Develop and Agree GHG Data MRV Meta System
Develop National Reporting System (NEIS) "MRV"
Define Regulated Entities (Unique Generic Significant Activities)
Plot Macro Abatement Potential (Top Down)
Develop Sector Abatement Potential (Bottom Up)
Identify Assess Policy Suite Options
Assess and Select Policy Suite Options
Risk Assessments and Plans as Required
Develop South Africa Abatement Potential
Finalise Activity/Sector GHG Allocations
Finalise South Africa’s Draft 1ST Country Budget
1st Pass Country 2050 Scenarios - Transitioning to a Low Carbon Economy
Urgent Next Steps
Indicative only Still to be agreed
Project

22. Contents
Status:
Fact Base
Objectives
Strategy
Implementation
Solution

23. Simultaneous Top Down & Bottom up Top Down Country Sector Bottom up
Base Line
Past Savings
Opportunities
Sector
Base Line
Past Savings
Opportunities
Bottom up
Facility
Base Line
Past Savings
Opportunities
Services
Base Line
Past Savings
Opportunities

24. Policy Integration Energy efficiency objectives
National and local spatial planning
Transport planning
Economic and industrial development
Research, innovation and skills development
Carbon abatement policies
Built environment and human settlements
Environmental policies and air quality management
CAMCO: Interaction between EE objectives and wider national development plans

25. Monitoring and Evaluation
Development of Knowledge base, including baseline setting
Formulation of Energy Efficiency Strategy & Action Plan
Target setting
Planning
Implementation
Monitoring and evaluation
Review
Project implementation
Monitoring, reporting and verification systems
Policy integration
Strategy and Action Plan review
Target review
Performance improvements and decision making
Review of cost-effectiveness
Data monitoring and analysis
Reporting of results
Target evaluation

26. Thank You