1. Money Growth and Inflation
Chapter 16
Money Growth and Inflation 1 1 1 1

2. Overview The causes of inflation Money supply, demand and equilibrium
The effects of monetary injection
The quantity of money theory
The costs of inflation 2 2 2

3. Inflation: Its Causes and Costs
Inflation is a sustained increase in the price level. It is a continuous increase versus a “once-and-for-all” increase in prices.
Inflation deals with the increase in the average of prices and not just significant increases in the price of a few goods. 3 3 3 3

4. Inflation: Historical Aspects
Over the past sixty years, prices have risen on average about 4 percent per year.
Deflation, a situation of decreasing prices, occurred in the nineteenth century.
In the 1970’s prices rose by 7 percent per year.
In the 1990’s prices rose about 2 percent per year. 4 4 4 4

5. The Causes of Inflation
Inflation is an economy-wide monetary phenomenon that concerns, first and foremost, the value of an economy’s medium of exchange.
To understand the cause of inflation as a monetary phenomenon we must understand the concepts of Money Supply, Money Demand, and Monetary Equilibrium. 5 5 5 5

6. Overview The causes of inflation Money supply, demand and equilibrium
The effects of monetary injection
The quantity of money theory
The costs of inflation 2 6 6

7. Money Supply and Money Demand
Money Supply is a variable of the Bank of Bangladesh. Through instruments such as open market operations, the B of B directly controls the quantity of money supplied.
Money Demand has several determinants including:
interest rates
average level of prices in the economy 6 6 7 7

8. Money Supply and Money Demand
People hold money because it is the medium of exchange. The amount of money people choose to hold depends on the prices of the goods and services.
In the long-run, the overall level of prices adjusts to the level at which the demand for money equals the supply. 7 7 8 8

9. Money Supply, Money Demand and Equilibrium Price Level
Value of
Money
Money Supply
Price
Level
Equilibrium
Price Level
Equilibrium
Value of
Money
Money
Demand
QFixed 8 8 9 9

10. Monetary Equilibrium The supply curve shifting to the right
The B of B could inject money (monetary injection) into the economy by buying government bonds. Results would be:
The supply curve shifting to the right
The equilibrium value of money decreasing
The equilibrium price level increasing
This process is referred to as the
quantity theory of money. 9 9 10 10

11. Overview The causes of inflation Money supply, demand and equilibrium
The effects of monetary injection
The quantity of money theory
The costs of inflation 2 11 11

12. The Effects of Monetary Injection
MS1
Value of
Money
Price
Level
Money
Demand
QFixed 10 10 12 12

13. The Effects of Monetary Injection
MS1
Value of
Money
Price
Level PE
VME
Money
Demand
QFixed 11 11 13 13

14. The Effects of Monetary Injection
MS1
Value of
Money
(High)
Price
Level
(Low) PE
VME
Money
Demand
Low
High
QFixed 12 12 14 14

15. The Effects of Monetary Injection
MS1
MS2
Value of
Money
(High)
Price
Level
(Low) PE
VME
Money
Demand
Low
High
QFixed 13 13 15 15

16. The Effects of Monetary Injection
MS1
MS2
Value of
Money
(High)
Price
Level
(Low) PE
VME
VME PE
Money
Demand
Low
High
QFixed 14 14 16 16

17. Overview The causes of inflation Money supply, demand and equilibrium
The effects of monetary injection
The quantity of money theory
The costs of inflation 2 17 17

18. Cause of Inflation: The Quantity of Money Theory
The quantity of money available in the economy determines the value of money. Growth in the quantity of money is the primary cause of inflation.
Some macroeconomic variables are unchanged, given changes in the supply of money. (Hume) 15 15 18 18

19. Monetary Neutrality
An increase in the rate of money growth raises the inflation but does not affect any “real” variables (e.g. production, employment, real wages, and real interest rates.) Such irrelevance of monetary changes for “real” variables is called monetary neutrality. 16 16 19 19

20. Velocity and The Quantity Equation
“How many times per year is the typical dollar bill used to pay for a newly produced good or service?”
The velocity of money refers to the speed at which the typical dollar bill travels around the economy from wallet to wallet. 17 17 20 20

21. Velocity and The Quantity Equation
V = (P x Y) ÷ M
Where: V = Velocity
P = The average price level
Y = the quantity of output
M = the quantity of money
Rewriting the equation gives the quantity equation.
M x V = P x Y 18 18 21 21

22. Five Step Foundation to The Quantity Theory of Money
The velocity of money is relatively stable over time.
A proportionate change in the nominal value of output is related to changes in the quantity of money by the B of C.
Because money is neutral, money does not affect output. 19 19 22 22

23. Five Step Foundation to The Quantity Theory of Money
Changes in the money supply which induce parallel changes in the nominal value of output are also reflected in changes in the price level.
When the B of C increases the money supply rapidly, the result is a high rate of inflation. 20 20 23 23

24. Hyperinflation & Inflation Tax
Hyperinflation is inflation that exceeds 50 percent per month.
Hyperinflation in some countries is caused because the government prints too much money to pay for their spending. 21 21 24 24

25. Hyperinflation & Inflation Tax
When the government raises revenue by printing money, it is said to levy an inflation tax. An inflation tax is like a tax on everyone who holds money.
The inflation ends when the government institutes fiscal reforms such as cuts in government spending. 22 22 25 25

26. Relationship Between Money, Inflation and Interest Rates
Nominal Interest Rate =
Real Interest Rate + Inflation Rate
Over the long run, a change in the money growth should not affect the Real Interest Rate thus, the Nominal Interest Rate must adjust one-for-one to changes in the Inflation Rate. 23 23 26 26

27. Relationship Between Money, Inflation and Interest Rates
When the B of C increases the rate of money growth, the result is both a high inflation rate and a higher nominal interest rate. This is called the
Fisher Effect 24 24 27 27

28. Quick Quiz!
The government of a country increases the growth rate of the money supply from 5 percent per year to 50 percent per year. What happens to prices?
What happens to nominal interest rates?
Why would the government be doing this? 25 25 28 28

29. Overview The causes of inflation Money supply, demand and equilibrium
The effects of monetary injection
The quantity of money theory
The costs of inflation 2 29 29

30. The Costs of Inflation
At least six costs of inflation are identified as:
. Shoeleather costs
. Menu Costs
. Increased variability of relative prices
. Tax liabilities
. Confusion and inconvenience
. Arbitrary redistribution of wealth 26 26 30 30

31. The Costs of Inflation: Shoeleather Costs
Inflation reduces the real value of money, so people have an incentive to minimize their cash holdings. Less cash requires people to make frequent trips to the bank because they keep their money in interest bearing accounts.
Extra trips to the bank takes time away from productive activities. 27 27 31 31

32. The Costs of Inflation: Menu Costs
During inflationary times, it is necessary to update price lists and other posted prices.
This is a resource-consuming process that takes away from other productive activities. 28 28 32 32

33. The Costs of Inflation: Increased Variability of Relative Prices
During times of rising prices, there will be a delay between price increases. While these prices are constant, other prices will be rising. It then becomes difficult to know exact relative prices as prices change irregularly. 29 29 33 33

34. The Costs of Inflation: Unintended Changes in Tax Liability
With inflation, unadjusted incomes are treated as real gains. Consequently, with progressive taxation, rising nominal incomes are taxed more heavily. 30 30 34 34

35. The Costs of Inflation: Confusion and Inconvenience
With rising prices, it is necessary to constantly make corrections in order to compare real revenues, costs, and profits over time. The time spent making these adjustments could have been spent producing more goods and services. 31 31 35 35

36. The Costs of Inflation: Arbitrary Redistribution of Wealth
With unanticipated or incorrectly anticipated inflation, wealth is redistributed between net monetary debtors and creditors. This may result in wealth transfers that would not otherwise be acceptable.
Recall the Fisher Effect. 32 32 36 36

37. The Inflation Fallacy
Fallacy: “Inflation reduces individuals’ incomes and causes living standards to decline.”
Fact: “One person’s inflated price is another’s inflated income.” Unless incomes are fixed in nominal terms, the higher prices paid by consumers are exactly offset by the higher incomes received by sellers. 33 33 37 37

38. Overview The causes of inflation Money supply, demand and equilibrium
The effects of monetary injection
The quantity of money theory
The costs of inflation 2 38 38